Finding Relief Without Saves

Is there really anything worse than having to chase saves? Sure, chasing steals isn’t fun either but given that saves can often be as much about opportunity as talent, spending FAAB to play a weekly carnival game of Whack-a-Closer is extra annoying. So, let’s take a break from the save race and talk about some non-closing (NC) relievers that can return overall value even if they’re not going to supply much of the glamour stat that everyone desires.

Using NC relievers isn’t going to be for everyone and a lot of that will depend on your current team construction and categorical goals. For example, if your pitching scores are fine with ratios but lacking in the counting (wins, strikeouts, saves) stats, you’re probably going to be better served by using lesser starters, more often. Or, maybe you’re like me and due to poor performances and/or injuries have had to punt ratios in favor of throwing any (and every) starter against the wall.

However, some lucky ducks are tracking pretty with their counting stats but maybe need some ratio help. Or perhaps you’re ahead of the game enough to shine up your ratios but not so much ahead that you can afford to do so while letting your attention to wins and strikeouts lapse. For those traveling this middle-ish path, rotating (or holding) NC relievers can offer the best of both worlds.

Using the Fangraphs auction calculator, let’s take a look at a few widely available relievers that are returning solid value even without saves and see if they can keep it up by giving your roster a little bit of everything else.

To get things started, listed below are the top-30 relievers as of July 9, as well as their current Roster% on Yahoo:

Top-30 Relievers by Total Value
Name Y% Dollars mW mSV mSO mERA mWHIP
1 Josh Hader 99% $23.6 -$3.2 $9.2 -$1.3 $5.3 $3.8
2 Craig Kimbrel 93% $19.8 -$6.4 $8.6 -$1.8 $5.3 $4.2
3 Liam Hendriks 98% $19.6 -$3.2 $9.7 -$1.5 $1.0 $3.8
4 Ryan Pressly 92% $19.4 -$1.7 $6.5 -$2.5 $3.8 $3.4
5 Matt Barnes 88% $18.0 -$1.7 $8.1 -$1.0 $0.3 $2.3
6 Raisel Iglesias 94% $18.0 $1.5 $7.6 -$0.8 -$2.5 $2.4
7 Alex Reyes 89% $16.4 -$0.1 $8.6 -$1.8 $4.0 -$4.2
8 Brad Hand 92% $13.7 -$1.7 $8.1 -$3.7 $1.0 $0.1
9 James Karinchak 92% $12.7 -$0.1 $2.7 -$0.5 $0.6 $0.2
10 Jonathan Loaisiga 36% $12.4 $3.0 -$1.0 -$2.7 $2.2 $1.0
11 Mark Melancon 91% $12.3 -$4.8 $11.8 -$4.3 $1.7 -$2.0
12 Jake McGee 83% $12.3 -$3.2 $7.0 -$3.4 -$0.3 $2.3
13 Kenley Jansen 95% $12.1 -$7.9 $9.2 -$3.1 $4.1 $0.1
14 Giovanny Gallegos 51% $11.7 -$0.1 -$1.5 -$1.9 $0.0 $5.4
15 Andrew Kittredge 31% $11.5 -$0.1 -$1.0 -$3.1 $3.9 $2.0
16 Richard Rodriguez 76% $11.3 -$1.7 $3.8 -$4.6 $0.9 $3.1
17 Ranger Suarez 24% $11.1 -$1.7 -$1.5 -$4.2 $4.8 $3.8
18 Chad Green 35% $10.6 -$3.2 -$0.5 -$2.4 $1.8 $5.0
19 Kendall Graveman 60% $10.1 -$4.8 $2.2 -$4.9 $3.7 $4.1
20 Edwin Diaz 95% $10.0 -$3.2 $7.6 -$2.7 -$0.5 -$0.9
21 Lou Trivino 72% $8.5 -$3.2 $4.9 -$3.6 $2.6 -$2.0
22 Paul Sewald 15% $8.1 -$0.1 -$1.5 -$2.9 $2.4 $0.4
23 Will Smith 84% $7.9 -$3.2 $7.0 -$2.6 -$2.1 -$0.9
24 Emmanuel Clase 73% $7.4 -$3.2 $3.8 -$3.3 $3.4 -$3.1
25 Jordan Romano 69% $6.8 -$1.7 $1.1 -$3.5 $2.3 -$1.4
26 Tyler Rogers 61% $6.2 -$6.4 $3.3 -$5.0 $3.9 $0.6
27 Taylor Rogers 62% $5.8 -$4.8 $2.2 -$2.1 $0.8 -$0.2
28 Tejay Antone 35% $5.8 -$4.8 -$0.5 -$3.0 $2.3 $2.0
29 Garrett Whitlock 10% $5.7 -$3.2 -$1.5 -$2.6 $4.2 -$0.9
30 Aroldis Chapman 97% $5.1 -$0.1 $6.5 -$2.0 -$4.1 -$5.0

 

Jonathan Loaisiga, NYY (RP 10, Yahoo: 36%)

46 IP: 7 W – 45 K – 2 SV – 2.15 ERA – 0.98 WHIP

Bucking trends, Loasiga has turned into a primarily sinker guy, with his 55.1% usage up from 24.6% in 2020 and 8.6% in 2019, with his four-seamer dropping from 42.6% to 4.9%. With his velocity also up nearly 2 mph, batters have done little against the sinker, posting a .234 xwOBA and .229 xSLG that are far removed from a .344 xwOBA and .435 xSLG in 2020. And while the sink has decreased slightly at the higher velocity, its horizontal movement has increased by one inch.

Whether Loaisiga has increased his sinker usage to better take advantage of any seam-shifted wakefulness (-45 minute deviation), is a question for another day but his sinker/curveball combination (86% combined usage) has dominated right-handed hitters in 2021, allowing just a combined .154 wOBA, .161 xwOBA, with a .196 wOBA and .210 xwOBA on-contact.

