Archive for Projections

Introduction

Previously, I looked at the largest auction player bargains of 2020. These were the players who were highly profitable after considering their opportunity cost of acquisition. Value should always be considered relative to cost.

We defined the bargain amount as:

$Bargain = $Value – $AAV

We defined $Value as the accumulated 5×5 full season rotisserie value of each player, and $AAV as the average auction cost to purchase the player pre-season. We made use of the July NFBC Average Auction Values, which was one of the best sources of “market” data this year.

Whereas I previously looked at the players who generated the most excess value in 2020, today’s attention will be directed to what I refer to as the value drainers. These are the largest “rip-offs” of the season – i.e., the players who earned the most negative profits for fantasy owners on a full season basis (net of their auction price).

Prior to unveiling 2020’s most unprofitable players, it is important to discuss one additional step in the analysis – the capping of values. I have previously spoken about this concept, but I will touch on it again today.

Eduardo Rodriguez was a player that I drafted on a few of my fantasy rosters this season. His NFBC average auction value during July drafts (auctions) was $7. In Tout Wars, I acquired the Boston pitcher for $10. Unfortunately, Rodriguez came down with COVID-19. He developed heart complications due to the virus, and consequently did not pitch a single inning in 2020.

The question is – what value did Rodriguez accumulate in 2020? What damage did he cost to your team’s aggregate value? Owners certainly lost their original investment on him, but how much more were they penalized? He wouldn’t have made it to one’s active roster – but how much did it cost owners for Eduardo taking up a bench spot?

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I’ve been grinding my way through the various inputs I use in addition to projection to make my team-building decisions. It’s time for the final few lists.

For reference, here are the factors I’ve already published.

• Hitters who played through an injury.
• Starter and Hitter Injury Risks
• Pitcher Single Season Projections and pERA Values
• Hitter StatCast and Single Season Projections

Also, I’m not going to take into account two minor league related factors: Voit/Muncy List (2020 list) and bumping up hitting prospect projections. Without a minor league season, the Voit/Muncy list can’t be generated.

As for bumping up hitting prospects, I’m going to pass this year. I know there will be prospect rankings but I’ll not give two-shits about them. Even with some reports from the alternate sites and fall instructs, the information will be spotty at best.
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And the 2021 draft prep data dumps continue. Today, the injury chances for hitters and starters take center stage. I’ve been trying to wrap my head around injuries since I’ve started writing about baseball. The reason it’s a difficult subject to nail down is that the information is spotty.

Also, if a player checks all the factors to head to the IL (Injured List), he could have that one magical season (i.e Stephen Strasburg in 2019) when he never gets hurt. Adding to the mess is that the league moved from the 15-day IL to the 10-day IL, back to the 15-day IL (for only pitchers), and then just started making up rules for 2020. Through it all, the following risk assessments cut through a lot of the narratives and are solid going into next season.

Starting Pitchers

During the extended offseason, started reinvestigating my analysis of pitcher injury chances with a literature review, injury chances, and how injuries lead to increase aging. While age and fastball velocity are still factors, career IL days and arm injuries are most likely to point to future injuries and degraded performance. The simple thresholds were 120 career IL days and three or more arm injuries. Here is a list of the starters (min 10 IPin 2020) who meet both criteria (full list).
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Introduction

The key to succeeding in fantasy baseball:

Maximize the value of your accumulated roster.

At the start of a draft, each fantasy owner is handed a set of draft picks. Each owner receives a 1^st round selection, a 2^nd round selection, a 3^rd round selection, and so on. If your league chooses to hold an auction rather than a more traditional serpentine draft – each team is handed $260 at the auction start. Players are then purchased throughout the auction with the use of these finite funds.

The key to gainfully drafting is not to draft a 3^rd round player in the 3^rd round, or a 9^th round player in the 9^th round, etc. The key is to draft a 3^rd round player in the 10^th round, and a 9^th round player in the 20^th round.

In an auction, if you purchase every player at his projected value, you will have paid $260 of auction dollars for $260 of value. What you will have is an average team. You won’t finish last, but you won’t finish first. Instead, with your $260 – you need to buy some $290 or $300 or $310+ of total value.

The key is to make a “profit” on as many roster spots as you can. The goal is to purchase players at bargain prices.

I have asked this question before – but it is worth asking every now and again. Suppose that you competed in an NFBC fantasy baseball auction back in July this season.

Which player was the better purchase?

Bryce Harper (OF, PHI)

OR

Andrew McCutchen (OF, PHI)

Before opining on the better Philly outfield purchase of 2020, let’s take a look at their final 2020 stat lines:

On the surface, it seems like a pretty obvious answer. Harper had more HR, SB, R and a better batting average than McCutchen. He had just one fewer RBI.

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After focusing the 2021 prep on hitters for the last couple of weeks, it’s time for pitchers to take center stage. There is no way to hide that the following is mostly a data dump with a small bit of analysis. Welcome to mid-October 2021 draft prep.

Single Season Projections

These projections are about as simple as it gets. It takes a pitcher’s 2020 results and projections the pitcher going forward based just on those stats. With some pitchers completely changing their pitch arsenal, I find these projections are a better evaluation tool than multi-year averages. For a reference, here is the full write up on how they are created.
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Last season, I introduced two independent projections to help fantasy managers evaluate players. One is based on just the hitter’s previous season production and the other is based entirely on StatCast data. It’s time to have them available for 2021 draft prep.

