New Closer: Will Smith
With the departure of Francisco Rodriguez, the Milwaukee closer role is Will Smith’s to lose. Smith took big steps last season improving his K%, BB%, ERA (or FIP, if that’s more your cup of tea), HR/9, and K:BB%. Smith is trending in the right direction with all of these metrics.
| Season | Team | Age | IP | ERA | FIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/BB |
| 2012 | Royals | 22 | 89.2 | 5.32 | 4.66 | 5.92 | 3.31 | 1.20 | 1.79 |
| 2013 | Royals | 23 | 33.1 | 3.24 | 3.53 | 11.61 | 1.89 | 1.62 | 6.14 |
| 2014 | Brewers | 24 | 65.2 | 3.70 | 3.25 | 11.79 | 4.25 | 0.82 | 2.77 |
| 2015 | Brewers | 25 | 63.1 | 2.70 | 2.47 | 12.93 | 3.41 | 0.71 | 3.79 |
The main reason it would seem that Smith has improved so well is his pitch selection. Smith started using his fastball less, particularly his 2-seamer, and increased the usage of his slider, which is by far his most effective pitch. Outside of 2012, his wSL has been his most positive pitch, combining for 16.1 runs above average for the past three years. His fastball, on the other hand, has graded out at negative 21.4 over the past four years. Could he become the next Andrew Miller?
There are still a few things that need to happen before the previous comparison makes perfect sense, but in terms of pitch usage, Will Smith has been following a similar (actually, accelerated) path to Andrew Miller. Outside of them both having boring and generic names, both players have seen their numbers improve along with the increased usage of the slider.
Andrew Miller was not a very effective pitcher until his age-27 season, when he was moved to the bullpen. In the pen, he saw his average fastball velocity jump by around 2.5 MPH, which is expected in a move like that. His slider, however, jumped over 4 MPH, and went from a pitch that was below average (according to wSl) to a pitch that is now one of the more dominate pitches in baseball. In the two past seasons, his slider is worth 28 runs above average.
| Season | Team | Age | FB% | SL% | wFB | wSL |
| 2006 | Tigers | 21 | 68.2% (94.3) | 13.0% (83.2) | -2.6 | 0.8 |
| 2007 | Tigers | 22 | 80.8% (92.1) | 14.1% (78.5) | -10.1 | -1.5 |
| 2008 | Marlins | 23 | 75.0% (91.5) | 15.8% (77.6) | -7.6 | -3.5 |
| 2009 | Marlins | 24 | 72.5% (90.9) | 13.6% (77.7) | -5.0 | -2.3 |
| 2010 | Marlins | 25 | 63.4% (90.9) | 18.1% (77.5) | -11.9 | -3.3 |
| 2011 | Red Sox | 26 | 61.2% (92.5) | 23.3% (78.5) | -13.0 | -2.2 |
| 2012 | Red Sox | 27 | 58.3% (94.9) | 39.4% (82.8) | 0.0 | 6.3 |
| 2013 | Red Sox | 28 | 56.8% (94.9) | 43.2% (85.5) | -1.4 | 3.3 |
| 2014 | 2 Teams | 29 | 57.7% (93.9) | 42.3% (84.1) | 3.6 | 13.9 |
| 2015 | Yankees | 30 | 45.7% (94.3) | 54.3% (83.9) | -0.1 | 14 |
Will Smith also began his career as a starter at 22 years old. Well, after a 6-9 record and a 5.32 ERA, they decided to put the lefty in the pen and see what happens. For his first two years in the pen he was solid, keeping his ERA below 4, but was over-reliant on a weak arsenal of pitches. It was not until last year, when he really simplified it, that he became a force in the pen. Rarely did he throw his two-seamer or change-up anymore. Around 97% of his pitches were either fastballs, sliders, and curveballs, and the curveball was only thrown 5.9% of the time.
