Blue Jays’ Playing Time Battles: Pitchers
Today inaugurates what will likely several weeks of depth chart discussions. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the Toronto Blue Jays‘ rotation and bullpen situations.
The Rotation
Frankly, it seems clear-cut at the top. Marcus Stroman isn’t an ace, contemporarily speaking, but his blend of sharp command and ground ball tendencies make him an attractive mid-rotation option. R.A. Dickey, the former National League Cy Young Award winner, hasn’t generated much in the way of fantasy value in standard leagues but, nonetheless, slots in as the team’s #2.
I wouldn’t say it gets dicier from there, but: it gets dicier from there.
Marco Estrada is, presumably, the Blue Jays’ #3. And while a two-year, $26 million contract would certainly warrant it, keep in mind that Estrada hasn’t stuck in the rotation for a full season — ever. Well, except in 2013, he did, but he only started 21 games. Why has he bounced back and forth, you ask?
You didn’t ask, because you already know. The answer screams in your face: Estrada has allowed 92 home runs in 99 starts. His 1.42 HR/9 as a starter is the second-highest among those who have thrown at least 550 innings since 2011. If the Blue Jays want to let their opponents to go punch for punch with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, they found their man.
Problem is, the solutions aren’t significantly better. J.A. Happ comes off his best season, during which he scraped together one-third of his career WAR (wins above replacement) in about one-sixth of his career playing time. Fractions, man. Anyway, he shaved off a big chunk of the walk rate (BB%) that made him largely ineffective for the majority of his rather long and decidedly lackluster career, and it propped him up.
Except the peripherals don’t line up. Happ threw first-pitch strikes as frequently as usual, and he actually peppered the zone less often. Meanwhile, hitters didn’t really alter their approaches against him, chasing just as often as they did in past years and making contact just as frequently on such swings. It just doesn’t really add up.
Accordingly, it’s hard for this author to buy into any kind of late-career resurgence. Worse, Happ suffers the same debilitating predisposition to serving up long balls: his 0.84 HR/9 — a rather high rate, if this author dare says so himself — was only the second-best of his career. And he has never come close to eclipsing 200 innings in a season. The thing with Happ is, unlike Estrada, he has seen virtually no relief work in seven years, so the Jays will likely stomach any turbulence he brings in tow.
Jesse Chavez, despite being ranked #5 on the Jays’ depth chart, might be the rotation’s third-best option. It wouldn’t be by much, however. I’m staring to feel like a broken record, but Chavez profiles similarly to his latter two rotation-mates: lots of fly balls alongside league-average plate discipline.
And then there’s Drew Hutchison, who does nothing to shake the trend. He was inefficient, made a habit out of allowing long balls, and got BABIP’d to death. So he’s really no different than anyone else in this volatile back-half of the rotation. But he does carry some upside: he’s young, he has the ability to strike out a hitter per inning, and he simply cannot do any worse than last year.
It all leaves us with, what?, not very much. It’s hard to trust anyone in this rotation outside of Stroman and maybe Dickey, but Hutchison offers the best bang for your buck — it’ll probably be just one buck, too — with strikeout and rebound upside. Happ will likely be your overpriced bust, and Estrada will get paid half a million for every home run he allows. You better believe that Hutchison, Estrada and Chavez will be shuffling in and out of the rotation all year.
Moreover, let’s not forget: Aaron Sanchez lurks in the shadows. His live arm simply has not played up, though, and I would be loath to trust him if he cracked the rotation at any point, at least until he demonstrates at least the remotest amount of competency. Roberto Osuna lurks, too — despite closing last season, someone out there expects him to start in 2016, according to FanGraphs’ FANS projections. (He’s currently at six starts and 90 innings pitched through 13 separate fan projections.)
If I had to rank them: Stroman, Dickey, Hutchison, Chavez, Happ, Estrada, Osuna?, Sanchez???. But the middle four, they’re so close, it’s hardly worth discerning. Happ may generate the third-most value; if he did, I think it will be due to volume of innings rather than quality, and even volume is far from guaranteed with him.
The Bullpen
What’s the sensible thing for a team that saw its live-armed, cost-controlled 20-year-old shove it in the closer role? (edit 10:29 am) Acquire another closer, of course!
