Fantasy Update: 2024 Re-Draft and Dynasty Prospects to Know

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Prospects have become increasingly important to winning re-draft fantasy leagues. Of course, they have always been major in-season acquisitions, but now they’re making their presence felt at the draft table, too. With more fantasy managers aware of the prospects who are likely to have an impact in a given season, the battle for their services has become much more fevered, leading some managers to stash desirable prospects for a month or two rather than try to pluck them off the wire once they are called up and risk missing out.

These guys aren’t draftable in every format, but I cast a wide net so that the list has utility across many formats and can be revisited when those who don’t break camp on a big league roster are called up. All of them should be in the majors for a substantial portion of the 2024 season. It is worth familiarizing yourself with them so that you’re ready to bid on the ones who aren’t draftable in your particular league.

These rankings are now available on the 2024 Fantasy Rankings tab of The Board, where you can also see the Top 150 Dynasty Rankings!

This year, I’ve added fantasy profile comparisons for each hitter to give you an idea of what to expect from them upon arrival. Remember, these are for the 2024 season; some of these players will develop beyond these specific comparisons in future years. I tried to stay as current as possible with my comps, but sometimes I reached a little further back in the vault when the fit was just too good to pass up. There might also be some handedness switches, as I focused more on the statistical output than a perfect 1:1 on their look.

The average draft position (ADP) included is from Draft Champions leagues from January 16 to February 16 at the NFBC, which you can find here. These leagues draft 50 players and that’s all they get for the year — no pickups or drops. That means all the relevant prospects get selected, which helps give us an idea of how the market views them.

The Trio from Overseas

This winter, three major players came over from NPB and the KBO, and while they aren’t traditional prospects who came through MLB’s minor league system (and will no longer be featured on our Top 100), they will still be treated as standard issue rookies for fantasy baseball purposes.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto | RHP, LAD | 45 ADP

Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin said Yamamoto would’ve been no. 2 on the Top 100 had they included him. He comes over as one of the most complete pitchers we have ever seen out of Japan, a fact not lost on the fantasy community given his sky-high draft price. Projections co-sign the hype, suggesting a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA with a good-to-elite (1.00-1.20) WHIP and tons of strikeouts (approximately 26%). Some fantasy managers will be too nervous to spend a top 50 pick on someone who has never thrown a major league pitch and I understand the trepidation, but the upside is massive, and the 25-year-old looks about as “can’t-miss” as you can get from NPB.

Shōta Imanaga | LHP, CHC | 198 ADP

Imanaga looks like he will produce on a level more in line with the guy he is replacing in Chicago, Marcus Stroman, but as a lefty. Coincidentally, he landed right behind Stroman in our Top 50 Free Agent list, slotting in at no. 12. Stro posted a 3.95 ERA/1.26 WHIP in 137 innings for the Cubs last year, which is right in line with Imanaga’s ATC projection: 3.92/1.22 in 141. Home run suppression is the biggest concern for the 30-year-old, as he was pretty long ball-prone in NPB, a league that’s homer-lite compared to MLB, so the question is whether or not his low-90s heat and slow, looping curve will allow too many home runs to keep his ERA under 4.00 stateside.

Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 | OF, SFG | 256 ADP

Regardless of how Lee performs in his debut season, he comes over with one of the greatest nicknames ever: The Grandson of the Wind. He came in at no. 14 on our Free Agent list, with Eric underscoring the incredible bat-to-ball skills and strong glove that highlight Lee’s profile. He did pop 23 HRs in 2022, though he followed it up with just six last year, so the 10 HR/600 PA over his career is a better indicator of his upside in San Francisco. He also has 10 SB/600 PA, so you miiight get a double-double with his strong batting average, but there is some risk of an empty average, so plan accordingly when rostering Lee.

Fantasy Profile Comp: Present-day Andrew Benintendi

Hitters

Evan Carter & Wyatt Langford | OF, TEX | EC: 132 ADP – WL: 169 ADP

I know a lot of people are higher on Langford, but I’m a Carter guy for 2024. First off, he will be on the big league team when they break camp, which remains a question for Langford (though it’s unlikely Langford will spend too much time in Triple-A if he hits anything like he did after being drafted last summer). Secondly, his brilliant plate discipline and ability to get on base should help him excel in the most overlooked fantasy category: runs. That should also help him stay in the upper half of the lineup (or at least the top five spots), though rarely-if-ever in the leadoff spot, with present-day Ironman Marcus Semien locked atop the Texas order.

