A few quick notes from Sunday:
• Jake McGee had a bad night allowing five earned in less than an inning. Every dog has it’s (bad) day and I don’t think McGee’s job is in danger but we’ll keep Colorado yellow for now. Miguel Castro who pitched himself into setup duty was put on the DL with an apparent non-serious shoulder injury. Chad Qualls and Boone Logan both move up a spot with McGee still ahead provided he doesn’t repeat last night’s performance.
Keone Kela had surgery to remove a bone spur and will miss around three months. The closer and set-up roles remain intact for now, but the next in line is a little foggy. Jake Diekman seems like a solid option to fill that role based on his numbers so far. I put Anthony Barnette in that role for now since he was given the 7th inning today with a 2-1 lead, and had a clean inning. Not saying that he is better than Diekman, but simply based on potential usage, it looks like Barnette will at least be given a shot to be next in line. As I write about Barnette, Sam Dyson lets up a home run to Todd Frazier that ties up the game. Then gives up the go-ahead run through a series of walks, HBPs, and hits. Dyson is still strong enough to keep the set-up role and is still in line for saves if Shawn Tolleson falters. Speaking of blowing the lead, David Robertson blew his first save of the year. After allowing a lead-off walk to Desmond, Desmond advanced to third on an error during his stolen base. He would then score on a sacrifice fly. Robertson also allowed a single, but also had two strikeouts.
• Kevin Jepsen entered the ninth inning in a tied game this afternoon but a Yadiel Rivera double (who advanced to third on an error) and a Scooter Gennett RBI single gave the Brewers the lead and the eventual loss for Jepsen, his third of the year. It’s only been a few games but Jepsen has been about as effective as he was last year (3.81 xFIP in 2016 and 4.04 in 2015) but his 4.05 ERA doesn’t look as shiny as the 2.33 ERA he had last year. This wasn’t a particularly bad outing for Jepsen so no change is coming but if he continues to have a few more outings like today – Trevor May is someone to keep an eye on.
• Jeremy Jeffress needed only seven pitches for another scoreless inning today keeping his ERA at 0.00 and saving his fifth game on the year. Jeffress kills worms quite well with a career 57.6% ground ball percentage and although his K/9 sits at a less than stellar 6.75, his swinging strike rate is 14.3%, up from last year (11.4%). It’s certainly a small sample but if Jeffress can generate more whiffs while keeping the ball on the ground he could have a sneaky solid season. I wouldn’t expect a league leading save total on the Brewers but he’s hitting on a lot of the bullet points you would want to see.
• Jumbo Diaz was demoted today with Robert Stephenson getting the call up to the big leagues. J.J. Hoover hasn’t been effective at all this year and gave up another two earned this evening, but the competition behind him hasn’t been stiff enough to replace him, yet. I’ve upgraded the grid below to include Caleb Cotham who came over from New York in the Aroldis Chapman trade and hasn’t allowed a run in eight appearances this year, including a perfect inning today. I’ve also upgraded Tony Cingrani, who started the ninth inning tonight getting the first out before handing it over to Hoover, as the next-in-line. This pecking order, including J.J. Hoover, remains red hot especially with Bryan Price saying that he will sleep on the decision about J.J. Hoover as closer. I would go for Cingrani then Cotham if you’re looking to grab a quick save as I think Hoover will be removed from his role, but it’s really close to a toss-up.
• Quick Hits: Cody Allen gave up one run but earned his fourth save of the year. After a day off due to a blister issue, Roberto Osuna was back in form for a four-out save. Wade Davis walked and struck out a batter for his sixth save. Alex Colome closed his second door of the season, throwing a perfect 10th with two strikeouts. Ryan Madson was called on in the 11th to secure the lead for the A’s and it certainly looks like he’s becoming the full on closer. Sean Doolittle threw a scoreless eighth in a tie game and I’ve upgraded the A’s to yellow on the grid. John Barbato allowed the first run of his season in his two innings of work but he still looks like a keeper in the Yankees pen. He won’t be able to leap frog Dellin Betances or Andrew Miller who both threw scoreless innings tonight (continuing their perfect seasons ERA-wise) but he’s another ratio and strikeout helper to rely on. The Yankees might have the best bullpen in the league even if Aroldis Chapman never throws a pitch.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
• Quick Notes from Sunday: Ryan Madson received and finished another save opportunity last night against the Royals earning his fourth save on the year. No announcement on a change has been made but Madson has received more save chances than Doolittle thus far. I’m going to put Madson ahead on the red hot grid for now but we might be looking at a quasi-committee of sorts. Alex Colome earned his first save for the Rays and should be an option for saves until Brad Boxberger returns. Jonathan Papelbon blew his first save of the year. Jason Grilli also blew the save but Arodys Vizcaino wasn’t available and this only helps Vizcaino’s standing in the Braves pen.
