Archive for Prospects

Fantasy catchers typically have limited value to teams — although outliers like Buster Posey exist — so it doesn’t make much sense to spend much money (in auction leagues) or a significant draft slot on the position. As a result, rookie catchers can often provide a good option in fantasy — especially for the second slot in two-catcher leagues — because they can be had for little financial commitment/be snatched off the waiver wire and some possess untapped offensive potential.

Jorge Alfaro, C, Phillies: Alfaro could develop into one of the top catchers in baseball on both sides of the ball thanks to his plus power and rocket arm behind the plate. From a fantasy-only perspective, he has the potential to be a Top 10 option before his rookie season is over. However, he needs to be more selective at the plate if he’s going to realize his full potential. His strikeout rate of more than 30% at triple-A was down right scary and his walk rate throughout his minor league career has hovered around just 5%.

Again, catchers don’t have to be great hitters to be valuable to a big league team so Alfaro’s 20+ home run potential (and ability to hit the ball really hard) is enough to get excited about. The big obstacle for the rookie backstop in 2018 is the presence of decent big league catchers Cameron Rupp and Andrew Knapp. However, both of the more seasoned catchers have remaining minor league options while Alfaro does not.

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It’s tough to get excited about this year’s batch of rookie pitchers. One reason is that most of the top arms (Reyes, Gohara, Buehler, Flaherty) have already debuted in the majors. Many of the other top-ranked arms have not pitched in double-A yet.

With this year’s class looking down, there always seems to be a few pitchers who come out of nowhere like Luis Castillo did last season. He wasn’t picked among the top 600 players in NFBC and now he near a top-100 pick. Jake Faria and Dinelson Lamet were a couple other arms who were off owner’s radars. It just takes a pitcher gaining a couple ticks on his fastball or developing a new pitch to shoot up in talent.

I found it best to be aggressive on this these mid-season call-ups. They may be getting promoted because they are ready. Investigate any recent scouting reports and don’t be afraid to roster them if they’re talented.

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Eric and Kiley have graciously taken the time to give us some of the best prospect content on the net, but today as prospect week continues I’ll provide a quick fantasy spin for each of the 2018 Top 100 prospects. The goal here is simply to each prospect’s grades and scouting reports and then translate those skills into “what could be” for fantasy context (for example where “upside” might represent an 80%+ outcome on a prospect’s potential).

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With prospect week happening on the main website, I’m going to look at the hitting prospects ranked by their NFBC ADP (average draft position). This will be the batter’s value just in redraft leagues, not in keeper or dynasty leagues. I’ve included the player’s average, low, and high ADP values along with their Fangraphs prospect ranking.

Ronald Acuna (133 ADP, 88 min, 207 max, #2 prospect)

As the first rookie hitter off the board, his price is just a little too high for me considering the options available after him. He’s a talented ball player who is consistently ranked as either the #1 or #2 prospect in the game. He’s going to be good but how good in 2018 is the question. I have two reservations about him.

First, the no league has had a chance to adapt to his weaknesses and then have Acuna adapt back. Even pitchers found Mike Trout’s “weakness” and he had to adapt. Acuna will need to also. The question will be when the adaptation will occur and how long will it take. Will it happen in the minors and take a couple months? Or will happen in the big leagues and only be a week or two. This adjustment time could really frustrate owners.

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While it’s true that Ottoneu never sleeps, some are often surprised to know that January and February are among the busiest months of the year for this growing fantasy sports platform.  This winter frenzy period for baseball is refreshing because it keeps owners engaged even as they await free agent signings, and it is highly active because so many new leagues are forming.  If you’re thinking about playing Ottoneu this season, here are some key resources for review:

What Is Ottoneu?

Ottoneu First Impressions

Why You Should Play Ottoneu

How To Get Started Playing Ottoneu

10 Tips for Ottoneu Rookies

Join an Ottoneu League

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It’s prospect week which means it’s time for RotoGraphs to jump in line with cross-promotional synergistical, uh… I lost my train of thought. Anyway, I’m going to write about two prospects.

