I’ve never been on the Amed Rosario bandwagon. Growing up near Philadelphia gave me a lot of exposure to the Mets prospect dystopia. No fan base spends more time rosterbating about future busts. Anytime I hear a Mets prospect is supposed to be the next big thing, I’m instantly skeptical. Fernando Martinez forever! #FMart.
The Marlins traded off a number of key assets but the minor league system remains thin thanks to less-than-impressive drafts, inconsistent international market returns and so-so trades.
The Graduate: Jarlin Garcia, RHP: A promising but inconsistent starting pitcher in the minors, Garcia had some success in the Majors as a reliever. His control is ahead of his command and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher so he’s susceptible to the home run even though he can hump his heater up into the 95-96 mph range. The southpaw was much better against same-side hitters in 2017 so he’ll need to make some adjustments to develop into a high-leverage arm (but he has a potentially-plus changeup, which gives hope).
The Graduate: Rhys Hoskins, 1B/OF: Talent evaluators were generally cautious when projecting big numbers for Hoskins in the Majors despite strong pro numbers in the minors — including 39 homers in ’16. But he slugged another 29 homers in 115 triple-A games and the Phillies could ignore him no longer. He was unconscious as a big leaguer with anothet 18 long balls in just 50 games. He struck out a bit too much (almost 22%) but he also walked 17.5% of the time. Hoskins isn’t going to produce a .359 isolated slugging rate again but he can still be a stud. The signing of Carlos Santana curiously pushes Hoskins to left field where he may struggle to be average.
The Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani is finally coming to MLB (and more specifically to the Angels), and in doing so will become the trailblazer that sets a new expectation for the future of the (possible) “two-way” player. Because salaries and injuries continue to escalate in the game, a true double threat major leaguer is still hard to imagine in baseball, but if the 23 year old Ohtani does become the first player since Babe Ruth to make a regular impact on both sides of the ball, he will change the landscape of fantasy baseball, too.
Ohtani 😱 pic.twitter.com/YXJJ8954Hs
— Vladimir Guerrero (@VladGuerrero27) December 8, 2017
Mother Hubbard’s cupboard is a little bare in the Mets system. There aren’t a lot of surefire studs on the way but there is an interesting collection of toolsy players with potential.
The Graduate: Brandon Nimmo, OF: The Mets didn’t receive much offensive value from their rookies in 2017 but Nimmo was the outlier. Despite a lot of swing-and-miss to his game (28% K rate), he has a lot of patience as witnessed by his 15% walk rate. He doesn’t have the foot speed to take full advantage of his hefty .379 on-base percentage but he still might score a lot of runs if moved to the No. 2 hole in the lineup. He currently possesses more gap pop than over-the-fence power but that could change down the line. Nimmo, 24, has a good shot at a starting gig in 2018.
The Indians system boasts some top-level talent that includes Triston McKenzie, Nolan Jones and Triston McKenzie – plus some fun sleepers.
The Graduate: Bradley Zimmer, OF: Zimmer has above-average tools across the board with the exception of hit tool — and that was on full display during his MLB debut. He hit just .241 in 332 plate appearances thanks in part to a strikeout rate hovering around 30%. As he matures, though, he should post double-digit walk rates to go along with 20-20 (HR-SB) potential. In the field, he’s a plus fielder with a strong arm. Even if he hits .240-.250, he could be an all-star… but an increased contact rate would help further the case.
The Twins system maybe doesn’t have the best depth but it has some impact hitters on the way — especially up the middle — and some intriguing arms.
The Graduate: Trevor Hildenberger, RHP: More moxie than stuff, Hildenberger survived his first taste of the Majors with a fastball that sat 88-89 mph. His changeup was the nasty go-to offering and his slider had just enough to keep hitters honest. Most importantly, the right-hander threw strikes and kept the ball down in the zone which helped him generate a ground-ball rate of close to 60%. Hildenberger had similar success in the minors and the Twins began to trust him with some key pitching situations. He’s not a big name and he doesn’t throw hard but he could be a key arm for the Twins in 2018.
In part 1, I looked at the first five of my post-hype prospects. They aren’t necessarily ranked in order of preference in that piece, but they grouped together as the top tier from this group. I’ve got a second group of seven guys who essentially make up another tier that is a cut or two below the first five. To recap how I’m choosing these guys, here’s what I said in the first part:
I’m looking at younger players with medium-to-high prospect pedigree that they haven’t cashed in yet. They’ve had some major league time (usually 300+ PA, but I didn’t have a specific set of statistical parameters) with maybe a spurt of success, but there’s a real shot for much more, especially if the playing time is there. Best of all, they won’t cost much at the draft table. Examples would include the Tim Beckham and Chris Taylor types. Beckham, of course, was a former #1 overall who was written off in some circles before he could legally drink. Meanwhile, Taylor never had the hype of a Beckham, but was firmly Top 10 in the Seattle org. for 2013 lists and might’ve charted in some Top 100s had he not expired his rookie status in 2014.
Without further ado…
I like the Sox system, but not for the same reasons as most people. Lucas Giolito should be a decent mid-rotation arm and Eloy Jimenez is going to be a star… but Luis Robert and Blake Rutherford are overrated. Players being undervalued, though, include Alec Hansen, Dane Dunning, Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, A.J. Puckett, and Aaron Bummer.
The Graduate: Yoan Moncada, 2B: As they’re known to do quite often, the White Sox rushed Moncada through the minors after getting their paws on him in the Chris Sale deal last winter. Now, he did hold his own in The Show as a roughly league-average hitter, but the strikeout rate of 32% suggests more issues are to come unless he makes adjustments. Just 22, Moncada has a tantalizing power-speed combo and could be a mainstay in the middle of the Sox lineup if the adjustments happen. Look for him to have an up-and-down year in 2018.
It’s probably been awhile since you’ve read a traditional “buy low, sell high” article. In today’s golden age of baseball analytics where complex physics and statistics can be boiled down to a few simple indicators accessed instantly using one hand, it’s not very often that we (readers, fans, fantasy players) find ourselves in possession of knowledge before the masses. For example, try “selling” Avisail Garcia and his recent .375 wOBA around your league without getting some type of response that includes “yeah, but he had a .392 BABIP”.
Thankfully, despite all the data available at our fingertips, the one ingredient that will always play a critical role in the mixture of value is the human element of perception, which can swing wildly in different directions depending who you’re dealing with. Today I’d like to isolate a few players who’s perception may be suppressing their actual value a little more than it should be, which may represent a buying opportunity for savvy fantasy owners prepping for 2018. The good news is you don’t have to stand in line to land these deals, but you will still need to get them early.