After going over the pitchers who changed their velocity from 2018 to 2019, the pitchers who have seen changes this year get highlighted today. For the first week or so, pitchers who saw major adjustments were in the crosshairs of the fantasy community. But who from that list kept the changes? A pitcher’s talent shouldn’t get anchored to one early-season report. It’s time to dive in.

About the data

• I use the fastball’s average spin rate and velocity along with the pitcher’s overall Zone% to come up in the Injury metric. With spin rate, I’ve seen pitchers try to keep up their velocity while dealing with an injury and the pitch’s spin changes. As for Zone%, if a pitcher is having issues finding the plate, they may have something mechanically wrong.
• The Injury value ranges from a -100 (several negative forces are at work) to +100 (major improvements).
• A pitcher can have more than one fastball in the table
• When examining the 2019 data, I’m comparing velocities from the past week to fastballs thrown before this past week.
• All the numbers are available in this overall spreadsheet.

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• Atlanta, we have a bullpen problem. We received word yesterday that Arodys Vizcaino is having season ending surgery on his shoulder so with him out of the picture for good, the Braves bullpen is reliant on the names we have been talking about all week – A.J. Minter, Chad Sobotka, Jesse Biddle, Dan Winkler, Shane Carle, and Wes Parsons. Al went over their situation yesterday and nothing has really changed besides the fact that Jesse Biddle struggled last night in extra innings walking three batters and taking the L. While Vizcaino’s season ending injury and the struggles across the Braves bullpen makes Minter the obvious saves candidate, as Al mentioned in great detail, he hasn’t been effective. Minter threw a scoreless inning last night but also allowed two hits generating 3 whiffs on 17 pitches. His velocity still isn’t at his previous levels and while nobody is barking up the Braves tree right now, something could change…

Craig Kimbrel is still lurking as a free agent and given the Braves bullpen struggles this would be a perfect fit. The Brewers have been most attached to Kimbrel although the Braves are “monitoring” the situation. Kimbrel to Atlanta makes a ton of sense but expecting the Braves to spend money here given their recent histories doesn’t make as much sense. If the Braves pass on Kimbrel the other options aren’t that attractive, which is good for Minter owners but bad for Braves fans. One possible down-the-road option could be  one or two members of the Braves bevvy of pitching talent moving to the bullpen and succeeding. Touki Touissant is now in the rotation but if someone like him moved to the pen it might not be long until they’re pitching in the 9th inning.

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I love middle relievers in fantasy baseball. I play in a lot of deeper formats where they are viable as staff supplements even if Holds isn’t a category so I’m always looking out for the next big thing. I’m not completely averse to buying a Josh Hader (although that might be a bad example this year as he’s been the de facto closer with Corey Knebel out for the year and Jeremy Jeffress yet to debut), Dellin Betances, or this year’s draft darling, Ryan Pressly, but a major key to the value of middle relievers is that they’re cheap. Finding the next Hader, Betances, or Pressly is much more useful and can often be done on the fly in-season.

With today’s tattered starting pitcher landscape, middle relievers are as popular as ever, so we need to get the jump on the next big thing since more eyes are searching for them. It’s only April 16th so reliever samples are especially small as only 20 guys have even 10 innings, but I’ve still got my eye on 10 middle men who could help stop the bleeding for those of us toting the obscene ERAs of Carlos Carrasco (12.60), Nick Pivetta (9.45), Chris Sale (9.00), Walker Buehler (8.25), Zack Wheeler (7.47), Aaron Nola (7.45), Corey Kluber (6.16), and more. Some of these guys could even become their team’s closer which would only add to their fantasy value, but that is not a major consideration for this list.

Diego Castillo, TB | 30% K, 10% BB, 14% SwStr, .111 AVG in 9 IP

Castillo is part of a 1-2 punch at the backend of Tampa Bay’s bullpen with closer Jose Alvarado. The righty/lefty duo (Castillo being the righty) had strong seasons in 2018, too, and came into the season battling for the closer’s role. Alvarado won out, but Castillo is a key part of the bridge to the ninth and has already nabbed five Holds in his eight appearances.