Carter could find himself in the no. 2 spot early on if Corey Seager isn’t able to return from offseason hernia surgery by Opening Day. He also has excellent speed that could yield 20+ SBs, especially given how frequently he will be on base. Most of the projection systems have Carter coming up short of 20 SBs, though that is more likely tied to his platoon risk, as only ZiPS has him reaching 600 PA. He could take a step forward versus lefties, but it’s prudent to plan for the missed time until proven otherwise.

Langford does have an undeniable power edge over Carter, and his blazing hot run through four levels post-draft has expectations at a fever pitch for the 22-year-old. And like Carter, Langford is a strong base runner, swiping 12 bases in 15 tries during that 200 PA late-summer surge. I’m not going to mount a severe anti-Langford case here, because I am a fan of him as well. I just prefer Carter given the stronger playing time outlook, elite on-base skills, and at least some big league experience (149 PA between September and the playoffs). Langford could be the next in a growing line of recent rookies to hit the ground running, but I just prefer his teammate a little more. Maybe go all in on Texas and take both!

Fantasy Profile Comp: Shin-Soo Choo 추신수 for Carter, Tommy Pham for Langford

Jackson Chourio | OF, MIL | 145 ADP

Chourio made waves on the fantasy landscape this winter with an eight-year, $82 million deal that drove a significant price surge, as his average draft position moved from 200 in 31 drafts before the signing to 145 in 112 drafts since then. The contract all but guarantees Chourio a spot on the Brewers’ 2024 Opening Day roster despite having just a week of games at Triple-A under his belt. Even if he doesn’t break camp with the club, expectations are that we get at least five months of Chourio in the majors, which is more than enough time to put up substantial fantasy production. He has a power-speed outlook similar to Langford’s, though with a less refined plate profile that gives him some extra batting average risk.

That said, he has made improvements in his strikeout rate, and we are still talking about someone who is three weeks away from turning 20 as of this writing. The combo of power, speed, and the drop in Ks is enough to fuel a strong BABIP upon arrival, but it’s best to plan for a lighter batting average as Chourio finds his footing in the bigs. Transcendent raw skills like this can carry a player far even as he works through the finer points of his game, and even if his patience doesn’t develop to a league average or better level, he can still be a premier fantasy producer in line with some recent power-speed standouts.

Fantasy Profile Comp: A Luis Robert Jr./Michael Harris II blend

Noelvi Marte | 3B, CIN | 164 ADP

Marte’s debut got a bit lost in the shuffle last year, with Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer garnering most of the attention. The 22-year-old enjoyed a solid month-plus in the majors with 3 HR and 6 SB in 123 PA. Power carries the profile and it will be enhanced by playing in Cincinnati, but don’t sleep on Marte’s 24-for-30 performance on the bases across Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors, aided by a 91st-percentile Sprint Speed displayed during his September call-up. His Top 100 profile noted some disconnect between his raw power and how it plays in games, meaning we might not see the best of him immediately. That said, the aforementioned boost of the park plus his residence in one of the deeper lineups in the league gives him a chance to deliver strong fantasy output even if he battles some inconsistency during his rookie campaign.

Fantasy Profile Comp: It might not be super creative, but he could be this year’s Steer (23 HR, 15 SB, .271 AVG).

Jackson Holliday | SS, BAL | 211 ADP

The sharp shift in prospect timelines over the last couple years has made rookies a huge part of the fantasy game, to the point where they can no longer be ignored. They aren’t required for success, but you should at least be familiar with the top 15-25 guys expected to make an impact on the current year’s landscape. Holliday was drafted just two years ago and only recently turned 20 years old, but thanks to a blistering four-level season that saw him finish with a solid three-week showing at Triple-A after torching Low-, High-, and Double-A, he’s now on the cusp of making a big-league impact.

