Archive for Prospects

Ottoneu: The Value In Keeping Minor Leaguers

If you are rostering a player in the minor leagues who has yet to debut, how are justifying it? I don’t write that to be critical, I’m rostering a few myself and I ask myself the same question whenever I look over my roster. If your answer is something like, “They could be really good in the future!”, then you are also thinking like me and everyone else who is rostering young, yet-to-debut minor leaguers. Who are some of these players? Here are just a few hand-selected examples with high average salaries in Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues:

Hitters
Marco Luciano, $5.08
Anthony Volpe, $4.88
Jasson Domínguez, $4.37

Pitchers
Jack Leiter, $5.52
Grayson Rodriguez, $5.47
Eury Pérez, $4.29

A player like Grayson Rodriguez can be found on the auction calculator because he is expected to join the O’s rotation either out of camp or early in the season. Using Steamer projection and the auction calculator’s FanGraphs points pre-settings, Rodriguez projects as a $1 player. Technically, he’s not worth rostering with a projected value of $-13.4, but you can usually treat any player with negative value as a $1 player. Regardless, he’s not expected to be worth the $5 plus he’s averaging in Ottoneu leagues, but his rookie season is not the reason you would roster him. You would roster him in hopes that he will be worth much more than $1 in 2024, 2025, and on. If you’re paying $5 now, he’s worth $1 now, but you’ll be paying him $7 next year when he’s worth $10, and maybe you’re doing alright. That statement probably deserves a much deeper dive, but for now, I’ll stay out of that rabbit hole.

This is the fun part of rostering yet-to-debut minor-league players. It’s literally prospecting. It’s fun to do with Bowman autographed baseball cards and it’s fun to do in fantasy baseball leagues. This prospecting becomes more exciting as the player gets closer and closer to success. But, what about a pitcher like Jack Leiter? Technically he edges out Grayson Rodriguez ever-so-slightly in average salary, but here’s a bold prediction; Jack Leiter will not return $5.52 in FanGraphs points leagues this season. Ok, maybe not so bold. No one can predict the future, but this one seems like a gimme. Last year (2022), Corey Kluber returned $5.70. If Leiter were to do the same in 2023, he’d have to be around Kluber’s 2022 numbers:

Player Comparisons
Name/Seaon IP K H BB HBP HR SV HOLDS
Corey Kluber, 2022 Actuals 164 139 178 21 10 20 0 0
Jack Leiter, 2023 Projection 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Jack Leiter, 2022 AA Actuals 92.2 109 88 56 8 11 0 0
Steamer Projections

First of all, Kluber only walked 21 batters in 2022!? That’s the lowest total among all starters with at least 160 innings pitched and seven less than second-place Kevin Gausman. That’s what you can or should get for around $5.00 in FanGraphs points leagues. Kluber’s current average Ottoneu salary sits at $6.66. Second, I included Leiter’s Steamer projection tongue in cheek, he basically has no projection. His player page does have a 2023 MLB ETA, but who knows? So, we can’t realistically project Leiter’s 2023 value. I suppose we could compare his minor-league stats. That’s also unfair but at least it gives us some semblance of what he can do. Luckily, Dan Szymborski does the good work of projecting player performance a few years ahead with ZIPS:

Jack Leiter, ZIPS 3-Year
Year IP K H BB HBP HR SV HOLDS
2023 94.7 88 90 52 9 14 0 0
2024 98.0 92 90 49 8 13 0 0
2025 102.7 97 92 49 7 13 0 0

I tossed in the HBP projections myself, thinking that maybe Leiter will gain a little more control over time, and I projected no holds, the rest is provided by ZIPS. Before you start going crazy over this projection remember that volatility in projections for players who have never played in the major leagues is very high. So, let’s get even more volatile! Let’s imagine that ZIPS is being very conservative and that Leiter’s 2024 season looks more like a combination of 2023 and 2024. This is a big assumption, I know, but stick with me. Here’s where Leiter would be in 2024:

Experimental Mode, Sum of ZIPS (2023,2024)
Year IP K H BB HBP HR S
2024 EXP 192.7 180 180 80 7 27 0

I tweaked the HBP and BB totals to reflect a more realistic total, but the other categories are the sum of 23′ and 24′ ZIPS. If this turned out to be true, what would his value be in 2024? In FanGraphs points leagues, this projection would be worth approximately 725 points (rPTS on the table below). Now, we have something to work with. The auction calculator has the following pitchers in that realm for the 2023 season:

Players Projected for ~725 rPTS (2023)
Name Team POS ADP IP rPTS PTS aPOS Dollars
Nestor Cortes NYY SP 113 167.0 732.46 -1.59 5.95 5.36
Joe Ryan MIN SP 142 169.6 723.98 -2.69 5.95 4.26
Martin Perez TEX SP 314 183.9 720.79 -3.10 5.95 3.85
*Steamer
**FanGraphs Points Leagues auction calculator

Remember my bold/not-very-bold prediction from earlier? I’m prepared to apply that to the 2024 season as well. Jack Leiter’s current average salary of $5.52 may not be what he’s worth until beyond 2024 even if he ends up being Nestor Cortes, which is a huge if. Up until this point, I have written nothing about arbitration, but it’s very possible that someone in your league could bump his salary up a few dollars and you would no longer be making smart decisions by rostering him. Could I be wrong about all of this? Yes! I have no doubt that Leiter will be a successful major league pitcher, but Ottoneu FanGraphs points fantasy leagues roster-able? Now? No. Why did I write all of this? Well, because I’m rostering a $6 Jack Leiter and had a theory about why that was a bad decision. Finally, just before the January 31st keeper deadline, I’m ready to let him go. Farewell my friend. I hope to pick you up for $1 in the draft and start this prospecting process all over again, but at a much more reasonable price.


