Archive for Prospects

The Royals system lacks can’t-miss, high-impact talent but it has some depth. I’m a big fan of catcher M.J. Melendez.

The Graduate: Scott Alexander, LHP: This southpaw (who’s equally successful against both right- and left-handed hitters) is one of the most underrated relievers in the game — especially during this period of juiced balls. His eye-popping ground-ball rate of 78% led the Majors and he struck out a quite a few more batters (21%) than the typical sinker ball pitcher. He was also an anomaly because threw his 94 mph heater a whopping 94% of the time with his slider a very distant 4.5%. His success is somewhat impress considering big league hitters always know what’s coming.

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Last season’s trades — especially those with Houston and Chicago (NL) — gave new life to the Tigers system. Plus, 2016 first rounder Matt Manning could be an absolute stud and should see his value skyrocket in 2018 as he enters pro ball. The club should also consider moving Matt Hall from the starting rotation (where he’s a fringe prospect) to the bullpen (where he could develop into a key reliever).

The Graduate: Jeimer Candelario, 3B: The Cubs flipped veteran players Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to the Cubs at last season’s trade deadline with Candelario as the key player received in return. However, I’ve never been a huge fan of the young third baseman and I doubt he’s going to be a star. Candelario, who turns 24 in a few days, is pretty average across the board in terms of his ability to hit for average or power (although the juiced ball has everyone hitting 20-30 homers). His biggest asset at the plate is his strong eye, which allows him to produce good on-base numbers. Defensively, he has a chance to be steady but unspectacular.

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There are many paths to success in baseball. Some guys hit the ground running as soon as they’re called up. Others fall on their face immediately and then find their footing and reach or exceed expectations. Then there are those who take a little while. The prospect sheen has worn off and the fantasy community has long since forgotten about them before they finally get it. I mention the fantasy community specifically because as a whole we’re really bad about sticking with prospects.

A player pretty much has to be from that first group of guys who get it immediately or their stock plummets. Part of that is the nature of single-year leagues. We can really only focus on the here and now. Even keeper leagues can’t always wait. In most keepers, you have a limited number of spots or escalating costs meaning you can only hang on so long. Dynasty leagues are different altogether, which is why you get more stories from those leagues about hanging onto the late bloomer for 3-4 seasons before he finally popped. Today I’m looking at a group of once-heralded hitters who’ve yet to click, but still hold at least a flicker of hope. That hope may finally come to fruition in 2018.

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The Cardinals don’t get a lot of love for their minor league depth but I believe some of their prospects are deserving of more attention than they’ve received so far.

The Graduate: Paul DeJong, IF: No one really saw DeJong coming — although the Cardinals clearly had some hope for him after selecting him in the fourth round of the 2015 draft. He entered pro ball as a third baseman but shifted up the middle in 2017 and thrived. After slugging 22 home runs at double-A in 2016, he slugged 38 homers between triple-A and the Majors in ’17. DeJong, 24, has a chance to be a very good player but he’ll need to tighten up his approach approach at the plate after walking less than 5% and striking out at a 28% clip.

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My review of a recent Ottoneu dynasty prospect draft continues today with highlights from rounds 10 – 12.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 4 – 6

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 7 – 9

This draft should help you “discover” a few prospect names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.

Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor).  We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring.  Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted. You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.

A few of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.

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This was supposed to be a quick paragraph on Max Fried but it turned into a borderline Quick Look. I was doing an article on pitchers who saw their ERA balloon because of starts at Coors. His non-Colorado ERA dropped stood at 3.09 vs 3.81 which made him seem like a borderline ace. I kept digging and found additional encouraging information. Here are some of my thoughts on my first 2018 deeper sleeper.

First, here’s how industry sources graded him including his pERA grades from his short MLB stint.

Some definite disparities exist. I will examine each pitch with a video from his September 9th start against the Marlins.

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The Pirates have done a nice job developing pitchers over the past few years and there are more on the way.

The Graduate: Trevor Williams, RHP: When Tyler Glasnow crashed and burned, Williams stepped up his game and was arguably the third most valuable arm on the staff. The rookie hurler isn’t flashy but he throws strikes, induces a good number of ground balls and threw 150 innings. Traded from the Marlins organization in 2015, his 2.2 WAR surpassed all Miami hurlers in 2017 so it’s probably one trade that The Fish would like back. Williams throws his fastball — which averaged just 92 mph in 2017 — more than 70% of the time but his above-average command of it makes it play up. He sprinkles in a slider and a changeup. Williams has a very basic approach and he’ll need to see his secondary offerings improve (and utilize them more) if he’s going to continue to dominate big league hitters.

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Happy Game 7 Day!

About a year ago I released my (2017) Top 50 Fantasy Prospect rankings using the Prospect Scorecard to weight a variety of important variables in the context of fantasy baseball.  Today I’m publishing an (early) expanded list of the Top 100 Fantasy Prospects for 2018 for both Ottoneu’s FanGraphs Points leagues (where wOBA is a key measure on offense) and Roto leagues (5 x 5).

A few quick notes before we begin:

• Since “Cost” is league-dependent (auction salary, keeper round, etc.), I’ve ignored it here for simplicity by keeping it constant for every prospect listed. Feel free to use the Scorecard to make changes that reflect true player costs for your league, which will impact these rankings.
• These rankings below are intended to represent the 100 most valuable prospects for fantasy leagues (depending on scoring format).
• It’s quite possible I’m missing an obvious player that should be ranked, so let me know in the comments.  We can discuss the specific rationale for player rankings in the comments, too.  Player ages are current ages.
• For a lot more prospect resources, check out the Ottoneu community.

Here are the (early) 2018 Top 100 prospects for the linear-weights-based FanGraphs Points scoring format (a good proxy for those in OBP leagues):

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The Graduate: Amir Garrett, LHP: Coming off of a strong 2016 season, Garrett positioned himself well to pitch some big innings for the Reds in 2017. He ended up throwing 70.2 innings but his ERA of 7.39 was down right ugly. He was hittable (9.42 H/9) and walked a lot of batters (5.09 BB/9), which is a terrible combination. Worse yet, he allowed 23 homers — good for an ugly 2.93 HR/9 (the worst rate in the Majors for pitchers with more than 50 innings pitched). Garrett, 25, will have to focus on improved command and control if he’s going to get another shot at starting for the Reds. If he can’t, though, his fastball-changeup combo could be enough to be an impact reliever.

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The Brewers have an exciting young team and there is more impact talent on the way.

The Graduate: Josh Hader, LHP: You don’t often receive a promotion to the Majors when your ERA is 5.37 but the Brewers knew Hader had a chance to help by shifting from the rotation to the bullpen. It was an astute move and he threw 47.2 innings in The Show and allowed just 25 hits. He overpowered big league hitters with his fastball-slider mix and struck out 68 batters. To have success in the Majors as a starter, though, Hader will have to throw more strikes; he walked almost as many hitters as he allowed hits to in 2017: 22 walks to 25 hits. He’ll also want to continue to polish his changeup. Even if he sticks in the ‘pen, the left-hander has a chance to be an impact arm for the Brewers.

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