The extreme riches of the Orioles system give them the luxury of taking their time with Holliday, but GM Mike Elias has made it clear that he will have every opportunity to go north with the club, meaning we could get a full season from the consensus no. 1 prospect in baseball. Within his comments about Holliday’s outlook for 2024, Elias said he will likely bounce between short and second. That’s great for his playing time potential and could take some pressure off him, as his glove at short isn’t top tier right now, though it could also present some challenges, as it’s a lot to manage playing two positions while learning big league pitching. Volume is his best chance at being a fantasy star this year, as neither his power nor his hit tool are fully developed just yet.

Fantasy Profile Comp: Early career Xander Bogaerts from the left side – Bogaerts had 10 HR, 6 SB per 600 PA in his first two seasons.

Colt Keith | INF, DET | 302 ADP

Keith is a bat-first (only?) prospect who put together an excellent season at Double- and Triple-A, blasting 27 HR with a .306/.380/.552 slash line in 577 PA. The Tigers were impressed enough to ink him to a six-year, $29 million deal that can go as high as nine years and $82 million. His glove is atrocious, and he only plays multiple positions in an effort to hide his defense and get his bat in the lineup. Once in Triple-A, he was playing more second base than third, but he could bounce between the two and DH with the Tigers. Signing the deal makes him a safe bet to break camp with the big league club, and with a shot at six months of production, he slots ahead of multiple prospects who are no doubt better than him in the long-term — but that’s where the difference between a redraft and dynasty league list comes in.

Fantasy Profile Comp: I was thinking Daniel Murphy trading some hit tool for power, but then I saw the Nolan Gorman comp in Keith’s Top 100 profile and I can’t get off that, so hat tip to Eric and Tess on that one.

 Junior Caminero | 3B, TBR | 242 ADP

Caminero’s brilliant two-level season (High- and Double-A) was rewarded with a week in the majors, and while he likely won’t break camp with the Rays, he has a great shot to get four-plus months of major league time if he picks up where his 2023 left off. He already has standout power, particularly for someone who only just turned 20 last summer, making it easy to dream on his incredible upside. For fantasy purposes, however, he resides on one of the most frustrating teams in the league when it comes to prospect promotion, and in this case, they are actually justified in slow rolling Caminero a bit, as his position is occupied by a 25-year-old who just hit 31 HRs (Isaac Paredes). The trade for José Caballero paired with Caminero’s move over to third last year likely dashes any hope of a return to shortstop, making it easy to see him spending the first month-plus of the season in Triple-A waiting for an opening on the big league team. Amed Rosario signed with the team right as this piece was set to go live and while he has never played third, he is another infield bat who could delay Caminero’s return to the majors.

Fantasy Profile Comp: Austin Riley – massive power from Day 1.

Dylan Crews | OF, WAS | 531 ADP

The fantasy hype has been non-existent this winter for last summer’s no. 2 overall pick and to an extent, I get it — we just don’t know how motivated the Nationals will be to get him to the majors before the summer. But I don’t want to lose sight of Crews’ incredible upside. He fizzled out a bit at Double-A in his post-draft performance, which looks worse when juxtaposed with Langford’s insane run, but we shouldn’t overrate either sample. I suspect he will spend at least 4-6 weeks in the minors fine tuning his game, which makes him a tough draft in leagues that don’t have either specific minor league slots or a lot of reserve slots, like the NFBC Online Championship and Main Event formats. Those both have just seven reserves, making it really hard to knowingly take a prospect with a summer ETA. And given the rather dim outlook for the Nationals this year, I’m not even sure Crews could go full Anthony Volpe and force his way onto the roster with a strong spring showing. That said, keep him firmly planted on your watchlist, as I believe he will be an impact player upon arrival as the proverbial jack of all trades, master of none.

Fantasy Profile Comp: Something akin to Miami Christian Yelich, who averaged 12 HR, 14 SB in 562 PA over his five seasons as a Marlin.

