Phillies Playing Time Battles: Pitchers
Perhaps you’ve heard, we’re evaluating playing time battles in preparation for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. We’re still at the beginning of the process, but you can go to this post to catch up on all our previous analysis. Now, onto the Philadelphia Phillies whose pitching staff can be epitomized by a shrug.
The Rotation
After suffering through a miserable 2015 season, the Phillies look to be on the rebound. Their starters produced just 4.3 WAR – worst in the majors. Their 5.23 ERA barely outperformed the Rockies (5.27 ERA). Of course, the Phillies didn’t have to regularly pitch at Coors Field. In any case, they’ll be better this year.
Only three regular contributors will return, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Adam Morgan. None of them have a guaranteed job. Let’s start with the two guys who are locks for a role.
Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton are the staff veterans. Hellickson is a solid mid-rotation rebound gamble. After a tough start to his tenure in Arizona, he settled in to post a 3.61 ERA (4.14 xFIP) in the second half of the season.
Morton’s a ground ball specialist who has trouble staying on the field. When he’s right, he’ll produce a peripheral supported sub-4.00 ERA. Both Morton and Hellickson are merely innings eaters, but the team needs that more than an ace.
Behind the pseudo-veterans lurks Nola. It would take a minor disaster for him to lose his claim upon a rotation job, but it’s a risk. Nola, 23 in June, was the Phillies first round pick in 2014 (seventh overall). He made quick work of the minors and showed well in the majors through 13 starts.
A command and control specialist, Nola will have to learn to avoid barrels while on the job. He had a respectable 7.88 K/9 to go with 2.20 BB/9, but his 15.1 percent HR/FB ratio is cause for concern. As someone who watched most of his starts, he “earned” those home runs. Nola threw 185 innings last year so he may not have a firm innings cap.
Eickhoff, who was an unheralded part of the Cole Hamels trade, has also earned a claim to a regular rotation job. Eickhoff arguably outpitched Nola with a 2.65 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, 8.65 K/9, and 2.29 BB/9 through eight starts (51 innings). He’s a fly ball pitcher which is a small issue at Citizen’s Bank Park.
The 25-year-old is riskier than Nola in that there’s a greater chance for command issues to arise. It still isn’t a large concern. He’s mostly limited free passes throughout his career. His slider and curve are currently better swing-and-miss offerings than anything Nola throws. His primary fastball and sinker both look to be below average. When he gets into trouble, it’s because the opponent is jumping on early count fastballs.
There are a whole host of candidates for the final rotation job. At the top of the list are Matt Harrison, Brett Oberholtzer, Vincent Velasquez, and Morgan. You can probably file away the names of Jake Thompson and Mark Appel for future conversations.
The Phillies acquired Harrison as salary ballast in the Hamels trade. Back injuries have held him to just 44 innings over the last three seasons. Philadelphia probably doesn’t expect to get anything out of him, but he’ll be given a chance to prove himself healthy enough to play.
At his best, Harrison featured a low-90’s fastball with plus command. In 2011 and 2012, he posted a 3.34 ERA in 399 innings. A full recovery to his prime stuff seems unlikely. The nature of his back injury will affect his ability to regain his past velocity. Without that, he’s probably just a soft-tossing lefty.
Speaking of soft-tossing lefties, the two top candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation fit that profile. Morgan is the incumbent. In 15 starts, he was altogether too hittable. His 4.48 ERA was just a bit better than his 5.12 xFIP. When Morgan starts, at least you know he’ll throw strikes. He had 5.23 K/9 and 1.81 BB/9. Interestingly, his change and slider both rated as plus pitches. Now if only he could figure out a way around his fastball.
Oberholtzer has a lot in common with Morgan, but his fastball is a little more difficult to square up. Both pitchers top out around 89 mph, and they both get good whiff rates on a changeup and an offspeed pitch. Last year, Oberholtzer posted an uncharacteristically high 3.99 BB/9 in eight starts for the Astros. He’s usually much better than that. The winner of the job will probably be the one who shows better command in Spring Training.
The not-so dark horse candidate is Velasquez. He shared the stage with Appel as the most recognizable prospect in the Ken Giles trade. Velasquez, 24 in June, had a successful major league debut with a 4.37 ERA, 9.38 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, and a 10.5 percent swinging strike rate through seven starts and 12 relief appearances. He hums at 95 mph with his fastball, and it’s a plus pitch. He also regularly throws an adequate change and curve. PITCHf/x liked his slider the most, but it was his least thrown offspeed offering.
Taken together, that sounds like a high ceiling pitcher. So how would Harrison, Morgan, or Oberholtzer beat him for the fifth job? The criticism of Velasquez is that his offspeed stuff lacks polish and consistency. Command and control are a problem. It’s expected that the Phillies will want him to receive a little extra seasoning in the minors.
The Bullpen
As it stands, the bullpen figures to be something of a disaster zone. David Hernandez is the nominal closer. He has 19 career saves, a ninth-inning eligible fastball, and a history of strong whiff rates. He can also struggle with command and home runs. Since he’s a fly ball pitcher, his above average HR/FB ratio over the last two seasons is doubly devastating.
If it’s not Hernandez, Luis Garcia is probably the best incumbent candidate to close. He’s a ground ball pitcher with a blistering 96 mph fastball and strong whiff rates on a borderline elite slider. He can struggle mightily with control (5.00 BB/9). The soon-to-be 29-year-old is probably better suited to setup work unless he magically discovers how to locate.
Hector Neris is coming off a rough season in which he hung way too many pitches, but he has some of the raw attributes of a late-inning reliever. In particular, his 93 mph fastball, slider, and splitter led to a tidy 14 percent swinging strike rate and 9.15 K/9. He has a good 2.23 BB/9 too, but that’s linked to his fatal flaw. When contact was made, his fastball (.353 ISO allowed) and slider (.368 ISO allowed) were pounded. Sometimes, you can’t be afraid to walk a hitter.
If they want to risk ruining Velasquez or Thompson as starting prospects, either pitcher could probably slot in as an effective closer. The club has also assembled a who’s who list of former closers, namely Ernesto Frieri, Edward Mujica, and Andrew Bailey.
Frieri was an above average closer as recently as 2013. In his prime, he compiled huge strikeout rates (~13 K/9) and sketchy walk rates (~4 BB/9). More recently, the fly ball pitcher has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, and he lost three mph off his fastball.
Mujica has experienced the most recent success and should slot somewhere in the Phillies ‘pen. He’s a command and control splitter specialist. He doesn’t get many strikeouts, nor does he allow walks. The Phillies would probably be wise to use him as a ROOGY.
Bailey pitched in the majors last season for the first time since 2013. He was last successful in 2011. It was encouraging to see Bailey throw 93 mph heat with strong whiff rates. Unfortunately, the overall results were ugly. Still, if he’s entirely healthy, he’s the most likely rebound candidate to snag a late-inning role.
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Could you expand on why Nola wouldn’t have a guaranteed spot? Would it be more of a performance thing?
On a side note: Did Fangraphs just sale a bunch of new ads? I want you guys to earn lots of money, but please don’t get ad excessive.
Nola is a stone cold lock to begin the year in the rotation, and stay in it all season long. Barring injury or unforseen collapse in performance (which is true of any pitcher).
Nola is a lockity-lock-lock-lock. Book it. Pete Mackanin jsut said so:
http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/phillies-aaron-nola-will-open-next-season-in-the-phillies-rotation/
I concur. Just noting that with a young pitcher like Nola, a lock is never actually a lock. If Max Scherzer has a 16.00 spring ERA, he’s still on the opening day roster. If Nola does that, he opens in Triple-A.