Hard to believe January is already half finished. Maybe even harder to accept that there are a significant number of talented MLB free agents left unsigned. As we wait through the long winter days, I’m looking forward to seeing these players in action in 2018.
The Rays have an incredibly toolsy system with lots of potential littered throughout the minors. I could see quite a few Rays prospects breaking out into legit Top 100 prospects in 2018 — with another large contingency contributing at the big league level.
First Taste of The Show: Jose Alvarado, LHP: This fire-balling left-hander would probably be getting more press if he was in the Yankees or Dodgers system. His fastball sat at 98 mph in his MLB debut. He threw it 75% of the time but the mix of velo and sink makes him an incredibly overpowering arm. His curveball gives him a second potentially-plus pitch. Alvarado showed solid control in The Show with fewer than three walks per nine innings but he averaged close to six in the minors. If he made adjustments that will stick, Alvarado is a ninth-inning boss. If his control takes a step back in 2018 then he’s move of a seventh-inning guy.
Several years ago Alan Nathan, Jeff Kensrud, Lloyd Smith, and Eric Lang brought an air cannon and a few boxes of brand new baseballs to Minute Maid Park. If you’re anything like me, you like where this is going. They set up their cannon to fire balls roughly 96mph on a 28° angle and used Trackman to measure their distance and spin rate. They tested four groups of balls, two groups composed of MLB balls, one MiLB, and one NCAA. One group of MLB balls, group A, were tested using reasonably low spin rates, about 1800. The other, group B, had variable spin rates, ranging from 2100 to 3300. The results of their study were published in an article titled How Far Did That Fly Ball Travel (Redux)? on Baseball Prospectus, although it can also be found here. I encourage you to read the piece, but today I want to focus on the MLB-A and MiLB groups.
| Ball Lot | Distance (S. D.) | Spin (S. D.) |
|---|---|---|
| MLB-A | 390 (8) | 1806 (58) |
| MiLB | 362 (8) | 1583 (49) |
The major league ball traveled 28 feet further than the minor league ball. Albeit with a higher spin rate. Presumably, the higher spin rate should translate to increased distance, but it is difficult to imagine that a difference of 200 rpm could bridge a gap of 28 feet. More on this in a moment. Read the rest of this entry »
The Red Sox system has fallen on hard times but the good news is that the big league club is littered with young, impact talent. The pitching depth is pretty sparse.
The Graduate: Andrew Benintendi, OF: After watching mutants like Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger perform as rookies in 2017, it would be easy to consider Benintendi’s season pretty modest. However, he was a 20-20 (HR-SB) threat and got on base at a regular clip thanks to a walk rate of more than 10%. His struggles against southpaws pulled down his overall numbers but he needs to continue to face them to round out his game. I’d also like him to show a little more sting in his bat as he might be more of a 12-15 homer guy without the juiced ball.
The Stud: Michael Chavis, 3B: As mentioned above, the system is thin and it lacks true impact players. Chavis had a breakout 2017 season and hit 31 home runs but it remains to be seen just how good of a hitter he really is. He needs to improve his approach at the plate and show better pitch selection and patience. Chavis, 22, has a very strong arm, which gives him a shot to stick at third base, but the presence of Rafael Devers could push the double-A infielder to the outfield (not that there’s an opening there, either). From an offensive profile, he might be the next Adam Duvall.
The Draft Pick: Tanner Houck, RHP: The Blue Jays tried to nab Houck out of high school but he was considered all but unsignable. After three years in college, the big right-hander received some early first round consideration but he ultimately slid to the Sox at the 24th slot. There are concerns that his overall package is not polished enough to stick as a starter but I don’t share those concerns. His heater has a chance to work in the upper 90s and should produce a good number of ground-ball outs. Because it’s so good, he only needs the slider and changeup to be average. If they improve from there, he moves from a potential No. 3 guy to a No. 1 or 2.
The Riser: Mike Shawaryn, RHP: This 2016 fifth round draft pick has moved quickly through the system and could open 2018 in double-A. He has three slightly-above-average offerings and above-average control, which could allow him to develop into an innings-eating No. 3 or 4 starter. Shawaryn is not flashy but he’s the type of arm that champion teams need to help chew up innings.
The Sleeper: Lorenzo Cedrola, OF: Cedrola catches my eye as a player that can really, really hit but he may never be strong enough to be more than a fourth or fifth outfielder. He has enough speed to be a nuisance on the bases and a strong fielder in center. His slight frame makes projecting increased strength difficult and he could end up being similar to Carlos Tocci (who was recently nabbed in the Rule 5 draft). If Cedrola can get stronger and can learn to take more free passes to utilize his speed, he becomes an intriguing future bench option for Boston.