After handling the bulk of the 9th-inning duties for the Washington Nationals last year, the Blue Jays (edit 10:29 am EST) acquired Drew Storen in exchange for Ben Revere ahhhhh sorry I forgot geez presumably to settle into the same role north of the border. Previously a lackluster reliever, Storen’s slider was extra filthy in 2015, leading to a 43% increase (8.9 percentage points) in his strikeout rate (K%). It did not coincide with overall effectiveness, however — a sharp uptick in line drives and diminished effectiveness with men on base led to a 3.44 ERA.
But he got the job done, and that leaves Osuna in a bit of a bind. Now, it is difficult to project relievers because of repeated small samples, and Osuna has but one small sample to his name. But it sure is a pretty one — a strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) of 4.69 and a 14.7% swinging strike rate (SwStr%).
Osuna wouldn’t be a true Blue Jay, however, if he didn’t struggle with home runs. And while the struggle hasn’t manifested itself in poor performance — an 8.5% HR/FB rate and 2.58 ERA argue to the contrary — the sub-35% ground ball rate (GB%) practically begs the issue to rear its ugly head. It’s not quite Ernesto Frieri bad — there are fewer fly balls, fewer walks — but there’s a chance it balloons into something out of control.
Thus, perhaps it isn’t so crazy after all that Toronto acquired Storen. They hedged their bets for a season. Osuna can develop, refine his craft during what will be only his age-21 season. Not all is lost, but in the eyes of prospectors and Osuna owners, the Storen transaction was probably pretty disappointing.
With that said, general manger Ross Atkins hasn’t committed to a closer one way or another. A legitimate battle could ensue during spring training, and it’s possible Osuna emerges victorious. But for the time being, this author’s money is on Storen. And even if Storen lets the opportunity slip from his grasp, Osuna is a little more volatile than fans currently anticipate — Steamer expects almost half an earned run more than the fans due to regression on all those fly balls Osuna allows.
Storen was acquired via trade. He wasn’t “signed”.
Completely forgot. Fixed. Getting blasted for it! As I perhaps should.
psst it still says “signed storen” in the next-to-last paragraph. quick, before the others see
Haha… shhhhhhhh. (Fixed — thank you.)
This is a very poorly written article sir.
Jesus…
You’re not an ace… contemporarily speaking.
Sorry, couldn’t help myself.
I feel bad that I wrote this. It’s unnecessarily negative, and I hate trolls, but I can’t figure out how to delete it.
Sorry Alex.
That said Stroman will surprise you.
It’s all good. Looks like I had it coming from the rest of the comments.
I definitely like Stroman. Just not elite K’s, ya know? But he doesn’t need ’em so much with how he excels elsewhere.
The Jays traded for Storen.
Jays rotation will be hard to peg, since it’s hard to decide what to trust from last year’s values.
-Stro is obviously the #1. But after that, I think the Jays expect it to be as follows:
-Estrada as #2. Yes, he gives up HRs, but seems to have some sort of a magic curve ball that makes him better than he seems.
-Happ as #3. If his changes last year are real, he could even be up to #2, but I think that’s asking for a lot.
-Dickey as #4. He’ll eat innings. Last year his first half was awful, but his second half was great.
-Chavez as #5. They didn’t trade a good long reliever to get a different long reliever in return, so Chavez will be in the starting rotation.
-Hutch as long man/#6 option. I think he’s better than he showed last year (his FIP actually wasn’t terrible last year even if his ERA was), but he’ll only get into the rotation when injury strikes, or if one of the other guys really struggles.
I think they will eventually try out Sanchez and Osuna in the rotation, but I would think not this year, unless if they do other moves.
Dickey’s first half xFIP was 4.93, which is bad, but his second half xFIP was 4.46. Not sure that I would trust him to do to much better this year.
He’s a knuckleballer who relies on weak contact more so than strikeouts. He has the type of profile that FIP/xFIP can underrate. He was fifth in baseball by RA9-WAR in th second half of 2015. Not saying he’s a stud but there’s some hope for above average innings being amongst the platefuls he eats.
It was actually Estrada’s changeup, not curve ball, that you are referring to.
