Archive for Rankings

2019 Ottoneu Arbitration Targets

Ottoneu arbitration begins today, and it is one of the highlights of the fantasy season.  Much has been written about the various arbitration (usually via allocation) strategies available to owners over the past few winters, but if you’re entering your very first Ottoneu off season, or just researching how the game works before joining a new league, here is the official breakdown of how arbitration works:

In the interest of maintaining competitive balance, there are two distinct arbitration options:

Allocations

The allocation system gives a $25 budget to each team in the league.

The team must allocate this budget towards players on other teams.

Each team must allocate at least one dollar to every other team, and no team can allocate more than $3 to any other team.

At the end of the allocation period, all players have their salary increased by the amount allocated towards them.

Allocations take place after the initial offseason salary increase, so any allocations will be in addition to the $1 or $2 increase each player gets at the end of the season.

If a team does not allocate at least one dollar to every other team, none of their allocations will count and it will be as if they did not participate at all.

If a team does not allocate all $25, none of their allocations will count and it will be as if they did not participate at all.

Vote Off

The vote-off system gives each team in the league the ability to vote on a player on each other team.

The player that receives the most votes collectively on each team is turned into a restricted free agent that can be bid on by other teams during the auction draft.

In the case of a tie, the standings of all the relevant voting teams is examined. Whichever player has the team with the worst standings voting for them is the restricted free agent.

The team they were voted off from will get an automatic $5 discount towards that player, so if they get the player back, they will get the player for $5 under what they bid.

Players who have been voted into restricted free agency cannot be traded.

Players who have been voted into restricted free agency will not appear as free agents on the site.

The majority of Ottoneu leagues now use the Allocation system referenced above since it is the most engaging and usually the most disruptive.

As arbitration kicks off, I’ve provided links to a few strategic arbitration resources below.  However, taking it one step further this year, I’m releasing a list of players I expect will receive the most arbitration allocations across Ottoneu leagues.  Since player salaries are league-dependent, I’ve used average current salaries across all FGPTS leagues to estimate the attractiveness of these players and their likelihood to be hit with allocations from your league owners.  As a practical application of the list, you could say I see a $31 Anthony Rendon as more valuable than an $8 Marcus Semien, for example.  In this case, I think you should apply more of your allocations to Rendon instead of Semien.

If you own these players for salaries below the average salary listed, for example, expect their chances of receiving allocations to increase, moving them up the list compared to others.  Roto values (particulary 5 x 5) would be reflected differently, and I would recommend posting those specific questions to the community here.

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Ottoneu Top 20 First Basemen for 2020

Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 20 First Basemen for Ottoneu fantasy baseball.  Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed).  You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.

Since a majority of Ottoneu leagues are points leagues (offense based on linear weights), you’ll notice speed is less of a factor here than Paul’s rotisserie ranking lists.  Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, this list might be a good proxy for OBP, OPS, or sabermetric leagues, so keep that context in mind as you review.  If I’ve missed an important player, or you believe I’ve wildly over or under-valued someone, please let me know in the comments and I’ll be sure to update.

In 2019, the 29 qualified first basemen averaged the following production:

  • 5.88 Points Per Game (P/G)
  • 30 HR
  • 10% BB%
  • 22% K%
  • .227 ISO
  • .268 AVG
  • .353 OBP
  • .495 SLG
  • .354 wOBA
  • 120 wRC+

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Top 35 Shortstops for 2020

We knew coming into the season that shortstop was deep, but it even exceeded the expectations from the spring. Studs being studs, rookies coming through in a major way, development for several others, and of course the ball created an explosion at the position. Even more impressive is the fact that we have another wave of potential gems on the horizon.

Other 2020 Rankings:

Let me know what you think in the comments.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 743 – Positional Reviews: C and 1B

9/30/19

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POSITIONAL POST MORTEMS

Razzball Player Rater (type C or 1B into the POS field after it loads)

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Top 30 Second Basemen for 2020

The newfound depth at shortstop and third base has sort of covered the fact that second base comes up a little light. Consider a dual-eligible player like Gleyber Torres. He ranks 5th at 2B on Razzball’s Player Rater, but sit 9th at SS. There are a host of dual- or even triple-eligible guys at the position, but they are often best deployed here at the keystone.

A wave of rookies who have burst onto the scene could give the position a modicum of depth for 2020, but that’s not a guarantee so we look at the position with some trepidation at this juncture. The top still has some major firepower so don’t be afraid to invest early, but then we get some big globs of sameness.

Other 2020 Rankings:

Let me know what you think in the comments.

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Top 30 First Basemen for 2020

First base looked a bit thin during draft season and despite the emergence of some guys, I don’t think much changed. There is a thick middle tier that gives a perception of depth, but 1B is often deep in premium talent so this is definitely a new landscape. If you don’t one of the top 10 or so, you’re probably better off waiting as the difference between the 11th and 20th guy isn’t that stark.

One factor regarding this relative dearth of elites is that some multi-positional guys that would’ve never been considered at 1B with positions like 2B, 3B, or OF on their card are now looking better at this position. Except catcher. I’m still not even ranking guys like Yasmani Grandal at 1B because it just doesn’t make any sense to use him anywhere but C.

Let’s get into the list. I went 30 deep and then listed a bunch of honorable mentions. Let me know if I forgot anyone or if you think someone belongs much higher or much lower than where I have them right now.

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Top 25 Catchers for 2020

It was a weird year at catcher. We came in acknowledging the incredible lack of depth with 4-5 reliable options and then just an unmitigated mess. It’s turned out to be rather deep, just with a group we could’ve never predicted. Those top 4 (and 5 if you include Ramos) have delivered and will remain atop the ranks heading into the 2020, but it again becomes a wide open pool ripe for debates after that.

Other 2020 Rankings:

Let me know what you think in the comments.

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Draft Speed or Pound the Power?

Introduction

On the latest episode of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Podcast, I posed the following question:

In 2020 fantasy baseball drafts for roto leagues, which will you do early on?

A) Draft Speed Early
B) Pound the Power

Simultaneously, I posed the identical question on Twitter, yielding the following results:

The Twitter responses, as well as the members of the TGFBI Beat the Shift Podcast panel were pretty evenly split on what was more important to focus on. Obviously, fantasy owners need to focus on both; players who can amass a broad base of stats are ideal. But the question is still a valid one – in a vacuum, all things being equal, which player type should you favor in a draft?

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Top 30 SP Rankings for 2020

I recently did a solo pod covering my top 30 and I made some mistakes. I didn’t include Madison Bumgarner in the honorable mentions and I forgot to transfer Jose Berrios from the scrap list to the main one I used on the pod (that’s what I get for using two different files). I decided to do a write up and get a bit deeper on the ranking. There are a lot of changes! If you listened to the pod, have fun finding all the differences.

Obviously, they are going to change even more as the season finishes and we get into the offseason, but I was somewhat surprised at how much I changed things over the course of two days just by doing some deeper research. Maybe that’s not surprising at all… of course more research should influence my thoughts on these guys. Anyway, let’s get into it!

Let me know what you think in the comments. There are 52 names listed with the Honorable Mentions (and yes, the HMs are ranked, unlike on the pod), did I miss anyone that has to be within the top 52? As for ranking disagreements, I’m particularly interested in the sharper disagreements (like 7-10 spots). Flipping #22 and #25 is more a personal preference but thinking #30 should be at #19 or something like that is worth some discussion.

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Closer Rankings (7/27/19)

I thought there would be more player movement by now. As of Saturday morning of July 27th, these are my closer ranks. They could easily change as more information becomes available.
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