First base looked a bit thin during draft season and despite the emergence of some guys, I don’t think much changed. There is a thick middle tier that gives a perception of depth, but 1B is often deep in premium talent so this is definitely a new landscape. If you don’t one of the top 10 or so, you’re probably better off waiting as the difference between the 11th and 20th guy isn’t that stark.

One factor regarding this relative dearth of elites is that some multi-positional guys that would’ve never been considered at 1B with positions like 2B, 3B, or OF on their card are now looking better at this position. Except catcher. I’m still not even ranking guys like Yasmani Grandal at 1B because it just doesn’t make any sense to use him anywhere but C.

Let’s get into the list. I went 30 deep and then listed a bunch of honorable mentions. Let me know if I forgot anyone or if you think someone belongs much higher or much lower than where I have them right now.

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It was a weird year at catcher. We came in acknowledging the incredible lack of depth with 4-5 reliable options and then just an unmitigated mess. It’s turned out to be rather deep, just with a group we could’ve never predicted. Those top 4 (and 5 if you include Ramos) have delivered and will remain atop the ranks heading into the 2020, but it again becomes a wide open pool ripe for debates after that.

Other 2020 Rankings:

• SP
• 1B

Let me know what you think in the comments.

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Introduction

On the latest episode of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Podcast, I posed the following question:

In 2020 fantasy baseball drafts for roto leagues, which will you do early on?

A) Draft Speed Early
B) Pound the Power

Simultaneously, I posed the identical question on Twitter, yielding the following results:

The Twitter responses, as well as the members of the TGFBI Beat the Shift Podcast panel were pretty evenly split on what was more important to focus on. Obviously, fantasy owners need to focus on both; players who can amass a broad base of stats are ideal. But the question is still a valid one – in a vacuum, all things being equal, which player type should you favor in a draft?

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I recently did a solo pod covering my top 30 and I made some mistakes. I didn’t include Madison Bumgarner in the honorable mentions and I forgot to transfer Jose Berrios from the scrap list to the main one I used on the pod (that’s what I get for using two different files). I decided to do a write up and get a bit deeper on the ranking. There are a lot of changes! If you listened to the pod, have fun finding all the differences.

Obviously, they are going to change even more as the season finishes and we get into the offseason, but I was somewhat surprised at how much I changed things over the course of two days just by doing some deeper research. Maybe that’s not surprising at all… of course more research should influence my thoughts on these guys. Anyway, let’s get into it!

Let me know what you think in the comments. There are 52 names listed with the Honorable Mentions (and yes, the HMs are ranked, unlike on the pod), did I miss anyone that has to be within the top 52? As for ranking disagreements, I’m particularly interested in the sharper disagreements (like 7-10 spots). Flipping #22 and #25 is more a personal preference but thinking #30 should be at #19 or something like that is worth some discussion.

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I thought there would be more player movement by now. As of Saturday morning of July 27th, these are my closer ranks. They could easily change as more information becomes available.
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Not much movement this week compared to my last report. I figured some bullpen trades would have occurred by now, but it looks like it will be a busy last 10 days before the traded deadline.

Note: These rankings are based on chances of getting Saves, not pitcher talent.

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Previously, I looked at the hitter and pitcher auction bargains of 2019 at mid-season. These were the players that have earned the most rotisserie value, net of their cost to roster.

Now let’s turn our attention to the players who have lost the most profit in the first half of 2019, who I will refer to as the value drainers. These are the largest under-performers (to date), relative to their pre-season auction values.

To remind everyone:

• $Value refers to the accumulated 5×5 rotisserie value of each player, scaled to a full-season.
• $AAV refers to the average auction cost to purchase the player pre-season.
• $Bargain is the difference between the $Value and the $AAV.

For this exercise – In order to calculate $Value, I use NFBC roster settings and scoring parameters. Actual $AAV data is used to determine the opportunity cost. For the full methodology of how these player bargains are calculated, please refer to my introductory post. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I looked at the 2019 auction hitter bargains at mid-season. Now let’s dive into the most profitable pitchers of the first half.

To remind everyone, we aren’t looking here for the highest earning pitchers of 2019 – we are looking at pitchers with the largest values net of their opportunity cost to acquire. Gerrit Cole has earned nearly $24 of fantasy auction value – making him the 7^th highest earning pitcher. However, with his $36 average auction value – he technically is in the red as far as profitability goes.

For the methodology employed and the terms used in the ensuing leaderboards, please refer to my previous post on the 2019 Fantasy Baseball Auction Bargains at Mid-Season – Batters edition.

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There are two different and distinct ways to kick off each season in fantasy baseball. I am referring to the two popular ways to fill teams’ rosters pre-season – namely snake drafts and auctions. In either method of commencement, the goal is to accumulate the most player statistics for the forthcoming season.

However, drafts differ from auctions in the value proposition of roster slots – which is static for snake drafts. Unless you are able to trade draft picks, you are cemented with those specific slots that in turn correspond to fixed levels of fantasy value. At an auction, the distribution of acquired values may vary more widely.

The predominant first overall snake draft selection in just about any fantasy format (or depth) this year was Mike Trout. The impetus for that is easy to explain. Trout is the player with a tremendous (dare I say the highest) floor of talent, a high upside of statistics to accumulate, and a proven track record to back everything up. In economic terms, he provided the most potential value with the least amount of risk.

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7/2/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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Paul meanders aimlessly discussing the painfully thin pool of pitching.

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