Prospects & Prospects & Prospects, Oh My!
Let’s continue diving into some recent prospect call-ups to determine whether any deserve to join your fantasy squad. In addition to three prospect names, I included a bonus in light of the Austin Riley injury.
Grant McCray | SFG
McCray was recalled by the Giants last Wednesday and hasn’t started every game since, cementing himself as the team’s starting center fielder. The 23-year-old was the team’s eighth best prospect, but failed to make the top 100. Looking at his scouting grades, you might expect a touch of power, good stolen base potential, and strong defense extending his leash and keeping him in the lineup.
For a guy with just 35/45 Game and 45/55 Raw Power, he’s certainly shown more than his grades suggest! He has posted double digit HR/FB rates everywhere he has played, including a 16.2% mark at Triple-A this year, plus some solid enough ISO marks, including hovering around .200 at Double-A and Triple-A this season. His fly ball rates have been all over the map though, as he posted a 42.1% mark at Double-A this year, but just a 28% mark at Triple-A. So it’s difficult to gauge his true batted ball profile, which in turn makes it difficult to project his home run upside. He did post a 40.9% HardHit% and 109.6 MPH maxEV at Triple-A, both suggesting at least average power.
Strikeouts have oddly been an issue, which you wouldn’t expect from someone who isn’t projected to hit for a lot of power. He has always posted a SwStk% in the mid-teen range, while his strikeout rates have typically hovered around 30%, but improved to 25.4% at Triple-A this year. At least he has been patient at the plate, typically walking at a double digit clip, though that mark fell just into single digits at Triple-A.
Has BABIP has generally been strong with some real high marks, aside from his stint at Double-A this year where he posted a mark just below .300. Given the potentially high strikeout rate, a high BABIP is a must to avoid batting sub-.200.
Finally, we turn our attention to his stolen base potential. He swiped 43 bases in 2022 and 52 last year. However, he had stolen just 14 before his promotion to the Majors this year, which is quite a decline from his two previous seasons. It wasn’t a matter of a poor success rate, but he did get on base at a lower clip. Like his home run potential given the yo-yoing of his FB%, it’s now difficult to predict how willing he’ll be to steal bases. Will he run wild like in 2023 or just like a 15-20 steal guy like this year? The answer will have a dramatic effect on his fantasy potential.
Overall, there are lots of unknowns here, but if you need steals in a deep league, particularly one that uses OBP instead of batting average, he’s worth a speculation.
Connor Norby | MIA
In an effort to clear out some of the embarrassment of riches the Orioles possessed, they traded Norby to the Marlins at the trade deadline. The expectation was that he would be immediately recalled and serve as the team’s starting second baseman, but shockingly, that didn’t happen. Instead, we had to wait a couple of weeks and he’s finally back up after a cup of coffee with the Orioles. As I type this, he has actually been penciled in as the team’s starting third baseman. Wherever he plays, he should start the rest of the season.
Norby actually wasn’t much of a prospect on our latest rankings. He ranked just 18th among Orioles prospects with a 40 FV and mediocre grades, at best, across the board. And yet, he has hit quite well in the minors, making me wonder what the disconnect is.
He posted a 20% HR/FB rate and .222 ISO at Triple-A this year, which was a step up from last year’s marks at the same level, and he was even better from a power perspective back in 2022 at Double-A. The caveat here is that he posted just a 106.9 MPH maxEV at Triple-A this year, which is pretty weak, and definitely doesn’t typically suggest a power hitter. His HardHit% is clearly bugged on his player page, but it stood at just 35.3% at Triple-A last year. So his HR/FB rates have been significantly higher than what you would expect given the underlying Statcast skills. Both his former and new home park dramatically suppress right-handed home runs, so I don’t think his minor league home run rates are going to translate. I didn’t believe they would have to begin with given the weak maxEV, but the home park will make it even more challenging for him.
His strikeout rate spiked this year, rising into the high-20% range, though his SwStk% was still acceptable. He has posted inflated BABIP marks for most of his career, thanks to a strong LD% and low IFFB%. He’ll need that to counteract the potentially high strikeout rate, especially if his power fails to translate. He looks like he’ll chip in a steal here and there, as he swiped 10 bases last year and 13 this year, but he’s not going to be a big contributor there.
Overall, I’m not particularly enthused about his fantasy potential this year in a pitcher friendly home park, poor lineup, and skills that I was unsure would translate to begin with. He’s an NL-Only guy only, maaaaaaybe a deep mixed leaguer.