In terms of both performance and usage, Loaisiga carries many of my favorite qualities when looking for an under-the-radar reliever. The overall usage is high, with his 46 IP trailing only Craig Stammen (50IP and Duane Underwood Jr. (50IP) among (non-starting) relievers, but is also consistent. Averaging 3.1 IP per week, Loaisiga has pitched less than three innings in only three weeks this season, staying between 3.0 – 4.1 IP in the other eleven periods.

The rest of his value has been earned by the seven wins (and two saves). You’re not trying to get rich by predicting which relievers pick up “random” wins and saves but what I like about Loaisiga is how in the mix he tends to be whenever it’s decision time. His seven wins are tied for second among relievers but his 10 decisions are also the second-most, and he’s collected 10 holds and two saves in four opportunities.

The ratios are obviously stellar and the ERA evaluators agree (albeit, not quite as much), with his 2.15 ERA being backed by a 2.21 xERA and 2.63 FIP. However, it’s also worth noting that Loaisiga has allowed 11 ER for the season but that eight of those came in just two appearances. Across the 45 IP across his other 33 appearances, Loaisiga has a 0.60 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.

Loaisiga’s 25.0% K% is up a 22.0% K% in 2020 and while his 28.0% CSW% is down from a 29.4% CSW%, his 39.9% O-Swing% is up nearly five-points and his 13.6% SwStr% is up from 10.2% SwStr%.  His strikeout rates aren’t special but they’re good enough when combined with his heavy usage and his 45 K are the 37th-most among relievers. No, being in the top-40 isn’t exactly impressive but remember that we’re looking for guys with wholes that are bigger than their pieces and an above-average strikeout rate carries enough weight when combined with the rest of his value pie.

Ranger Suarez, PHI (RP 17, Yahoo: 24%)

32.2 IP: 4 W – 31 K – 1 SV – 0.83 ERA – 0.70 WHIP

Let’s go to the other end of the spectrum and look at a reliever whose top-20 value on paper looks more inflated but whose future value could rise. Suarez’s value has come almost entirely from his ratios but his elite 0.83 ERA is built on a lot of sand, with a 2.60 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 3.35 xFIP, and 3.02 SIERA. However, those certainly aren’t terrible and are actually quite similar to what Loaisiga has been running.

Like Loaisiga, Suarez also has a very average 25.2% K% and has only collected 31 K but remember that he didn’t make his first appearance until May 9. Not including his debut (where he pitched two innings on the last day of the period), Suarez has averaged nearly four innings (with a minimum of two appearances) over the previous eight scoring periods.

Heavy usage? Check. Relatively average strikeout rate that’s buoyed by aforementioned heavy usage? Check. Excellent ratios that will still be very good even if they start regressing towards their evaluators? Check.

Yeah, but how is his “In the Mix” rating*? Well, it doesn’t look very impressive with a 4-2 record, one save in three chances, and zero holds. But again, keep in mind that he didn’t pitch until halfway through May and since then the Phillies have steadily used him in high-leverage situations. And definitely don’t forget that the Philadelphia bullpen has been a hot mess all season, with Hector Neris, Archie Bradley, and Jose Alvarado all failing to grab a hold of the closer’s role.

*No patent pending

Suarez is currently getting a ride on the Phillies closer-by-committee carousel and promptly blew his first two save opportunities, although both were multiple innings affairs, before bouncing back to pick up his first save on July 3. He hasn’t had an opportunity since but neither has Philadelphia. While it’s probably foolish to bet on a player seizing the role for good, Suarez should at least continue to get the odd chance, if not more.

Obviously, his value would be maximized by being the closer but like Loaisiga, Suarez brings enough to the table to earn solid fantasy dollars even if he doesn’t happen into a steady stream of saves. But he also has substantial upside right now because, unlike his Yankee counterpart, Suarez has a realistic, non-injury path to the closer’s job.

Paul Sewald, SEA (RP 22, Yahoo: 15%)

24.2 IP: 5 W – 43 K – 1 SV – 1.46 ERA – 0.97 WHIP

After dealing with pitchers who have relatively low strikeout rates, let’s dial this whiff-train up to 11 and talk about Paul Sewald. After spending four years as a substandard reliever for the Mets, Sewald has decreased his fastballs and dumped his junky changeup, going whole-hog on his nasty slider and increasing its usage to a career-high 44.5% in 2021.

With a high-spin four-seamer at the top of the zone and a filthy slider at the bottom, Sewald’s somewhat herky motion is positively giving batters fits. I mean, how do you not love someone who puts the sword away like this?

 

 

Sewald is the RP 22 by value but this is another case of his total numbers not telling the whole story, as he didn’t make his Mariners debut until May 16. And even then, he didn’t really hit his stretch of dominance until early June, posting a 4.00 ERA on eight hits and six walks over his first seven appearances (9 IP).

Since allowing three earned runs without getting an out against Oakland on June 1, Sewald has been a road grader of reliever excellence, posting a 0.00 ERA on five hits and five walks over his last 17 appearances (15.2 IP), collecting 28 K in the process.

While Roster Resource currently has Sewald in a committee, Kendall Graveman has settled back down for the Mariners after returning rocky from the COVID IL on June 12 and allowing earned runs in three of his first four appearances back. But since then, he’s allowed zero runs and picked up three saves in his last six appearances and I still see him as getting the majority of save chances as long as he’s running well. However, while more saves would be great, I believe Sewald has enough strikeouts (and usage) to earn plenty of value even without them.





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Kid Charlemagnemember
2 years ago

What about Collin McHugh?

al_beast
2 years ago

People stay sleeping on the middle relief degrom this year