Another Sleeper: Chad De La Guerra, IF: I’m tacking on De La Guerra because I wanted to write a few words about him. He reminds me of Darwin Barney (without the plus glove) — a guy with some offensive potential that’s not quite good enough to be an everyday guy… although he could probably handle it as an injury fill-in for a few months. He has good line-drive pop geared for the gaps and should produce a solid on-base average due to his willingness to take a walk. He also keeps the strikeouts at a modest level so he could hit for a decent average.
The Graduate: Trey Mancini, OF/1B: In any other season, Mancini’s rookie season would have received a fair bit of attention but he was contending with the likes of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. The Orioles rookie doesn’t really have any defensive value but he can hit for both average and power. He’ll become even more valuable as he tightens up his strike zone. With Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis in Baltimore, Mancini will be forced to spend more time in left field, which hurts the team. I believe he has a chance to be quite good for the Orioles for a long time.
As somewhat of an ode to the will-be-missed Mr. Swydan, I want take a page out of Paul’s book to highlight a number of players I’m excited to watch in 2018 (this is part one).
Having fun with some random comparisons, Justin Smoak finished a terrific 2017 with a career-high .371 wOBA (.270/.355/.529). Freddie Freeman also finished the summer with a .371 wOBA (.291/.378/.513)…after spending six weeks on the DL with a broken wrist. Before that DL stint, Freeman was arguably the best hitter in baseball, slashing .341/.461/.748 (.485 wOBA) over the first six weeks of the season. He was essentially unstoppable during that stretch, and at the age of 28, armed with one of the most consistent batted ball profiles in the game and a full season of health (plus 3B eligibility in some leagues), Freeman has all the ingredients for a truly special season in 2018.
While I normally examine pitchers in-season, a couple of late-season call-ups I missed deserved some analysis.
Note: All breaks are from the pitcher’s perspective.
The 21-year-old lefty got my attention by showing up as the 38th ranked starting pitcher by our auction calculator. If I’m going to take a guy to be my #3 or #4 starter, I should know a bit about him. Here is my take on his last start of the 2017 season against the Marlins.
• He throws straight to home with no funky angles from a ¾ arm slot and doesn’t fall off the mound after his windup. He shows a little more effort from the stretch. With his simple delivery, he’ll not have as much of a platoon split.
It wasn’t long ago that the Nationals had a depressing system. The system still lacks depth but it now has some prospects with impact potential.
The Graduate: Brian Goodwin, OF: The Nationals may lose Bryce Harper to free agency after the 2018 season but take a quick glance through this review and you’ll see the names of five intriguing outfield prospects. Goodwin will likely slide into a fourth outfielder role long term but he could fill in as a regular until the wave of younger outfielders is ready to infiltrate the majors. He struck out a lot in his rookie season (almost 25%) but he took some walks and also took advantage of the juiced ball to show a lot more power than he ever did in the minors (.247 isolated slugging). With regular playing time, Goodwin could be a threat for a 15-15 (HR-SB) season.
The system boasts potential stars, lots of pitching and great overall depth. Things have been bleak for the Braves recently but there is a lot to be excited about.
The Graduate: Ozzie Albies, 2B: Dansby Swanson received the most attention early in 2017 as the potential impact middle infielder but he proved less polished than expected and struggled throughout his rookie season. Allowed to simmer a little longer in the minors, Albies — at the age of just 20 — arrived in the summer and didn’t look out of place. He kept the strikeouts down, the walks up and showed more pop than expected. If Swanson needs more time in the minors, look for Albies to slide over from second to shortstop, his natural position. He has a chance to be a top-of-the-order hitter with lots of runs scored, bases stolen and surprising pop for his size.
2018 is here, and the dawn of a new year is the best time to reevaluate your overall fantasy strategy. But before digging into the finer points of roster construction, auction value calculations, and post-post-hype sleepers, January is also the perfect time to step back and ask whether it might be time to trade in your entire fantasy experience for one of the more advanced, up-and-coming fantasy platforms around.
This is a shameless plug for Ottoneu, a fantasy sports platform so addicting that it has also launched a community of more than 1,000 hardcore baseball fans that sleep and eat baseball year round. But don’t take my word for it. There are many reasons why you should try Ottoneu (including some exciting new features launching in 2018), but today I want you to hear from some of the “rookies” who just finished up their first full year of Ottoneu in 2017. This growing community of raving fans is a big part of the Ottoneu experience, and their Season One feedback may help you make the final decision to drive your own league to Ottoneu in 2018.