| Season | Team | Age | FB% | SL% | wFB | wSL |
| 2012 | Royals | 22 | 59.5% (90.5) | 6.2% (80.3) | -10.4 | -1.8 |
| 2013 | Royals | 23 | 58.2% (91.0) | 29.9% (81.7) | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| 2014 | Brewers | 24 | 55.9% (93.0) | 33.0% (81.7) | -8.7 | 5.1 |
| 2015 | Brewers | 25 | 50.6% (93.2) | 40.3% (82.0) | -1.4 | 7.1 |
In other words, Smith had done what I have been calling for in education for quite some time: instead of studying and working on a lot of information with mediocre success, why not learn a few things really well and master the few? Smith has seemingly done that as his slider grades above average. Look at his triple slash for his slider versus his fastball:
Slider: .157/.195/.261
Fastball: .286/.380/.455
Makes you wonder if he increases his slider usage, how much more effective could Smith be? If only things were that easy. Just like if only this comparison were that easy. It’s not a perfect comp because Miller has had a more effective fastball to set-up that slider. Still, Miller used his slider over 54% of the time, which was fourth in all of baseball. Smith used his slider 40% of the time last season, so there is hope he will become more aggressive with it. There is also the possibility if he overuses this pitch, hitters will wait on it and let it go in the dirt, and just keep driving the fastball. According to wFB, Smith’s fastball graded the same as Miller’s in 2013 at negative 1.4, and at Smith’s young age, it seems he will only improve.
I think Independence Day should count as at least a million saves
I personally think it’s Jeffress’ job to lose. He brings the heat and is RHP. Smith is probably more valuable playing the match-ups in the 7th and 8th.
Pretty surprised the only mention of Jeffress is in the comments
Yeah, I guess if the point of the article is that he’s good enough to be the top bullpen arm on a team, that’s one thing, but he’s not going to be the closer and this gotcha headline bs is very TMZ. Fangraphs you are better than this.
and not long after, Corey Knebel’s job to lose.
As of right now, Will Smith is the only left-hander on the 40 man roster. Unless that changes, there is absolutely no way that he will be the closer.
Good catch. Interestingly, the Brewers have only 3 players on their 40 man that throw lefty in total. So it’s not like they have a slew of emergency fielders who could fill the lefty specialist role, either.
Smith was not used as a situational lefty last season; he was pretty consistently the setup man. The Brewers don’t really have the need for a situational lefty in a season that they won’t compete. I fully expect Smith (the most valuable reliever in the pen) to get the first crack at closing, if for no other reason than to get the “proven closer” tag to up his trade value.
Smith isn’t a free agent until 2020, so even with the Brewers rebuilding there wouldn’t be much motivation to trade him unless someone overpaid. Making him the closer would not only hamstring the bullpen’s flexibility, it would increase his cost in arbitration. I don’t see it.
They’ve got a bunch of interesting LHers who are pretty close though. In fact they’d be wise to cash Smith in now or in mid-season. Mets are a great match.
I have little doubt the Brewer’s closer job will be in the hands of Jeffress first, and Knebel if Jeffress falters.
“Smith had done what I have been calling for in education for quite some time: instead of studying and working on a lot of information with mediocre success, why not learn a few things really well and master the few?”
Learning how to learn is more important than the material that is learned.
If you master one skillset and then that particular set is subsequently rendered moot due to technology or change in culture, you’re hosed.
Yeah, this may explain why (contrary to what you might have heard) philosophy majors make more than welders.
–a philosophy professor
My experience in education is with elementary and middle school, so I was not necessarily speaking from a trade perspective. I work closely with social studies, where I see teachers faced with having to teach a lot of information without the time to have students really explore and learn deeply about the arguably more “essential” events, which can also be subjective.
I should’ve been more specific in what I was referring to.
For the past two years Smith has been dominant in the first half of the season and has struggled in the second half. Maybe he can’t handle the workload that he has had? Don’t know, but it does raise questions about whether he should be a closer.