If memory serves, I’ve read two intriguing things about Estrada somewhat recently: 1) he has become a change-up specialist; 2) he changed his release point to more on top. Can’t remember what about “2” made him better, but hopefully someone else can. In the end, the net result of the two points is a much more consistent pitcher who prints out QS. Last year he was a more deceptive pitcher who generated poor contact at the expense of his Krate.
As a Jays fan, I have to say this article would have benefited from a bit more research. Stroman can very easily be considered an ace, even if he’s on the fringe of being a 20-30 best starter in the bigs type.
Estrada is also our #2. Dickey might be the #4 or 5. You are really underrating Estrada, even if you consider regression from his career year.
Oh and there’s almost no way Chavez is in the rotation as anything but a swingman.
@exxrox – swingman aren’t in the rotation…
Is this arguing semantics or just bad reading comprehension? I’ll be more clear: Chavez won’t be in the rotation. He will be the swingman. He could take turns as a starter. Perhaps for a couple or few “rotations” at a time.
If your roto “ace” is the 30th best SP. Isn’t your team in a little bit of trouble?
That’s fair. I misinterpreted roto-ace with real-ace (difference between a top-12 and top-30 guy).
Thanks for the article though, Alex. It’s good to have this as a point of reference to then make the mental adjustments as needed.
Well Happ was 28th in WAR for SP’ers last year. 2 in the top 30 would be a nice problem to have – even if neither are “true” aces.
Right — just to confirm, “ace” is in terms of roto (this is the fantasy baseball corner of FG, after all). Stroman is certainly a staff ace, but he’s not your staff ace. At least, I hope he’s not.
But if he takes a big step forward, maybe he will be!
As SP:
M.Stroman: 24gs, 77era-, 75fip-, 4.9 avg WAR/32gs
those are the first 24 starts of his career.
Couple of problems I have with this article.
1. Judging Estrada based on HR’s is short sighted. Estrada lives in the “donut” hole and provided he stays in there, he’ll continue to be much more valuable than his numbers suggest.
2. Happ was the 28th most valuable SPer in baseball last year (3.3 WAR) – is it a mirage? perhaps, but you should at least acknowledge he was very good last year and if the adjustments made in Pittsburgh are sustainable, he could be the steal of the FA market this year.
3. It’s more accurate to judge Dickey using RA9-WAR. Regardless, Dickey is what he is, an inning eating #3/#4.
I’d also mention a full season without Jose Reyes at SS (replaced with Tulo/Goins) will benefit the entire staff. As will a healthy shoulder on Jose in RF.
4. I think you’re spot on with Chavez – Jays didn’t give up a stud reliever in Hendriks to get a long man out of the pen.
5. Hutch is a wildcard. He has the talent.
6. Osuna/Sanchez may be given a shot at starting. Sanchez has a LONG way to go to be a ML starter; however, he’s effective out of the pen (although not elite). Osuna would have massive inning restrictions if converted to a starter. He also has “inverted W” mechanics and has already had TJ surgery and thus he simply may never hold up as a starter long term (although he’s miles ahead of Sanchez in terms of the ability to start).
I think Fangraphs just cannot figure out the Jays. They were wrong about how they would do in 2015. When they did lousy in 2013 Fangraphs was wrong about them too. Thought they would burn up the league. Out of the Park OTTP seems to be much more accurate? Why is that?
Can’t win ’em all. In my defense, I doubted the Jays’ rotation (pretty much the same way I do now) but still pegged them to win the AL East. It’s a juggernaut offense; even a middling rotation will do fine for them.
Steamer projects Toronto’s pitching to finish the season 11th in AL pitching WAR and 22nd among all teams. So it’s the major projection system(s) that are down as well.
In hindsight, that 2013 team was not very good. I wasn’t here back then, though.
no need for that (s). it’s only steamer.
zips likes the jays’ pitching more, and the hitters WAY more.
The hitters aren’t a question. But I think the (s) stands: ZiPS doesn’t expect any Jays pitcher to reach the 3-WAR threshold. Granted, that assumes a very modest playing time projection for Stroman, so we can ignore him. But for everyone else, ZiPS ain’t so sunny either.