My review of a recent Ottoneu dynasty prospect draft continues today with highlights from rounds 10 – 12.
This draft should help you “discover” a few prospect names to keep an eye on going forward. If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.
Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor). We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring. Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted. You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.
A few of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.
|10.1||SNEEZE BALL||Trevor Rogers||LHP||MIA|
|10.2||THE MARINE LAYER||Bryse Wilson||RHP||ATL|
|10.3||OVERWHELMING UNDERDOGS||Touki Toussaint||RHP||ATL|
|10.4||RUBBER DUCKIES||Delvin Perez||SS||STL|
|10.5||WAR HORSE||Tristen Lutz||OF||MIL|
|10.6||LUCKY STRIKES||Starling Heredia||OF||LAD|
|10.7||BLACK LOTUS||Nick Solak||2B||NYY|
|10.8||ORLEANS PANTS FACTORY||Dylan Cozens||OF||PHI|
|10.9||THE LORDS OF FLATBUSH||Randy Arozarena||OF||STL|
|10.10||SONNY GRAY REAL ESTATE||Lazaro Armenteros||OF||OAK|
|10.11||SPRINGER TRAINING||J.B. Bukauskas||RHP||HOU|
|10.12||MILE HIGH CLUB||Aristides Aquino||OF||CIN|
|11.1||MILE HIGH CLUB||Ronald Guzman||1B||TEX|
|11.2||SPRINGER TRAINING||Garrett Whitley||OF||TB|
|11.3||SONNY GRAY REAL ESTATE||Pedro Gonzalez||OF||TEX|
|11.4||THE LORDS OF FLATBUSH||Abraham Toro-Hernandez||3B||HOU|
|11.5||ORLEANS PANTS FACTORY||LaMonte Wade||OF||MIN|
|11.6||BLACK LOTUS||Hagen Danner||C||TOR|
|11.7||LUCKY STRIKES||Jeter Downs||SS||CIN|
|11.8||WAR HORSE||Brusdar Graterol||RHP||MIN|
|11.9||RUBBER DUCKIES||Chris Seise||SS||TEX|
|11.10||OVERWHELMING UNDERDOGS||Jhailyn Ortiz||OF||PHI|
|11.11||THE MARINE LAYER||Akil Baddoo||OF||MIN|
|11.12||SNEEZE BALL||Jesus Luzardo||LHP||OAK|
|12.1||SNEEZE BALL||Luis Garcia||SS||WAS|
|12.2||THE MARINE LAYER||George Valera||OF||CLE|
|12.3||OVERWHELMING UNDERDOGS||Monte Harrison||OF||MIL|
|12.4||RUBBER DUCKIES||Peter Alonso||1B||NYM|
|12.5||WAR HORSE||Jose Israel Garcia||SS||CIN|
|12.6||LUCKY STRIKES||Shane Baz||RHP||PIT|
|12.7||BLACK LOTUS||Alex Faedo||RHP||DET|
|12.8||ORLEANS PANTS FACTORY||Jeisson Rosario||OF||SD|
|12.9||THE LORDS OF FLATBUSH||Wander Franco||SS||TB|
|12.10||SONNY GRAY REAL ESTATE||Dermis Garcia||OF||NYY|
|12.11||SPRINGER TRAINING||Justin Williams||OF||TB|
|12.12||MILE HIGH CLUB||Trent Clark||OF||MIL|
Draft Review Rounds 10 – 12
Round 10 best value: Dylan Cozens (10.8)
Bryse Wilson (10.2)
Atlanta’s current farm system is so stacked with up and coming arms that the soon-to-be 20 year old RHP Wilson will fall just short of most Top 10 Braves rankings you’ll find in the coming months. Wilson was drafted in the fourth round of the 2016 draft and shows a plus fastball and solid slider. The 6’1″ righty managed a 9.13 K/9 and 52% ground ball rate in A ball this past season. While some scouts think he could be destined for the bullpen because he almost already physically maxed, he’s done a good job of throwing strikes so far and shouldn’t be overlooked.
