Only a few games into the season and the relief pitcher body count has already started to mount. No, none of your fantasy arms died tonight but injuries to some top rated arms seems almost unavoidable in today’s game. Earlier today the Phillies placed Pat Neshek on the 10-Day disabled list with what the Phillies are calling “Right Shoulder Strain”. This only a day after Philadelphia placed late inning reviver Tommy Hunter on the 10-Day DL as well. Neither of those two were lined directly up for save opportunities but it leaves Hector Neris on a closer island all by himself with a somewhat secure ninth inning role, even after his implosion just a night ago.

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Last week I wrote about a few lesser known opportunities within Ottoneu to maximize salary cap space, which is important to understand before your fantasy season begins.  However, by the time you read this post the fantasy season will have already begun, so I want to focus your attention today on strategies that will help you in-season as you attempt to squeeze every bit of value out of your team during what is sure to be a long but very fun Ottoneu season.

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The Cardinals have added Jordan Hicks to their major league bullpen. The move comes as a surprise with Hicks skipping both Double and Triple-A. While Hicks’s role is not defined, he’s a talented pitcher who can’t be ignored.

The 21-year-old righty has previously shown a plus fastball. Here are the various scouting reports on it.

• FanGraphs: Grade 50/55, “…routinely sitting 94 or better during the regular season, Hicks’ heater sat 97-100 in the Fall League … trouble keeping it down … doesn’t play like an 80-grade fastball…”
• MLB.com: Grade: 70, “… fastball will sit in the mid-90s, frequently touch the upper-90s and flirt with triple digits, all with plus natural movement…”
• Baseball America: Grade: 70, “… 93-98 mph with his fastball, sits 95, and touches 101 in short bursts…holds his velocity … fastball plays up further with arm side life…”
• BHQ: Grade: 4+, 93-98 “… sits 93-96, topping at 100 mph with good late sink…”

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Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that far more difficult to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, though. Given that there is both more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.

In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is challenging to balance boldness with realistic, considering this requires me to bet against a group of names in which it’s like a 95% lock that one of them wins the category. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category. I decided against a bold wins league leader, because wins are silly and unpredictable. All I usually do is pick a good pitcher on a top offense.

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It’s closing time!

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. The Bullpen Report team, plus Jeff and myself did these rankings. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Al Melchior
• Keith Farnsworth
• Ben Pasinkoff
• Greg Jewett

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

Note – The first Bullpen Report will be out this weekend!

Key:

• AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
• Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
• SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

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In a small subset of leagues, relievers who have starting pitcher eligibility are gold. If an owner hasn’t been in such a league, the following information is useless and confusing. The specific league requirements which boost these pitcher values are (Note: normally seen in Yahoo leagues):

• Daily lineup changes
• Starting and relief pitcher slots
• Inning limits

I used to be in such a league and I would scavenge the waiver wire looking for any of these pitchers. They allow an owner to accumulate great rate stats when their starter isn’t starting. Two or three can just sit permanently in the starting slots. And every year, it seems like one guy ends up getting a few Saves.

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Last week, I offered some reasons why the Diamondbacks may prefer to keep Archie Bradley away from closing duties. I’ve been snagging value shares of Brad Boxberger and Yoshihisa Hirano just in case.

One of my strongest arguments was Arizona’s starting pitcher shortage. Although their top five is a talented group, they have no depth. Bradley is probably the sixth best starter in the system. Further, they’ll need to replace Patrick Corbin next offseason. Bradley is an apparent fit for the job. However, once a pitcher becomes a successful closer, it’s very rare for them to return to starting.

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Once a preseason, it appears, we decide we like a pitcher, don’t trust our own affinities, and neither write about him nor draft him ourselves. In 2016, it was Rick Porcello, who won the Cy Young award. Last year, less catastrophically, it was Anthony Swarzak. For reasons we’ll detail below, we liked Swarzak going into the 2017 season. What, after all, was there not to like about a 31-year-old middle reliever coming off a season in which he’d had an ERA of 5.52 and an even higher FIP, and spent a month on the DL and two months in Triple-A? Even for us, connoisseurs of the preposterous, this was too preposterous, and we paid no attention to Swarzak in Fangraphs or in our myriad drafts and auctions.

You know the sequel. Swarzak was magnificent in 2017, with a 2.33 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, more than 10 strikeouts per 9 innings, and no earned runs relinquished in 18 of his first 19 appearances. According to Baseball HQ, he earned $12 in 5×5 Rotisserie—the same as Gerrit Cole and Dylan Bundy, and more than Trevor Bauer, Zach Davies, Masahiro Tanaka, and dozens of others. Read the rest of this entry »

Take a peek at the Diamondbacks reliever depth chart. Archie Bradley sits atop the pecking order. We project 22 saves. Free agent acquisition Brad Boxberger is penciled in for seven saves. Yoshihisa Hirano doesn’t have a player page yet and therefore is not listed. He’s definitely in the battle. The Diamondbacks will have more than 29 saves. Perhaps consider the rest as belonging to Hirano.

By NFBC ADP, fantasy owners believe Bradley will close. His 186 ADP is sandwiched directly between undisputed closers Brandon Morrow (185 ADP) and Blake Treinen (186 ADP). At this price, Morrow is the heist equivalent of successfully robbing Fort Knox, but that’s a subject for another day. Boxberger has a 321 ADP. Hirano is floating at a 395 ADP.

In The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (#TGFBI aka Justin Mason’s baby), Bradley has a 177 ADP. Boxberger has only been picked in two of 13 leagues (295 ADP). Hirano has found love in three leagues (298 ADP). A lot of people play NFBC. Mason’s baby is comprised of 195 self-styled fantasy baseball experts. There seems to be a resounding consensus that Bradley will close.

I wonder if he’s even the front runner to win the job. There are three problems with Archie Bradley the Closer in 2018. Read the rest of this entry »

Changing a pitcher’s pitch mix seems to be the newest path to success. Having a pitcher utilize his two to four best pitches can help him focus his arsenal for peak results. Finding these pitchers can be a huge advantage and the great and wonderful Eno Sarris used the original work to find Carlos Carrasco. I’m going to step an owner through the procedure using a few examples from the news so they can find their own diamond in the rough.

The basic idea behind changing a pitcher’s pitch mix is to have them throw as many effective pitches as possible. The original studies focused on above-average pitches. This is a simple method and one I use when examining a pitcher. The pitcher’s pitch results can be found by going to their page at FanGraphs, clicking o the Splits tab, then the Pitch Type Splits tab (example).

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