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UPDATE: Right after publishing, Arodys Vizcaino was placed on the IL with shoulder information. Vizcaino’s shoulder issues were documented throughout the early going of the season but he seemed to be OK. Clearly that’s not necessarily the case with Vizcaino now on the IL. We don’t know how long Vizcaino will be on the shelf for, whether it’s rest or something larger. In his place, A.J. Minter is the clear first option with Chad Sobotka, Jesse Biddle, Wes Parsons and really everyone else in the back of the Braves pen behind them.

• After using Ian Kennedy to preserve the win on Friday the Royals turned to Wily Perlata in the 9th last night for the save, his first of the year. Ian Kennedy threw a perfect 8th inning with two strikeouts setting up Peralta and this remains a no doubt committee. It’s hard to tell who the favored option is on any given day with Brad Boxberger in the mix as along with Jake Diekman as a lefty also throwing high leverage innings. Ian Kennedy was used in the 6th and 7th innings on 4/10  but since then he’s been used in the 9th and 8th innings in back-to-back appearances. Brad Boxberger has the most traditional closer stuff and background but he’s allowed three runs in his last two appearances, and overall hasn’t been particularly effective. We still have him atop the grid given his background but he’s code red with Kennedy and Peralta right behind. Kennedy’s ability to be used for longer outings might preclude him from being a typical late inning option but he’s been the best reliever in their pen so far and at some point the cream will rise to the top, or the closer role in this case.

• When it feels like everyone is using a committee, it can be nice to see one situation possibly be breaking free, which brings us to Minnesota. Blake Parker got his third save in the 9th, with Taylor Rogers setting him up in the 8th. Earlier this season it seemed like Rogers was in the middle of a committee but he hasn’t seen a save opportunity since the start of the year and Parker might be cementing himself as the main guy to own here, at least for now. I can’t fully shed the committee label yet, since Parker’s last appearance was in the 7th and 8th innings. Once the Twins string a few save opportunities in a row we should have a better idea if the committee is still in play. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Parker has a poor 3/3 K/BB in his five innings this year, where one poor appearance can throw him behind Rogers and Trevor May in the pecking order. For now I would bet on Parker receiving the next saves but this situation could change fairly rapidly even as it seems like it’s calcifying.

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• No save for Jose Leclerc who was ineffective in allowing a hit and a walk while only getting one out in the 9th. Kyle Bird relieved him to get the last two outs and his 1st save of the year. Al mentioned Leclerc’s struggles yesterday and we should consider this a situation worth monitoring early on. Saves are hard to come by and if something is up with Leclerc, look for Chris Martin and Shawn Kelley to get some saves. It’s still very early and the Rangers are committed to Leclerc ($14.75M worth) but it’s certainly a concerning start.

• In Eric Longenhagen’s prospect notes yesterday, he noted how Jeremy Jeffress gave up four hits in his rehab appearance and was sitting at 87-91 while touching 92. If he’s going to be effective, he will need to show improvement on the velo as he was at 95 mph last year. Josh Hader owners should be monitoring this closely. If Jeffress is back to his normal velo he could be getting lower leverage saves for the Brewers but if his injury lingers, it will still be Hader time, at least until they look for a bullpen upgrade in the summer. Read the rest of this entry »

“The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” – Greg Maddux

Last week, I introduced a pitcher metric based on the six possible plate discipline outcomes. You can find the definitions and indexes in the wPDI introduction article, found here.

This week, I would like to provide you with an alternative weighting of the indexes. It will parallel the famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux. He preached that the key to pitching is to throw a strike when the batter isn’t going to swing, and to throw a ball when the batter will [swing].

With the wPDI outcome framework in place, we can now properly quantify Greg Maddux’s quote.