Jordan Lawlar | SS, ARI | 310 ADP

Lawlar needed just 105 games to put up 20 HR and 36 SB across Double- and Triple-A last year. He capped off his season with a two-week cup of coffee in the majors and was even a bench bat/defensive replacement during the playoffs. Speed and defense drive the profile while the bat carries plenty of upside, including solid pop upon arrival. With just 16 games in Triple-A, the 21-year-old will likely be headed back there. The D-backs are committed to Geraldo Perdomo at shortstop, while newcomer Eugenio Suárez blocks off third base and the arrival of Joc Pederson as a strong side DH keeps Ketel Marte at second base. It doesn’t make sense to carry Lawlar on the roster with just 1-2 starts a week when he can still very much benefit from everyday burn in the minors. That said, he has immediate fantasy upside upon arrival and almost any infield injury would clear a path for his return.

Fantasy Profile Comp: Early career Dansby Swanson with a bit more SB upside because of the changes to the big league environment for steals. It’s worth noting that Swanson was also mentioned in Lawlar’s Top 100 profile and I definitely have no problem being aligned with Eric and Tess on a player comp.

 Jasson Domínguez | OF, NYY | 450 ADP

Domínguez would no doubt slot higher in this piece if he wasn’t working his way back from a late-season Tommy John surgery that could push his 2024 debut to sometime in July. But even a half-season of work is enough to make a fantasy impact, especially given what we saw from “The Martian” last year. I’m not just talking about his incredible 4 HR in eight games before the TJ; his dominance at Double-A was something behold, as he had 15 HR and 37 SB in 507 PA.

That tiny blip of production at the big-league level likely mitigated the looming prospect fatigue with Domínguez, because while he is just 21 years old this season, he has been in the baseball consciousness since 2019 when he was but a child. The well-built switch-hitter has standout skills throughout his profile, with big power, blazing speed, and a sharp eye. A good bit of swing-and-miss is the only real flaw right now, which cuts into his AVG upside. He could essentially function as a midseason acquisition for the Yankees, bolstering their lineup (as well as many fantasy lineups) for the stretch run.

Fantasy Profile Comp: Given his stature, switch-hitting capability, and power-speed profile, I keep coming back to José Ramírez. Except with his power, Domínguez might jump right to peak Ramírez (28 HR/23 SB per 600 PA since 2017).

Keep Tabs on These Guys

  • Parker Meadows, OF | DET: A power-speed bat with a strong eye and a good chance at 500+ PA atop the Tigers lineup, though he might struggle to eclipse even a .230 AVG.
  • Wilyer Abreu, OF | BOS: I was impressed by his limited 85 PA big league sample last year and think he could be a sneaky contributor this season even if he’s just a strong side platoon (17 HR/20 SB per 500 PA in the minors).
  • Joey Ortiz, INF | MIL: His move out of Baltimore by way of the Corbin Burnes deal was good for his playing time outlook in 2024, as he looks like a solid double-double accumulator who could be a real AVG asset if his hit tool continues to develop.
  • Michael Busch, 2B | CHC: The trade to the Cubs finally gives him the chance to show his plus power and solid plate skills at the big league level.
  • Jackson Merrill, INF | SDP: An excellent bat who could debut this year, but 2B/SS/3B are firmly blocked in San Diego; after just five games in left field last season, the club has said they’re going to try him in the outfield this spring, which could get his bat up sooner.
  • Heston Kjerstad, DH/OF | BAL: The no. 2 pick from 2020 reestablished himself on the prospect landscape with a big 2023. There’s no room at the inn for now, but once he gets his shot, I’m all in for deeper formats, though don’t forget that he’s UT-only for now.
  • Colton Cowser, OF | BAL: Speaking of no room at the inn, the insane depth in Baltimore likely has Cowser waiting for an opening or a trade.
  • Coby Mayo, INF | BAL: Mayo is facing the same uphill battle Kjerstad and Cowser are, but he also isn’t yet on the 40-man. If the O’s make a trade to backfill the Kyle Bradish injury, one of these three could be the centerpiece and find themselves with a big league opportunity.
  • Tyler Black, INF | MIL: A better fantasy than real life prospect, Black has a strong bat, huge speed (55 SB last yr), and a sharp eye, but his poor glove and lack of a 40-man spot have him ticketed for Triple-A barring a huge spring training. Be ready to pounce when he’s called up.
  • Masyn Winn, SS | STL: He has a bead on the starting shortstop role, and he could accumulate a double-double (10+ HR and SB) if the Cardinals commit to him, but he’s a bit raw to be a major player on the fantasy landscape just yet.
  • Victor Scott II, OF | STL: I’m not sure where the playing time comes from right now, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t include someone who stole 112 bases in 717 PA between A+/AA/AFL. Scott should be instant SB production once he gets the call.
  • Kyle Manzardo, 1B | CLE: Manzardo will have to battle Rule 5 pick Deyvison De Los Santos for the first base role and doesn’t bring traditional power for the position even if he does win the job, making him more of a deep league option.
  • Curtis Mead, CIF | TBR: Mead’s presence made Manzardo expendable for the Rays, as they don’t have a spot for one, let alone both, especially with Caminero now passing Mead at third. A big AVG is his best chance at delivering significant fantasy value when he does get his shot. As with Caminero, Rosario’s February 20 signing is another indirect roadblock to Mead’s arrival.
  • Brayan Rocchio, SS | CLE: Rocchio’s one of my favorite mid-tier prospects, though I’m careful not to overrate his fantasy outlook. He will need volume to be a real weapon, with SB likely being his only impact category. If he can bring that near 1:1 BB/K rate from Triple-A to the majors, we could see a plus slash line eventually as well.
  • Brooks Lee, MIF | MIN: A solid across-the-board profile who can make an impact with enough playing time, Lee will have to wait for that opportunity, as both shortstop and third are blocked off by two of Minnesota’s best players (though both Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa are substantial injury risks).
  • Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/INF | BOS: I love the glove and the speed, I’m just not sure Rafaela’s bat will be ready to contribute in anything but the deepest fantasy leagues this year.
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF | CHC: Similar to Rafaela, the elite glove is PCA’s avenue to playing time, but he will likely need volume to deliver anything fantasy relevant and even then it’s more on the 15-team Mixed or NL-only landscape.