Wait. Here’s an important note about me, the author, with regards to assessing minor league talent. My prospect exposure is not uniform. I have a very strong grasp of the Phillies system, in part because I grew up within walking distance* of the city, and in part because they may have the best prospect coverage (h/t to @Matt_Winkelman and friends). I also have a few MLB contacts – mainly scouts with whom I used to play – who will occasionally feed me breakout prospects before they’re publicly recognized as such. Mostly, I use google-able scouting reports and FanGraphs stats to analyze players. Ok, disclaimer proclaimed. Shall we?

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Welcome to the Ottoneu keeper deadline, 2018 edition.  Today (11:59 PM EDT) is the final day to make that difficult decision about your on-the-bubble players before rosters lock and you set your sights on your upcoming league auction.  Per the rules:

Between the end of the Major League Baseball regular season and the end of arbitration, players may be cut. Between the end of arbitration and the keeper deadline, players may be cut or traded. After the keeper deadline and before the auction draft, teams may not cut or trade any players.

Since the keeper deadline also serves as a de-factor trade deadline, I’ve lined up a few final resources for you below and I’ve asked a handful of Ottoneu experts (Justin, Chad, Brad) to check your questions and comments periodically throughout the day to offer their input on your toughest decisions.  You don’t play this game? You should, but even if your non-Ottoneu keeper deadline is still a few weeks away, feel free to fire your questions below and we’ll do our best to give you feedback (for context, don’t forget to let us know details about your league format).

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First Taste of The Show: Anthony Alford, OF: Perhaps the most athletic player in the system, Alford also has the type of maturity and professionalism that turns very good players into star. The downside to Alford, though, is that he’s been injury prone throughout his career and has a worrisome history of concussions stemming from his days as a star high school football player. Alford, 23, has a great eye at the plate so he should produce excellent on-base averages to help take advantage of his plus speed. He trimmed his previously-hefty strikeout rate in 2017 but it came at the expense of fewer hard-hit balls. He could sell out and hit 20+ homers but he’s probably better off focusing on getting on base and keeping the power more in the range of 10-12 homers per year.

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I feel like the title is pretty straightforward about what you’re going to see in this piece so I’ll spare y’all a lengthy preamble. There are no doubt more than seven viable rookies for the upcoming season, but this is the group I’m currently focused on as potential contributors.

Brent Honeywell TBR (ADP 208) – I respect what the Rays do as far as pitching development goes, but how does Honeywell not even get a September look last year?! The 23-year old right-hander tore through Double- and Triple-A last year with a 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 30% K, and 6% BB in 137 innings. An absurd .396 BABIP through his first 14 Triple-A starts inflated the ERA (4.91 in that time), but when it smoothed out to .316 from July on, he put on a show: 1.79 ERA, 27% K-BB in 50 IP. He’s known for a true screwball that is nasty, but novelty of that can overshadow the fact that he has four other offerings in his repertoire and only the curve consistently grades below average among scouts.

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It feels like the Yankees can do no wrong. They went out and stole Giancarlo Stanton… their club is littered with high-ceiling talent… and the minor league system still has a of gems, including underrated players like Matt Sauer and Miguel Andujar.

The Graduate: Aaron Judge, OF: He’s good. Really good.

First Taste of The Show: Miguel Andujar, 3B: I wrote a glowing report for Andujar in last year’s version of this series, and all those things continue to be true. The young third baseman showed very well in both double-A and triple-A, and even received a brief taste of The Show. He has a chance to be a .300 hitter with 20+ homers given his ability to make consistent, hard contact. Andujar is still too aggressive for his own good so his ability to produce a solid on-base average will rely heavily on the hit tool. I don’t think it’s out of line to expect an all-star caliber season or two from this prospect and I wouldn’t blame the Yankees if they decided to give Andujar a shot at the third base job in 2018 in an effort to save some money.

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