Touki Toussaint (10.3)
Speaking of bullpens and Braves pitching prospects, few arms in the system can match the raw “stuff” of the 6’3″ RHP Toussaint. The 21 year old has one of the best breaking balls in the minors when his mechanics are in sync, and his fastball has always graded as plus if not more. Reports out of the AFL have been very positive, but Toussaint’s real future will always depend on his ability to control the ball, which has been inconsistent at best up to this point. The good news here is that with such tremendous stuff the floor is probably a high leverage arm out of the ATL bullpen (perhaps as early as next September), which can be plenty valuable. Great selection here in the 10th.
Touki Toussaint, Soul-Stealing Curveball (home plate view). ? [@BravesHotTakes request] pic.twitter.com/eXiZC1CUKi
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 5, 2017
Tristen Lutz (10.5)
Lutz (18) was my next pick here and there’s a good chance I’ll regret not taking him earlier. The 6’3″ outfielder managed a .957 OPS in 40 games in rookie ball this past summer and gets better than average grades for his power, arm, and fielding ability. More importantly, he scouts as a player who can also hit, and if that critical tool continues to develop, Lutz could be a big breakout candidate among prospects one year from now. The Brewers are loaded with interesting outfield prospects and Lutz looks like he could end up as one of the best.
Starling Heredia (10.6)
FanGraphs lists Heredia at 6’2″ 200 lbs, but I drafted him here simply because his photo on MLB.com make him look like he ate a 6’2″ human for breakfast. In other words, the 18 year old outfielder is a beast (appropriately nicknamed “Pitbull”), but he’s a beast with some “star-level tools” that translated into a combined .325/.397/.555 offensive line across 52 games this past season in the low minors. My confidence in the Dodgers’ ability to develop hitters is very high and Heredia looks like he’s going to be a fun guy to watch mature over the next couple of seasons in the minors. His stock is up, so take note.
Dylan Cozens (10.8)
Cozens, age 23, hit 67 home runs over the past two seasons in the high minors, including 40 in AA in 2016. His 27 home runs in AAA this year also came with a .301 OBP and a 35.8% K%, which gives you some indication of the risk associated with the outfielder’s power-first offensive profile. In some ways the 6’6″ lefty is the NL version of Matt Olson, who took the AL by storm in the 2nd half by batting .286 with 20 HR and a .442 wOBA. Olson was ranked as KATOH’s 73rd best prospect early last year, and Cozens checked in at #74 in this summer’s update. The point here is not that Cozens is the next breakout rookie debut, but that one dimensional players like Cozens can often be so undervalued as prospects that they can sneak up on you in terms of real value once they do crack a major league lineup. The risk here is medium-high, but the fact that Cozens will almost certainly get the call next season and already has plus raw power on his resume makes this a great gamble to pay off in the 10th round.
Lazaro Armenteros (10.10)
Marc Hulet recently dubbed the 18 year old Armenteros a great sleeper in the A’s system, and he has the international pedigree to shoot up OAK rankings if he continues using his above average tools to post strong numbers (.276/.377/.443) on future promotions throughout the minors. Great upside selection late in this draft.
Round 11 best value: Akil Baddoo (11.11)
Ronald Guzman (11.1)
If it seems like Guzman has been floating around the minors for a long time, you’re right, as his 2017 season (.298/.372/.434 in 125 games at AAA) was his 6th since being signed by TEX in the 2011 draft. Guzman is limited defensively to first base, which wouldn’t normally be a problem for a 6’5″ lefty that most early scouts expected to mash, but Guzman has never consistently tapped into the type of power or patience that is standard among major league 1B (never reached either .200 ISO or 10% BB% in the minors). However, he has learned how to hit, and he almost certainly has a big league future (soon) because of it. The 23 year old Guzman seems like a good candidate to be a mediocre fantasy play for a few seasons until everyone forgets about him and he breaks out at age 26 or 27.
