• As Al mentioned last night Jose Leclerc is getting a breather from the closer’s role and we expect Shawn Kelley and Chris Martin to fill in for saves as Leclerc is used in lower leverage situations. I have changed the grid to include Kelley and Martin in a committee with Kelley ahead at the moment although we will have to wait for the next save chance to see which direction the Rangers go. Shawn Kelley has been better this year and has saved games in the past so that’s why he’s ahead for the time being. The Rangers signed Leclerc to an extension this offseason and they gave him a long leash through his struggles this year, so they’re not going to give up on him but until he finds his rhythm again, he won’t be seeing saves.

• Ty Buttrey got his first save with the Angels this year, pitching a scoreless two innings allowing two hits and striking out a pair as well. Cam Bedrosian threw a scoreless 7th inning for his third hold of the year and committee chair Hansel Robles wasn’t used. Buttrey and Robles will continue to see saves with Cody Allen out and even when he returns as they are definitively better pitchers. However, guessing who gets more saves here is a little tough. Although Robles has been great in his own right this year, Buttrey is the best option but as we have seen in Boston with Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier, sometimes it’s the second best option that gets the saves. Both are obviously worth owning and only time will tell if this stays as a committee for a while or if it will go in a single direction.

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• After giving up a home run and a couple of runs in his previous appearance, Hector Neris was called on for the save last night and pitched around a base hit for his 4th save, striking out a pair in the process. Hector Neris will likely always struggle more with the long ball than one would want for high leverage situations, but he’s also been quite effective this year. In 12.1 innings this year, Neris has a 2.92/3.13/2.57 ERA/FIP/xFIP along with a 2.16 SIERA and a 19/3 k/bb. Although I’m sure other relievers will see some saves, especially with Robertson still out, I’m going to remove the committee tag here as it feels like he’s taking ownership of the role. Truth be told, this has as much to do with the warts of the other options in the pen as much as it has to do with Neris’ success as Pat Neshek is used more situationally, Adam Morgan is a lefty, and Seranthony Dominguez hasn’t been effective early this season. Another name to still look out for is Victor Arano who is still on the IL, but if captures some of the magic he was showing earlier he could be a useful piece for ratios and strikeouts whether or not saves are in the picture.

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• The biggest news among the bullpens is that Cody Allen has been removed from the closer’s chair. In his last 5 appearances, Allen has allowed 5 runs with a 6/3 k/bb in 3.1 innings. It’s possible that Allen rights the ship and moves into the 9th again but for now he is out. In his place will be a committee to start but the thought is that Ty Buttrey would be in the lead with Hansel Robles, Cam Bedrosian, Luis Garcia and others behind.

Ty Buttrey is thought of as the closer in waiting and although he blew the lead last night, he was going for a three-inning save, and ended with 2.2 IP, three strikeouts, two baserunners and one run allowed, hard to fault him too much for the performance. Also in the mix is Hanel Robles who has been very good to start the year with a 3.02/2.26/3.90 line and 16/3 k/bb in 11.2 innings.

Luis Garcia has pitched more higher leverage innings than Cam Bedrosian (who actually started last night) but Garcia has more walks than innings pitched and I wouldn’t feel confident owning him. Bedrosian, Noe Ramirez, and Justin Anderson could be featured as well but the bet is Buttrey and Robles. With Buttrey throwing multiple innings last night, he might have a few days off with Robles seeing the next opportunity but we still have Buttrey in the lead.

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Welcome to the closer speculation edition of the deep league waiver wire! We all hate paying for saves on draft day, which often results in having to chase them all season song, which also fuels hatred. So the best option is to speculate on potential closers during the season, buying current middle relievers cheaply in the hopes that they see some save opps in a couple of weeks.