Buck’s Bucks and the Unlabeled Spreadsheet

Tye Tolberman sat in his favorite armchair on the coldest day of mid-January in western Maryland, steam coming off his morning coffee as he looked out the window. He took one glance at the ice covering his driveway and decided he just wasn’t going outside today. On his side table sat a pile of unopened letters, a checklist of things needed to be done, and a printed-out spreadsheet a friend had given him the last time he went east to see the Bowie Baysox play last summer.

“It fell out of some scout’s binder the last time I was here. He went flying out of there after the starting pitcher got taken out, so I couldn’t catch him to give it back”, his friend told him as they sat and took in a night game. “Anyways, you can have it if you want. I’m not wasting my time with that fantasy baseball crap this year. I’ve got too much real life to live”, and he placed it in the hands of ol’ Tye Tolberman, manager of the going-on 14-year-old “Buck’s Bucks” fantasy team.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Arbitration Targets – Prospects

“But wait, Chad,” you say. “You have told us so many times that allocation arbitration dollars to prospects doesn’t make sense! Why even write this article?”

“You’re right,” I reply. “I probably shouldn’t. But I am going to do it anyway. Let me tell you why.”

Read the rest of this entry »


Prepping Young Starters with Relief Appearances

On Monday, September 5th, Labor Day, I sat in parking lot traffic in Baltimore, trying to make it into Camden Yards by the first pitch. This was a first in a long time. I wasn’t clogged in a traffic jam trying to leave the parking lot, I was trying to get in. As a Maryland native, Camden Yards has been the place where I’ve taken in the majority of my live baseball action and I could tell, as parking lot attendants waived me on to the next lot around the block, something was in the air. When I got to the stadium, there was more energy, more talk in the crowd about the actual team, and though the nose-bleed seats in left-field remained empty, there were more fans. Baltimore has always drawn an excellent, engaged fanbase to the stadium. But as you can imagine, the past few years have been a little quieter. On Monday the fans piled in to watch a pivotal matchup against the division rival Blue Jays and in the top of the eighth, the Orioles held the game at a one-run deficit.

O’s reliever Bryan Baker was throwing when this happened:

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1087 – 10 Potential Call-Up Hitters

8/18/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

  • Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show

10 HITTING PROSPECTS

Read the rest of this entry »


Analyzing Hitters Jumping from AAA to the Majors

Over the last two seasons, several highly-touted rookies have struggled with the jump to the majors like Jo Adell, Jarred Kelenic, Joey Bart, and Josh Lowe. I examined strikeout and shift numbers. Also, I wanted to find the major league replacement level OPS where hitters get demoted this season. Usually, it’s just under .650 but I was wondering if it has changed.

I’m not going to put a story around each study. Examples of hitters struggling with the jump to the majors are everywhere. I just want the facts when those stories pop up in the future. Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – Call-Ups Episode w/ Pierre Camus

The Call-Ups Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Pierre Camus

Strategy Section

  • General strategy regarding June Call-Ups / mid-season prospects
  • Are hitter call-ups more or less valuable / reliable than pitcher call-ups?
  • Trading prospects in redraft leagues

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Read the rest of this entry »


Three Over-Rostered Prospects

Last week, I covered four prospects rostered in less than 10% of Ottoneu leagues who deserve more attention. This week, I want to go the other direction and look at prospects who are rostered in too many leagues. This proved far more difficult, for a couple of reasons.

Read the rest of this entry »


Triple-A Hitter ISO Leaders — Jun 16, 2022

Yesterday, I listed and reviewed the six hitters who had posted a 30%+ HR/FB rate at Triple-A this season. Sadly, the list didn’t result in a whole lot of actionable advice. Today, I’ll shift to a related metric, ISO. In terms of overall offense, it’s more important than HR/FB rate since it accounts for doubles and triples as well. Given the number of duplicates on both lists and an attempt to capture more actionable players, I extended the list to the top 10. Let’s hope this time the names are more interesting.

Read the rest of this entry »


Triple-A Hitter HR/FB Leaders — Jun 15, 2022

Let’s move our Triple-A review to hitters. Us fantasy owners probably care most about a prospect’s home run potential, so let’s review the HR/FB rate leaders. These are the guys who have recorded at least 150 PAs and posted a HR/FB rate of at least 30%.

Read the rest of this entry »