Pedro Gonzalez (11.3)
Sticking with TEX prospects, Gonzalez represents the type of raw but nearly unlimited potential you want to gamble on late in dynasty drafts. Acquired in the trade that sent Jonathan Lucroy to COL, the tall (6’5″), lanky right handed outfielder will play all of 2018 at the age of 20 and will receive plenty of prospect hype if his above average power and speed develop the way many scouts believe it will. Again, the key word here is raw, and Gonzalez is a long, long way from a finished product, but the upside here is massive, so add him now to your watch lists.
Jeter Downs (11.7)
Despite a great namesake, Downs is hiding below the cutoff point on most CIN Top 10 lists at the moment. That’s ok because the kid (19) can hit, and I had my eye on him several rounds prior to this 11th round selection. Landing a true shortstop with at least average projectable power and hitting ability this late in the draft was a big win in my mind, and because Downs is also lauded for his strong work ethic and should play in a hitter friendly ballpark, he gets a bit of extra credit, too.
Jhailyn Ortiz (11.10)
Take everything I wrote above about teammate Dylan Cozens (big power, risky hit tool) and supersize it for the right hand hitting Ortiz, who may have the loudest power in the system, with some suggesting future 70 grade game power. So far, so good, as Ortiz crushed low A this year to the tune of .302/.401/.560 in 47 games at age 18 (.258 ISO). Ortiz has a strong arm and a bit more athleticism than you’d expect for such a large teenager, so PHI will do everything they can to keep him in the outfield for now, which only increases his fantasy value. Ortiz will turn 19 next week and should be on your low minors radar heading into 2018.
Slow-motion swing (rear view) of Jhailyn Ortiz during BP at Staten Island. pic.twitter.com/isbp9YNfHk
— Ian Catherine (@IanCatherine27) August 8, 2017
Akil Baddoo (11.11)
Who? Baddoo was hidden all the way down at #23 on Eric Longenhagen’s pre-season MIN top prospect list, but he’s a name you need to know because his early success (he hit .323/.436/.527 in rookie ball at age 18) has him rising up many lists heading into 2018. Baddoo can hit, get on base (36 BB to 31 K’s), and he’s got the speed to stay in centerfield, so if that trifecta of talent also allows him to get to more power eventually, he’s going to become one of the better steals of this draft looking back a few years from now.
Jesus Luzardo (11.12)
Round 12 best value: Shane Baz (12.6)
Monte Harrison (12.3)
Drafted in the 2nd round by MIL in 2014, Harrison had plenty of hype but had his first few seasons in the minors derailed by hand and wrist injuries. His healthy 2017 season (age 21) was much more in line with the type of production his raw athleticism projected, as he hit a combined 21 home runs and .832 OPS across two levels, finishing with 59 games in high A. Harrison may have at least 20-20 skills if he continues to develop, and was recently highlighted as one of the more exciting players in the Midwest League this year.
Shane Baz (12.6)
Drafted out of high school in the first round this summer by PIT, the 6’3″ RHP Baz was the best pitcher on my list at this point in the draft and I took him primarily because of what could be an advanced pitching repertoire, capable of spinning a cutter, slider, curve, and change in addition to at least a plus fastball. The notes on his cutter in particular remind me of reports I used to read on Dylan Bundy, though Baz is so far from the majors that I don’t want to jump to conclusions. The Pirates have had some success in developing pitchers in recent years, though it remains to be seen if that deep arsenal will be fully utilized or if they’ll take the extra slow fastball-only approach for awhile. Regardless, Baz has #2 SP-type stuff if he can harness it over the next few seasons in the minors.
Trent Clark (12.12)
Another high upside, athletic outfielder in the Brewers’ system, Clark has lost some luster on his prospect status over the past two seasons since being drafted in 2015. This past season he walked 98 times in 133 games in high A (17.2% BB%), but is still striking out at a fair clip (24.8%), and hasn’t hit above .231 in either of the past two years. The 2018 season will be a critical year for his development and in determining just what type of player he will become.
Rest in peace, Roy Halladay.
Trey is a 20 year fantasy veteran and a five time Ottoneu champion, including the 2015 winner of the Ottoneu Champions League. He currently administers the Ottoneu community, a network of ~1,200 fantasy baseball and football fans talking trash daily. More resources here: http://community.ottoneu.com