As I previously stated, this is the reason behind the projections:

I created the projections with inspiration from “The Model Thinker” by Scott Page.* The author states, “do not put too much faith in one model”. To further explain this stance, he states:

“The lesson should be clear: if we can construct multiple diverse, accurate models, then we can make very accurate predictions and valuations and choose good actions.
…
Keep in mind, these second and third models need not be better than the first model. They could be worse. If they are a little less accurate, but categorically (in the literal sense) different, they should be added to the mix. “

Several projection systems already exist. Other projections take many projections and combine them. The issue is that projections are exclusively based on the previous season’s results (e.g. stolen bases, home runs) while incorporating some various levels of regression, aging factors, and yearly weightings. My goal is to create projections that don’t follow this standard cookie-cutter formula. I expect the projections to not be the most accurate because “all models are wrong.” I’m wanting a unique perspective on a hitter’s talent.
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The 2021 draft season may be the most unpredictable one … ever. While several rule changes (e.g. NL DH) can cause some evaluation inconsistencies, the biggest monkey wrench to deal with will be the lack of previous season stats. Projection systems will weight the 60-game 2020 season (37% of a normal season) to historical averages but what are those who don’t use traditional projections systems? Or read or listen to people who don’t care for them in order to create a compelling narrative? It’s time to anchor some historical context around those narratives.

All analyses “should” start with at least some set of weights. For those who start with one, they’ll have an advantage. For those who guess the correct one, they’ll have a huge edge. The issue with setting weights is how to create a short season one that fills all the narratives.

First, most of the players were rushed to get game-ready and were not 100% ready when the season started. So the beginning of the season stats could be used to replicate this ramping up period, but the weather was still warm at the season’s end increasing offensive output. Maybe the entire first month should be ignored with everything in flux. Possibly the last two because that were the 2020 regular season months. played. So, I decided to look into all the possible options including a horrible first attempt.
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The 2020 MLB regular season has now concluded. In most years, this introductory sentence would be a simple fact. One ordinarily would not pay much attention to such an evident truth. However, in 2020, the consequence of baseball completing the year without a major full stop is a sparkling achievement.

Yes, the Marlins and Cardinals did not play for the course of about a week due to team COVID infections. Yes, there were more make-up doubleheaders played in 2020 than in any season during my lifetime. Yes, there were a few teams that made the playoffs despite a losing record. Yes, the league-wide batting average of .245 was the 6^th lowest full-season mark since 1900.

But baseball made it through, and now embarks on their expanded playoffs journey.

As such, it is now time to check back on how we fared in the fantasy season. For me personally, it was a rather positive one. I did not finish below 6^th place in any league that I played in this year. Amazingly, I was crowned as the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion, my very first expert league title. 2020 showed that the ATC projections work well, even in smaller sample sizes.

In today’s article, I will recap my 2020 bold predictions. To remind the reader, the goal at the outset was to predict 70^th to 90^th percentile events (10% to 30% likely occurrences). I don’t expect to get the majority of these correct. If I wanted to achieve a higher success rate, I would simply have predicted that Jacob deGrom would win the Cy Young award, and the like.

Now let’s recap! Read the rest of this entry »

This month last year, Connor Kurcon of Six Man Rotation set out to quantify the location aspect of command (or “LRP”). By establishing an accounting system that credited and debited pitchers for changes in ball-strike counts based on the attack zone of and hitter’s disposition (take? swing? ball in play?) for every pitch, he effectively created an alternative to Pitch Value (PVal) that rewards optimal movement through ball-strike counts but with much more pitcher and hitter context.

His findings are as you’d expect: Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander lead the pack, with Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw not far behind. Other budding aces like Jack Flaherty and Mike Clevinger pepper the list, and some pleasant surprises (such as Brendan McKay, Caleb Smith, and, for those still thirsting, Jake Odorizzi) are scattered throughout as well. Out of the bullpen, newly anointed relief ace Nick Anderson led the pack followed by the underrated Emilio Pagán, breakout reliever Giovanny Gallegos, and others.

Near the end of his post, Kurcon includes a subhead dedicated to Kyle Hendricks where he highlights how Hendricks, widely respected as a command artist, fares lukewarmly by measure of LRP. He then reminds us “LRP doesn’t paint the full picture of command.” True that.

Fortunately, Kurcon has left the door open for me to tie up loose ends with find Gs I’ve been meaning to write up for a couple of months now. Never fear, Hendricks is the command artist we know and love — it’s just that he relies heavily on incurring contact in optimal pitch locations. It is a needle very few pitchers can thread, but Hendricks does it masterfully.

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To say the least, the 2020 fantasy baseball season will go down as a one-of-kind. A late start led to a 60 game sprint. Seven-inning double-headers. Weeks of rescheduled games because of COVID-19 positive tests. The National League DH. Twenty-eight-man rosters in September. Each of these on its own would fill the headlines. With the changes coming all at once, they felt overwhelming. I’m hoping to calm everyone if any and hopefully not all of the changes happen again. Here is some advice on how to handle the changes.

The help divided up into league setting and individual manager focus. While I inserted plenty of my own advice, I wanted to make sure as many people as possible contributed so Tweeted out and asked during my chat for input.
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