 

Pitchers

After last year’s banner class, this year’s rookie crop doesn’t look to be nearly as strong. As such, I didn’t want to force 10 profiles just to match the hitter section. The pitching class will no doubt evolve as the season goes on, but only a few guys are draftable this spring.

Paul Skenes | RHP, PIT | 333 ADP

Last year’s no. 1 overall pick and the top pitching prospect in baseball should get a chance this summer if he holds his own in the upper minors. The Pirates gave Skenes a little taste of three levels to cap off his season (just 6.2 IP in 5 GS), and he will start 2024 at either Double- or Triple-A to get some seasoning before a summer debut. The Pirates probably won’t be motivated to rush him to the majors given their modest outlook for 2024, but the big righty should get at least half the season in the majors if he develops as expected.

Kyle Harrison | LHP, SFG | 271 ADP

Harrison debuted last year with a mixed bag of results across his seven starts, as he somehow outran a 2.1 HR/9 to post a 4.15 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 34.2 innings. Perhaps most impressive was the 8% walk rate given his 12% mark in 279 minor league innings, but it’s far too small a sample to say those gains are real. The lefty did flash a legitimate three-pitch mix, and his fastball/slider combo should at least guarantee him a reliever outcome if starting doesn’t work out. He totaled 100 innings between the minors and majors, so the Giants have penciled him into the rotation, where he could reach 150 innings if things go as expected for the 22-year-old southpaw.

AJ Smith-Shawver | RHP, ATL | 418 ADP

Smith-Shawver showed some flashes in a 25-inning big league stint last year, but the acquisition of Chris Sale makes him the team’s sixth starter entering camp and could even result in a return to Triple-A so that he remains stretched out innings-wise. The 21-year-old has a solid four-pitch mix that misses plenty of bats but has also proven difficult for him to consistently control. Add in that he had just 87 total innings last year, and I do wonder what kind of workload the Braves will give him if and when they have opening. He has enough upside that even a small boost in development would be enough to make him fantasy viable across all formats, especially as part of one of the best teams in baseball.