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Apologies on a belated and brief Bullpen Report but let’s get to the main takeaways from yesterday and a tad from today…

• It wasn’t so long ago that it felt like Blake Parker was making Minnesota a non-committee but last night Taylor Rogers threw a two-inning save in the first leg of  a doubleheader and then recorded his 3rd save of the year in today’s outing. Rogers struck out five yesterday but struggle a tad in today’s save, allowing three baserunners and a run. The Trevors May and Hildenberger set up today’s game in the 7th and 8th respectively and Blake Parker wasn’t used in any of the games. Yesterday we were told he was under the weather so that could explain his absence but Rogers and Hildenberger have also been more effective than him this year. This is still a committee with Parker at the top but his margin for error is certainly small.

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After going over the pitchers who changed their velocity from 2018 to 2019, the pitchers who have seen changes this year get highlighted today. For the first week or so, pitchers who saw major adjustments were in the crosshairs of the fantasy community. But who from that list kept the changes? A pitcher’s talent shouldn’t get anchored to one early-season report. It’s time to dive in.

About the data

• I use the fastball’s average spin rate and velocity along with the pitcher’s overall Zone% to come up in the Injury metric. With spin rate, I’ve seen pitchers try to keep up their velocity while dealing with an injury and the pitch’s spin changes. As for Zone%, if a pitcher is having issues finding the plate, they may have something mechanically wrong.
• The Injury value ranges from a -100 (several negative forces are at work) to +100 (major improvements).
• A pitcher can have more than one fastball in the table
• When examining the 2019 data, I’m comparing velocities from the past week to fastballs thrown before this past week.
• All the numbers are available in this overall spreadsheet.

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• Atlanta, we have a bullpen problem. We received word yesterday that Arodys Vizcaino is having season ending surgery on his shoulder so with him out of the picture for good, the Braves bullpen is reliant on the names we have been talking about all week – A.J. Minter, Chad Sobotka, Jesse Biddle, Dan Winkler, Shane Carle, and Wes Parsons. Al went over their situation yesterday and nothing has really changed besides the fact that Jesse Biddle struggled last night in extra innings walking three batters and taking the L. While Vizcaino’s season ending injury and the struggles across the Braves bullpen makes Minter the obvious saves candidate, as Al mentioned in great detail, he hasn’t been effective. Minter threw a scoreless inning last night but also allowed two hits generating 3 whiffs on 17 pitches. His velocity still isn’t at his previous levels and while nobody is barking up the Braves tree right now, something could change…

Craig Kimbrel is still lurking as a free agent and given the Braves bullpen struggles this would be a perfect fit. The Brewers have been most attached to Kimbrel although the Braves are “monitoring” the situation. Kimbrel to Atlanta makes a ton of sense but expecting the Braves to spend money here given their recent histories doesn’t make as much sense. If the Braves pass on Kimbrel the other options aren’t that attractive, which is good for Minter owners but bad for Braves fans. One possible down-the-road option could be  one or two members of the Braves bevvy of pitching talent moving to the bullpen and succeeding. Touki Touissant is now in the rotation but if someone like him moved to the pen it might not be long until they’re pitching in the 9th inning.

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I love middle relievers in fantasy baseball. I play in a lot of deeper formats where they are viable as staff supplements even if Holds isn’t a category so I’m always looking out for the next big thing. I’m not completely averse to buying a Josh Hader (although that might be a bad example this year as he’s been the de facto closer with Corey Knebel out for the year and Jeremy Jeffress yet to debut), Dellin Betances, or this year’s draft darling, Ryan Pressly, but a major key to the value of middle relievers is that they’re cheap. Finding the next Hader, Betances, or Pressly is much more useful and can often be done on the fly in-season.

With today’s tattered starting pitcher landscape, middle relievers are as popular as ever, so we need to get the jump on the next big thing since more eyes are searching for them. It’s only April 16th so reliever samples are especially small as only 20 guys have even 10 innings, but I’ve still got my eye on 10 middle men who could help stop the bleeding for those of us toting the obscene ERAs of Carlos Carrasco (12.60), Nick Pivetta (9.45), Chris Sale (9.00), Walker Buehler (8.25), Zack Wheeler (7.47), Aaron Nola (7.45), Corey Kluber (6.16), and more. Some of these guys could even become their team’s closer which would only add to their fantasy value, but that is not a major consideration for this list.

