Micro Game Logging with Tarik Skubal

I’ll come right out with it: I have a WHIP roto-score of a 1. Ok? There. I said it. This makes for tense viewing experiences when I get to sit down and actually watch one of my starting pitchers. Every infield single has me yelling, “That was recorded as a hit!?” But, if I weren’t actually watching the game, I would have only seen the hits and walks and innings pitched portion of a starting pitcher’s line and just assumed they gave up too many.  Luckily, watching Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal on Wednesday assured me that he’s still a guy to roster and that he had some bad luck. This is not to say that Skubal’s game line was bad, but I’m super sensitive about my WHIP and last week’s game in Kansas City reinforced in my mind how important checking a game log can be before making drop decisions. Let’s use Skubal’s most recent outing as an example and do some micro game logging and play logging to focus on the hits allowed.

NOTES: Solid start. Hit number one comes off a 3-1 slider to Perez. What can you do? Good hitters are going to hit that pitch and in a 3-1 count, it’s probably going to be a hit or a walk. No sweat.

 

NOTES: Hit number two comes from a 1-2 four-seamer (meatball?) that could probably be marked as a mistake. It happens. Skubal keeps his composure and get’s the next three outs. It’s all good.

 

NOTES: Hit number three is an infield single? I guess. I don’t know too many people who would call this an error, but this is the point where investigating the game log shines more light. The Santana “Baltimore Chop” puts a runner on for the home run and adds an “unearned-earned run” in my opinion. Skubal’s game 41.2% ground ball rate, matched up with Detriot’s -29 DRS (tied for league-worst as of this writing) makes this kind of thing happen. Hit number four is tough to take, scoring two runs on a Salvador Perez jack. I would have never known that the two-run shot should have really only been a one-run shot, had I not been watching the game.

 

NOTES: Hit number five comes off a Hanser Alberto bloop. I wish I could find the catch probability on this one, but let’s just say Hanser earned his way on. The next play, however, should have turned two and taken some of the pressure off of Skubal but instead puts two runners on and brings the hit tally to five.

Regardless, Skubal worked his way up to a 1.26 leverage index with runners on first and third and retired Whit Merrifield on four pitches, two of them swinging strikes.

 

NOTES: The young Detroit pitcher came back out for the fifth and sixth innings, recorded one more walk, two more strikeouts, and induced a lot of soft contact to keep himself in line for the win.

Here are some great images that help tell the story of Skubal’s six-hit outing:

This was a great outing by Skubal. With a little more luck on his side (and maybe a better defense), those three earned runs would have been two. With even more luck (and an even better defense) his six hits would have been three. Oftentimes readers are looking for actionable items that they can apply to their own teams and game logging before making brash decisions is one that can be accomplished all here on FanGraphs, supplemented by Baseball Savant and the MLB film room.