 Jackson Jobe | RHP, DET | 485 ADP

I’m not just being a super-homer with all these Tigers — they actually have several big prospects who could make some noise this year. Jobe landed just fifth on the Tigers list last year after a modest 2022, but he rebounded with a strong 2023 campaign, albeit for just 64 IP as lumbar spine inflammation delayed his season debut until mid-June. He supplemented his season with a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League and is now poised to reach the majors at some point in 2024. With his health issues and just six innings at Double-A, the Tigers won’t be in any rush get him up to Detroit, so he is more likely a midseason call-up unless he just dominates the first 4-6 weeks of the season and forces his way up.

Mason Miller | RHP, OAK | 214 ADP

Plenty of the prospects I’ve included on this list over the years have become relievers, but I rarely include current relievers. Miller is an exception because he should be the closer in Oakland right away. He is undoubtedly the most talented arm in Oakland’s ‘pen and while the team almost certainly won’t win a ton of games again this year, he can secure a mid-20s SV total if he stays upright all season. Trevor May got 21 on a 50-win team and I think the A’s can at least push back into the 60s-win arena this year. For you dynasty folks, Miller still has a path back to the rotation in the future. For now, they just want to keep him healthy for a full year and then go from there.

Keep Tabs on These Guys

  • Gavin Stone, RHP | LAD: Don’t run away from the changeup specialist on the heels of 31 unimpressive innings last year, as there is still major upside in Stone’s arm and the Dodgers rotation isn’t exactly loaded with volume workhorses.
  • Jared Jones, RHP | PIT: After ranking 11th on Pittsburgh’s list last year, Jones was 62nd on the Top 100 after some sharp development in 2023 that now has him looking like a firm mid-rotation arm. After 126 IP last year, he should be able to take on a full workload in 2024, most of which could come in the majors.
  • Will Warren, RHP | NYY: Solid command of a deep arsenal and 129 IP at Double- and Triple-A last year put Warren on the cusp of contributing to the big league team, and Eric likes him even more than other prospects on the 40-man despite Warren being just a non-roster invitee in spring.
  • Max Meyer, RHP | MIA: Returning from an August 2022 Tommy John, Meyer won’t be pushed too hard but could deliver some late-summer value if his recovery goes smoothly. I really like him for 2025 and beyond, but he will remain on my watchlist for 2024.
  • Ricky Tiedemann, LHP | TOR: Tiedemann is a high-upside lefty who should get a chance to contribute this year, but after just 62 IP last year, it’s hard to see him getting ton of innings with the Jays.
  • Cade Horton, RHP | CHC: Horton surged up prospect lists after a strong three-level debut and if he picks up where 2023 left off, his four-pitch mix will be on the verge of contributing to the Cubs this summer.
  • Chase Hampton, RHP | NYY: Hampton has higher long-term upside than Warren, but looks like more of a mid-to-late season call-up after just 107 IP at High- and Double-A in his pro debut.
  • Hurston Waldrep, RHP | ATL: Waldrep blitzed through four levels after going 24th overall last summer. He could probably succeed out of the bullpen today, but he has enough stuff and upside that Atlanta should keep starting him until it’s clear his control won’t work for 5-6 innings at a time.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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CC AFCmember
1 month ago

I keep seeing people say the Pirates aren’t motivated to rush Skenes but I think that’s just not right. They were frisky in the first half of last year and I think they feel they can get there again.

Most importantly, though, the biggest reason for them to take Skenes 1-1 over Langford, Crews, Jenkins, and Clark was that he’s basically immediately MLB ready at their biggest position of weakness. That was as the argument for Skenes there. Crews seemed like the most rounded and close to ready position player, Langford seemed like the best close to ready hitter (we didn’t know Langford was going to blitz the minors, yet), and the high school kids had gigantic ceilings and might cut a deal. And, of course, you get the added benefit of all of them not carrying the injury risk of a pitcher. The entire argument for Skenes was possibly generational pitching prospect who would be ready almost immediately. If they thought they were going to stank and they were willing to let a guy take his time, I think the pick would have been Crews or one of the high schoolers on a cut price deal.

Last edited 1 month ago by CC AFC
Slacker Georgemember
1 month ago
Reply to  CC AFC

I agree 100%, but we don’t know what the Pirate F.O. thought about player valuation and expected development needed. Pirates could have thought Skenes was the best option regardless of his MLB proximity.