Diego Castillo, TB | 30% K, 10% BB, 14% SwStr, .111 AVG in 9 IP

Castillo is part of a 1-2 punch at the backend of Tampa Bay’s bullpen with closer Jose Alvarado. The righty/lefty duo (Castillo being the righty) had strong seasons in 2018, too, and came into the season battling for the closer’s role. Alvarado won out, but Castillo is a key part of the bridge to the ninth and has already nabbed five Holds in his eight appearances.

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UPDATE: Right after publishing, Arodys Vizcaino was placed on the IL with shoulder information. Vizcaino’s shoulder issues were documented throughout the early going of the season but he seemed to be OK. Clearly that’s not necessarily the case with Vizcaino now on the IL. We don’t know how long Vizcaino will be on the shelf for, whether it’s rest or something larger. In his place, A.J. Minter is the clear first option with Chad Sobotka, Jesse Biddle, Wes Parsons and really everyone else in the back of the Braves pen behind them.

• After using Ian Kennedy to preserve the win on Friday the Royals turned to Wily Perlata in the 9th last night for the save, his first of the year. Ian Kennedy threw a perfect 8th inning with two strikeouts setting up Peralta and this remains a no doubt committee. It’s hard to tell who the favored option is on any given day with Brad Boxberger in the mix as along with Jake Diekman as a lefty also throwing high leverage innings. Ian Kennedy was used in the 6th and 7th innings on 4/10  but since then he’s been used in the 9th and 8th innings in back-to-back appearances. Brad Boxberger has the most traditional closer stuff and background but he’s allowed three runs in his last two appearances, and overall hasn’t been particularly effective. We still have him atop the grid given his background but he’s code red with Kennedy and Peralta right behind. Kennedy’s ability to be used for longer outings might preclude him from being a typical late inning option but he’s been the best reliever in their pen so far and at some point the cream will rise to the top, or the closer role in this case.

• When it feels like everyone is using a committee, it can be nice to see one situation possibly be breaking free, which brings us to Minnesota. Blake Parker got his third save in the 9th, with Taylor Rogers setting him up in the 8th. Earlier this season it seemed like Rogers was in the middle of a committee but he hasn’t seen a save opportunity since the start of the year and Parker might be cementing himself as the main guy to own here, at least for now. I can’t fully shed the committee label yet, since Parker’s last appearance was in the 7th and 8th innings. Once the Twins string a few save opportunities in a row we should have a better idea if the committee is still in play. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Parker has a poor 3/3 K/BB in his five innings this year, where one poor appearance can throw him behind Rogers and Trevor May in the pecking order. For now I would bet on Parker receiving the next saves but this situation could change fairly rapidly even as it seems like it’s calcifying.

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• No save for Jose Leclerc who was ineffective in allowing a hit and a walk while only getting one out in the 9th. Kyle Bird relieved him to get the last two outs and his 1st save of the year. Al mentioned Leclerc’s struggles yesterday and we should consider this a situation worth monitoring early on. Saves are hard to come by and if something is up with Leclerc, look for Chris Martin and Shawn Kelley to get some saves. It’s still very early and the Rangers are committed to Leclerc ($14.75M worth) but it’s certainly a concerning start.

• In Eric Longenhagen’s prospect notes yesterday, he noted how Jeremy Jeffress gave up four hits in his rehab appearance and was sitting at 87-91 while touching 92. If he’s going to be effective, he will need to show improvement on the velo as he was at 95 mph last year. Josh Hader owners should be monitoring this closely. If Jeffress is back to his normal velo he could be getting lower leverage saves for the Brewers but if his injury lingers, it will still be Hader time, at least until they look for a bullpen upgrade in the summer. Read the rest of this entry »