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Apologies for a brief and belated Bullpen Report but let’s jump right into Saturday’s games…

• Taylor Rogers pitched in the 8th inning last night with the top of the Phillies lineup up, and no real platoon split to speak of. Although he wasn’t particularly sharp he threw a scoreless inning handing it off to Parker in the 9th. The Twins put the game out of a saves reach in the top half of the inning so there was no save situation for Parker. While this situation was being used as a fairly strict platoon it looks like Rogers 8th and Parker in the 9th might be calcifying somewhat. I’ll keep the committee tag for now but Parker is affirming himself ahead for now.

• No save situation for the Royals last night but that was due to the pen blowing the lead before the 9th. Wily Peralta pitched in the 7th to clean up Kevin McCarthy’s mess but he wasn’t particularly effective himself and now carries a 15.00 ERA with only two strikeouts and four walks in three innings pitched this year. Brad Boxberger and Jake Diekman might be ahead of him in the committee at this point. Additionally, although Ian Kennedy has not been special this year, just exhibiting competence might be enough to run with this job at some point. I would bet on Kennedy’s end of season save total over the others in the Royals pen but I also don’t envision that number being particularly high or with ratios that help a team.

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With Ottoneu continuing to grow rapidly, I’d like to dedicate some ink to a few tips I’ve learned along the way.  Entering my ninth season on the popular fantasy sports platform, I’ve outlined a few things that have helped me gain that extra 1% edge, and with the season just now under way, this is a good time to consolidate a few tricks into a quick guide that should benefit new owners and veterans alike.

Resource: What is Ottoneu?

Prioritize Salary Cap Space

Of all the recommendations listed below, I’ve learned to prioritize salary flexibility during the season more than any other strategy over the years.  I’m convinced a smart, active owner can find in-season gold on the waiver wire as players and prospects emerge, so it’s essential to leave yourself some space to shuffle your roster when needed.  But what if you’ve already spent your entire salary cap in the auction? That’s okay, but you’ll want to be conscious of finding opportunities early in the season to free yourself of this roster restriction wherever possible so you have the flexibility to complement your team with mid-season contributions when trades aren’t always an option.  Here are a few specific ideas to help you maximize your Ottoneu salary cap space, which may be even more important for Head-to-Head leagues.

Resource: How to Get Started Playing Ottoneu

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• Although Jose Alvarado might have a 99 mph screwball he’s not quite the full time closer on the Rays. Last night Alvarado came in 8th inning in a tie game, striking out the side ending with lefty Charlie Blackmon. In the 9th, Diego Castillo came on to face David Dahl, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story. This wasn’t quite an obvious lefty/righty situation but Castillo was in there to face the tough right handed hitters on the Rockies. In my first Bullpen Report I suggested that Alvarado was inching towards being the main closer but that certainly doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Both Alvarado and Castillo are worth owning, almost regardless of if they are receiving saves, but this is a committee situation for the time being.

• Whether or not David Robertson would be used as a traditional closer to reign in Gabe Kapler or not, the Phillies expected better results than he’s providing right now. Robertson entered the game in the 9th with the game tied and proceeded to go single, walk, walk before walking in the winning run. In three appearances this year Robertson has five walks with only one strikeout. It’s definitely still early and there are no velocity concerns but Seranthony Dominguez, who wasn’t effective either blowing the lead in the 8th, could see some more save situations than expected if Robertson doesn’t get on track soon.

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Today, I will attempt to develop a simple pitcher metric. My exercise will provide us with a recapitulation of the plate discipline data at our disposal, while at the same time afford us the opportunity to unearth some fascinating pitching tendencies of lesser known hurlers.

To do this, let’s start with the basic ingredients of plate discipline, from the point of view of the pitcher.

We can break down any pitch into these simple binary events:

1. Was the ball thrown in the strike zone?
2. Was the ball swung on?
3. Did the batter make contact with the ball?

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