Andrés Chaparro | WAS
It’s not often you find the team’s 33rd ranked prospect with a 35+ FV (from 2023) starting every day and batting cleanup in half of his starts, but that’s exactly where Chaparro has found himself. With scouting grades that don’t exceed 50, he certainly didn’t look like a potential fantasy asset. But he’s now started at first base four games and DH twice, so I would imagine as long as he avoids a major slump, he’ll keep starting.
Chaparro was acquired from the Diamondbacks at the trade deadline and the Nationals are clearly eager to see what they’ve got. He posted a 19.6% HR/FB rate and .232 ISO at Triple-A this year, which was backed by a 111.2 maxEV. For whatever reason though, his FB% slipped to its lowest since 2017, which capped his home run potential. That said, most of those missing flies actually became line drives, as his LD% skyrocketed to an elite level, so it was a fair tradeoff from a wOBA perspective.
He has actually posted pretty good strikeout rates throughout his career, despite double digit SwStk% marks recently. Typically that comes with a low walk rate and a swing-at-everything approach. But he walks too! So I’m not sure how he gets to those walk and strikeout rates with low double digit SwStk% marks, but it’s a nice combo of walk and strikeout rates.
All those line drives this year fueled a .372 BABIP, but he’s never done anything close to that in the past, so it looks like a total fluke, and perhaps what led to the Nationals trading for him and ultimately to his promotion. Since he has no speed, the hope here is the BABIP and batting average is legit and he’ll deliver some home runs. Unfortunately, there’s little chance the BABIP is real, and while the home run upside looks acceptable, it’s nothing special. He’s just an NL-Only guy.
Luke Williams | ATL
My gosh, with the injury now to Austin Riley, the Braves have an all-star team on the IL. The thought is they will stay internal to replace Riley and with Williams the only option already on the 40-man roster, he might get the first shot. So let’s talk about his fantasy potential if that is indeed the case.
The 28-year-old has recorded just 283 MLB PAs since 2021 for five different teams. He has displayed a serious lack of power over a relatively small sample, posting a tiny 3.2% HR/FB rate and microscopic .065 ISO, resulting in just two home runs. He has struck out a bit more than you would like, especially for someone who has shown no power, while walking at a below average clip as well. At least he has posted an above average .306 BABIP, but that simply hasn’t been good enough to offset the lack of power and high strikeout rate.
There is some good news, at least at the MLB level — his speed. Despite posting just a .277 OBP, he has stolen 17 bases, which would equate to over 30 over a full season. That immediately gives him value in deeper leagues.
Since we have a limited MLB track record to evaluate, let’s talk minor league performance. He has played at Triple-A since 2021, so with that much experience, you need to take his performance with a couple of grains of salt. That said, his power has really come alive over the past two seasons. His HR/FB rate has jumped into double digits, including a career best 15.1% mark at Triple-A this year, while his ISO has risen and reached .221 this year. That’s pretty good! What isn’t good is his HardHit% of just 29.8% and maxEV of just 106.6 MPH this year. Both suggest he’ll have trouble hitting for anywhere close to that power in the Majors.
Moving onto his speed, he stole 15 bases in 201 PAs at Triple-A this year, which is about a 45 steal pace over a full season. Regardless of whether we get a homer or not from him, a 45-steal pace works in most league formats and sizes.
It’s difficult to project his BABIP, as that’s been up and down throughout his career, but he does seem to hit a lot of pop-ups, while his FB% jumped this year. That’s bad news for his BABIP, even though it settled in at .358 this year, thanks to an inflated LD% which is likely unsustainable. It all means he’s unlikely to contribute in batting average, but perhaps his value is boosted in OBP leagues if his double digit walk rates last year return.
Overall, he’s worth a chance in deep leagues if you need steals. Anything else from him would just be a bonus and the Braves probably won’t be very patient here if he starts off slow at the plate.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Thanks for these write ups, as some of these guys seem to come out of nowhere. I like the reference to Luke Williams as a prospect though… he’s been up and down in the MLB for years and all I seem to catch him do is pinch run. Two homers in 183 MLB PA over four years is all one needs to know.
I happened to witness one of those two home runs live, a walk-off vs the Braves in 2021. That wasn’t even the coolest part though – his walk-up song was “Holy Diver”.