Today inaugurates what will likely several weeks of depth chart discussions. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the Toronto Blue Jays‘ rotation and bullpen situations.

The Rotation

Frankly, it seems clear-cut at the top. Marcus Stroman isn’t an ace, contemporarily speaking, but his blend of sharp command and ground ball tendencies make him an attractive mid-rotation option. R.A. Dickey, the former National League Cy Young Award winner, hasn’t generated much in the way of fantasy value in standard leagues but, nonetheless, slots in as the team’s #2.

I wouldn’t say it gets dicier from there, but: it gets dicier from there.

Marco Estrada is, presumably, the Blue Jays’ #3. And while a two-year, $26 million contract would certainly warrant it, keep in mind that Estrada hasn’t stuck in the rotation for a full season — ever. Well, except in 2013, he did, but he only started 21 games. Why has he bounced back and forth, you ask?

You didn’t ask, because you already know. The answer screams in your face: Estrada has allowed 92 home runs in 99 starts. His 1.42 HR/9 as a starter is the second-highest among those who have thrown at least 550 innings since 2011. If the Blue Jays want to let their opponents to go punch for punch with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, they found their man.

Problem is, the solutions aren’t significantly better. J.A. Happ comes off his best season, during which he scraped together one-third of his career WAR (wins above replacement) in about one-sixth of his career playing time. Fractions, man. Anyway, he shaved off a big chunk of the walk rate (BB%) that made him largely ineffective for the majority of his rather long and decidedly lackluster career, and it propped him up.

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Yesterday, we looked in on one of the top closer-setup tandems outside of the Bronx. Zach Britton and Darren O’Day are the best at what they do. As it turns out, the Marlins also have a couple elite relievers who are the very best at something – A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps.

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With the departure of Francisco Rodriguez, the Milwaukee closer role is Will Smith’s to lose. Smith took big steps last season improving his K%, BB%, ERA (or FIP, if that’s more your cup of tea), HR/9, and K:BB%. Smith is trending in the right direction with all of these metrics.

The main reason it would seem that Smith has improved so well is his pitch selection. Smith started using his fastball less, particularly his 2-seamer, and increased the usage of his slider, which is by far his most effective pitch. Outside of 2012, his wSL has been his most positive pitch, combining for 16.1 runs above average for the past three years. His fastball, on the other hand, has graded out at negative 21.4 over the past four years. Could he become the next Andrew Miller?

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For the second straight season, Minnesota Twins closer Glen Perkins suffered a second half swoon. This one was more pronounced, as the left-hander carried a 1.21 ERA into the All Star Break and a 7.32 mark afterward.

The decline came in pretty much every facet of Perkins’ game. He threw 37.1 innings in the first half but just 19.2 after the break due to neck and back issues that led some to question his conditioning. Nevertheless, even when he was healthy enough to pitch, he was getting blasted. Check out his opponents’ hitting splits:

First Half: .188/.217/.246 (.206 wOBA)
Second Half: .356/.394/.674 (.447)

They slugged .674! SIX. SEVENTY. FOUR. That’s 25 points higher than what NL MVP Bryce Harper slugged. Of course, any kind of physical issue dealing with the core is going to sap a pitcher’s effectiveness, and make his stuff much worse than it’d usually be. Read the rest of this entry »

When the eighth and ninth innings roll around, the Orioles will turn to a familiar pair of relief aces. Zach Britton just pitched the best season of his life. In one regard, he is the best player in all of Baseball Land. His setup man, Darren O’Day, is also the very best in his own quirky way.

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As we creep ever closer to the 2016 season, there’s still one position we haven’t covered from 2015. For the final time, we look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. We enter the magical realm of the bullpen, where no man should venture lest he get bubble gum placed atop his hat.

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There aren’t a lot of ways to predict closer change. Don’t go looking at ERA, projected or past, it’s not useful. Nor are three-Year Fielding Independent Pitching stats, even if those give you a bigger sample. Experience closing? Nah. Shutdown percentage? Nope. It’s not even important whether the pitcher was the favorite or a bullpen committee member. Depth of arsenals — and platoon splits on pitches — seem important, but aren’t really.

These things don’t seem to matter much when it comes to closer changes.

The list of things that might matter is super short, and the effects not so large that you’d want to stake your life on them. Reliever strikeout rate and velocity is important — new closers have higher rates and more velocity than the closers they replace, at least. Closers have slightly more experience in general (they are older). And lefty closers are about half as likely as you’d expect given the population of lefties in the game. Closers usually come from the end of the bullpen, so role is important.

We could use these facts to create a list of relievers that might close this year, really. If you then somehow controlled for the excellence of the closer in front of them, you could even sort this list for likelihood of change. Then we’d have the Non Closers Most Likely to Close This Year. Seems possible.

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Valuing injured pitchers who plan on returning at a later date can be tough to do correctly. Yu Darvish an example of such a pitcher. After having Tommy John surgery in mid-March this past season, Darvish should return some point after mid-May (14-month rehab is the norm now). An owner can expect above replacement level from Darvish, but for a couple months, a lesser pitcher will be used. I will step through the process of valuing Darvish by combining his value with a replacement level pitcher.

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It’s best of and worst of week at RotoGraphs. I’m here with 2015’s worst starting pitchers.

There’s a lot of ways to approach this. A lot of pitchers’ values are conditional upon their circumstances, so I’ve tried to keep this in mind when creating this list. When it comes down to it, though, this is all just one man’s opinion.

Fantasy Pros calculated the aggregate average draft position (ADP) using several premier fantasy baseball websites, so that’s the value upon which I’ve based my decisions.

But first, let us acknowledge 2015’s All-Injury Sigh Young Squad:

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• He allowed a two-run homer to Lucas Duda, but Ken Giles otherwise held on for his 14th save of the year. Giles was a top tier non-save relief option last year and he’s kept it up this season while accumulating saves. His K% dropped to 29.6% from a ridiculous 38.6% last year but a 30% strikeout rate is still elite and although he’ll continue to close on the Phillies, Giles should be a prime target in 2016.

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