And on to today’s games:
Let us not talk falsely now: Most of us Fantasy geeks know baseball stats better than we know baseball. We understand stats from the inside, but baseball incompletely and from the outside. And since everyone’s got full access to the same full set of stats and the predictions based thereon, we all know or think we know exactly the same things. There’s too much confusion; we can’t get no relief.
But what about the guys who are stat geeks, but also know baseball? Do their direct observations of the game itself, unmediated by statistics, offer a way out of the inferno of stat-geek parity? Do they have an edge over us, or would they have one, if they weren’t generously sharing with us what they see? Read the rest of this entry »
There were a lot of save opportunities today and the closers (one set-up man) were perfect in converting these saves (or at least when I published this). I won’t get into every save tonight, just the more interesting ones.
Sean Dolittle faced one batter in the 8th inning tonight after surrendering a home run the night before down by a run. Instead of turning to Doolittle for the four-out save, Bob Melvin went to Ryan Madson for the first time since he gave up two runs to the Angels. Madson wasn’t perfect and gave up an unearned run, but he did get himself his third save of the season. Using Doolitle on Friday was not necessarily ideal for Melvin, so there will still be some save opportunities ahead for Doolittle. Doolittle has given up runs in his previous two appearances, so it’s not a rock solid hold on the closer role, which seems to be inconsistent anyway with the A’s using their top relievers in high leverage situations for the most part.
Read the rest of this entry »
• After a four game slide Terry Collins didn’t play around today calling on Jeurys Familia for a five-out save. Familia answered the call pitching around a couple of hits for his second save of the year. Hansel Robles got the last two outs of the seventh (both via strikeout) and Jerry Blevins got the call to start the eighth inning with the left-handed Ichiro and Christian Yelich due up. Addison Reed still figures to be the main eighth inning set up man with Blevins playing the matchups. Although he doesn’t have the “closer experience” like Reed, Robles has some real strikeout potential and could end the year in a more prominent role behind Familia.
• Although he nailed down the last two save opportunities for the Phillies, Jeanmar Gomez has not yet been named closer with Pete Mackanin saying “I don’t want to jump to conclusions here […] Let’s keep playing it out until we see what happens.” Mackanin won’t say it, but I will – Gomez is the closer in Philadelphia. He may not have a long leash if he were to start struggling but David Hernandez and company likely won’t be seeing the next opportunity.
• Craig Kimbrel had a forgettable night for the Red Sox. Entering the ninth inning in a tie game Kimbrel allowed three runs with Chris Davis taking him deep for a 449 foot, three run homer. Kimbrel’s velocity (97.6 mph) was right in line with what you would expect from him and he still ranks among the elite closers in the game. Keep walking, nothing left to see here except future saves and loads of strikeouts.
• Fernando Rodney was able to shoot his first arrow of the year, closing the door on the Phillies today. Rodney is unlikely to be a safe haven for saves all year, whether it’s due to poor performance and a role change or a strong performance and a mid-season trade but owners should be happy with the clean save nonetheless. Rodney is certainly secure for now but Brandon Maurer is the guy to own as a handcuff.
• Jumbo Diaz received the ball in the eighth inning tonight and blew the lead for the Reds. It’s early on but Diaz’ 3.86/6.64/4.95 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line is certainly less than impressive. J.J. Hoover isn’t a stud by any means but with Diaz and Tony Cingrani (who gave up two runs of his own for the loss) struggling his job remains secure.
•Quick Hits: David Robertson threw a scoreless ninth for his third save of the year. Robertson’s ERA was a little inflated last year at 3.41 but his underlying numbers were strong as normal and he remains a great option. After Chris Davis gave the O’s the lead, Britton pitched around a Mookie Betts solo shot for his third save as well. Jonathan Papelbon (4), Mark Melancon (3) and Hector Rondon (2) also recorded clean saves tonight.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
It’s Week 1 of the MLB season, so it’s time to obsess over velocity. It’s a topic that several other FanGraphs writers have touched on, including Jeff Sullivan in his article about Felix Hernandez yesterday. As a fantasy player, I try not to overact to early-season velocity changes for established starters, but I do like to peruse the early velocity leaderboard for relief pitchers. Since there is so much bullpen turnover from year to year and since I frankly don’t know many of the young relievers who earn jobs and, in spite of whatever limitations that prevented them from sticking as starters, have a chance to become late-inning relievers in the future, I like to use velocity to identify possible relief sleepers.
Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that these are a lot tougher to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, but still difficult, of course. Given that there is more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control involved that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.
In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is difficult to balance boldness with realistic. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category.
