Blue Jays’ Playing Time Battles: Pitchers

Today inaugurates what will likely several weeks of depth chart discussions. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the Toronto Blue Jays‘ rotation and bullpen situations.

The Rotation

Frankly, it seems clear-cut at the top. Marcus Stroman isn’t an ace, contemporarily speaking, but his blend of sharp command and ground ball tendencies make him an attractive mid-rotation option. R.A. Dickey, the former National League Cy Young Award winner, hasn’t generated much in the way of fantasy value in standard leagues but, nonetheless, slots in as the team’s #2.

I wouldn’t say it gets dicier from there, but: it gets dicier from there.

Marco Estrada is, presumably, the Blue Jays’ #3. And while a two-year, $26 million contract would certainly warrant it, keep in mind that Estrada hasn’t stuck in the rotation for a full season — ever. Well, except in 2013, he did, but he only started 21 games. Why has he bounced back and forth, you ask?

You didn’t ask, because you already know. The answer screams in your face: Estrada has allowed 92 home runs in 99 starts. His 1.42 HR/9 as a starter is the second-highest among those who have thrown at least 550 innings since 2011. If the Blue Jays want to let their opponents to go punch for punch with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, they found their man.

Problem is, the solutions aren’t significantly better. J.A. Happ comes off his best season, during which he scraped together one-third of his career WAR (wins above replacement) in about one-sixth of his career playing time. Fractions, man. Anyway, he shaved off a big chunk of the walk rate (BB%) that made him largely ineffective for the majority of his rather long and decidedly lackluster career, and it propped him up.

Except the peripherals don’t line up. Happ threw first-pitch strikes as frequently as usual, and he actually peppered the zone less often. Meanwhile, hitters didn’t really alter their approaches against him, chasing just as often as they did in past years and making contact just as frequently on such swings. It just doesn’t really add up.

Accordingly, it’s hard for this author to buy into any kind of late-career resurgence. Worse, Happ suffers the same debilitating predisposition to serving up long balls: his 0.84 HR/9 — a rather high rate, if this author dare says so himself — was only the second-best of his career. And he has never come close to eclipsing 200 innings in a season. The thing with Happ is, unlike Estrada, he has seen virtually no relief work in seven years, so the Jays will likely stomach any turbulence he brings in tow.

Jesse Chavez, despite being ranked #5 on the Jays’ depth chart, might be the rotation’s third-best option. It wouldn’t be by much, however. I’m staring to feel like a broken record, but Chavez profiles similarly to his latter two rotation-mates: lots of fly balls alongside league-average plate discipline.

And then there’s Drew Hutchison, who does nothing to shake the trend. He was inefficient, made a habit out of allowing long balls, and got BABIP’d to death. So he’s really no different than anyone else in this volatile back-half of the rotation. But he does carry some upside: he’s young, he has the ability to strike out a hitter per inning, and he simply cannot do any worse than last year.

It all leaves us with, what?, not very much. It’s hard to trust anyone in this rotation outside of Stroman and maybe Dickey, but Hutchison offers the best bang for your buck — it’ll probably be just one buck, too — with strikeout and rebound upside. Happ will likely be your overpriced bust, and Estrada will get paid half a million for every home run he allows. You better believe that Hutchison, Estrada and Chavez will be shuffling in and out of the rotation all year.

Moreover, let’s not forget: Aaron Sanchez lurks in the shadows. His live arm simply has not played up, though, and I would be loath to trust him if he cracked the rotation at any point, at least until he demonstrates at least the remotest amount of competency. Roberto Osuna lurks, too — despite closing last season, someone out there expects him to start in 2016, according to FanGraphs’ FANS projections. (He’s currently at six starts and 90 innings pitched through 13 separate fan projections.)

If I had to rank them: Stroman, Dickey, Hutchison, Chavez, Happ, Estrada, Osuna?, Sanchez???. But the middle four, they’re so close, it’s hardly worth discerning. Happ may generate the third-most value; if he did, I think it will be due to volume of innings rather than quality, and even volume is far from guaranteed with him.

The Bullpen

What’s the sensible thing for a team that saw its live-armed, cost-controlled 20-year-old shove it in the closer role? (edit 10:29 am) Acquire another closer, of course!

After handling the bulk of the 9th-inning duties for the Washington Nationals last year, the Blue Jays (edit 10:29 am EST) acquired Drew Storen in exchange for Ben Revere ahhhhh sorry I forgot geez presumably to settle into the same role north of the border. Previously a lackluster reliever, Storen’s slider was extra filthy in 2015, leading to a 43% increase (8.9 percentage points) in his strikeout rate (K%). It did not coincide with overall effectiveness, however — a sharp uptick in line drives and diminished effectiveness with men on base led to a 3.44 ERA.

But he got the job done, and that leaves Osuna in a bit of a bind. Now, it is difficult to project relievers because of repeated small samples, and Osuna has but one small sample to his name. But it sure is a pretty one — a strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) of 4.69 and a 14.7% swinging strike rate (SwStr%).

Osuna wouldn’t be a true Blue Jay, however, if he didn’t struggle with home runs. And while the struggle hasn’t manifested itself in poor performance — an 8.5% HR/FB rate and 2.58 ERA argue to the contrary — the sub-35% ground ball rate (GB%) practically begs the issue to rear its ugly head. It’s not quite Ernesto Frieri bad — there are fewer fly balls, fewer walks — but there’s a chance it balloons into something out of control.

Thus, perhaps it isn’t so crazy after all that Toronto acquired Storen. They hedged their bets for a season. Osuna can develop, refine his craft during what will be only his age-21 season. Not all is lost, but in the eyes of prospectors and Osuna owners, the Storen transaction was probably pretty disappointing.

With that said, general manger Ross Atkins hasn’t committed to a closer one way or another. A legitimate battle could ensue during spring training, and it’s possible Osuna emerges victorious. But for the time being, this author’s money is on Storen. And even if Storen lets the opportunity slip from his grasp, Osuna is a little more volatile than fans currently anticipate — Steamer expects almost half an earned run more than the fans due to regression on all those fly balls Osuna allows.