Projection Busting Research Updated (2021 Edition)

by
October 20, 2020

I’ve been grinding my way through the various inputs I use in addition to projection to make my team-building decisions. It’s time for the final few lists.

For reference, here are the factors I’ve already published.

Also, I’m not going to take into account two minor league related factors: Voit/Muncy List (2020 list) and bumping up hitting prospect projections. Without a minor league season, the Voit/Muncy list can’t be generated.

As for bumping up hitting prospects, I’m going to pass this year. I know there will be prospect rankings but I’ll not give two-shits about them. Even with some reports from the alternate sites and fall instructs, the information will be spotty at best.

Hitters and Pitch Types (link)

I found three hitter types whose projections are off because of how they handle certain pitches in the strike zone. Two hitter groups that struggle are those who can’t hit slow fastballs down the middle of the plate and those who can’t recognize a changeup. The one group who shows some positive projection are hitters who don’t miss when they swing at non-fastballs.

Slow Fastball Swinging-Strike Rate
Name Slow FB SwStr%
Travis Demeritte 46.2%
Anthony Alford 38.5%
Meibrys Viloria 33.3%
Mike Freeman 29.4%
Kyle Garlick 25.0%
D.J. Stewart 23.9%
Derek Dietrich 23.3%
Randy Arozarena 22.7%
Jo Adell 22.4%
Luis Robert 22.1%
Mike Zunino 22.0%
Andrew Velazquez 22.0%
Eddy Alvarez 21.4%
Rafael Devers 21.3%
Joseph Odom 21.1%
Adeiny Hechavarria 20.7%
Francisco Mejia 20.0%
Tim Lopes 19.6%
Bobby Dalbec 19.0%
Beau Taylor 18.8%
Pablo Sandoval 18.5%
Mike Brosseau 18.4%
Keston Hiura 18.3%
Cedric Mullins II 18.1%
Josh Donaldson 17.6%
Tomas Nido 17.6%
Matt Chapman 17.4%
Chris Taylor 17.1%
Matt Thaiss 16.7%
Mark Payton 16.7%
Mallex Smith 16.0%
Stephen Piscotty 15.9%
Johan Camargo 15.7%
Omar Narvaez 15.6%
Shohei Ohtani 15.4%
C.J. Cron 15.4%
Steven Souza Jr. 15.4%
Tyrone Taylor 15.0%
Changeup Swinging-Strike Rate Swinging-Strike Rate
Name Change SwStr%
Anthony Alford 100.0%
Luis Alexander Basabe 75.0%
Sherten Apostel 66.7%
Chris Owings 66.7%
Mike Zunino 66.7%
Beau Taylor 66.7%
Brent Rooker 66.7%
Yan Gomes 60.0%
Kyle Farmer 50.0%
Jon Jay 50.0%
Kevin Plawecki 50.0%
John Ryan Murphy 50.0%
Luis Robert 50.0%
Delino DeShields 50.0%
Franmil Reyes 45.2%
Matt Beaty 44.4%
Miguel Sano 43.5%
Myles Straw 42.9%
Jose Garcia 42.9%
Pavin Smith 42.9%
Tyler O’Neill 40.0%
Jack Mayfield 40.0%
Jeff Mathis 40.0%
Byron Buxton 40.0%
Jorge Soler 40.0%
Christin Stewart 39.1%
Andy Young 38.5%
Jake Cave 37.5%
Austin Slater 36.4%
Michael A. Taylor 35.3%
Chris Taylor 34.4%
Niko Goodrum 34.4%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 34.2%
Harold Castro 33.3%
Nicholas Castellanos 33.3%
Greg Allen 33.3%
Yairo Munoz 33.3%
Jay Bruce 33.3%
Jonathan Davis 33.3%
Dustin Garneau 33.3%
Ryan O’Hearn 33.3%
Roberto Perez 33.3%
Albert Almora Jr. 33.3%
Billy Hamilton 33.3%
Guillermo Heredia 33.3%
Jordan Luplow 33.3%
Nick Heath 33.3%
Michael Chavis 32.4%
Evan White 32.0%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 32.0%
Matt Carpenter 31.8%
Aaron Judge 31.6%
Darin Ruf 러프 31.6%
Brandon Lowe 31.5%
Kyle Lewis 30.8%
Adalberto Mondesi 30.6%
Marcus Semien 30.3%
Josh Donaldson 30.0%
Mitch Moreland 30.0%
Non-Fastball Swinging-Strike Rate
Name Non-Fastball SwStr%
Christian Arroyo 0.0%
Magneuris Sierra 0.0%
Andrew Stevenson 0.0%
Reese McGuire 0.0%
Jonah Heim 0.0%
Taylor Jones 0.0%
Nicky Delmonico 0.0%
Jesus Sanchez 0.0%
Jordy Mercer 0.0%
Yolmer Sanchez 0.0%
Sergio Alcantara 0.0%
Erick Mejia 0.0%
Michael Brantley 1.1%
Nico Hoerner 1.2%
Jon Berti 1.4%
Adam Engel 2.2%
Ehire Adrianza 2.2%
Tim Locastro 2.2%
Mookie Betts 2.3%
Adam Eaton 2.4%
Stephen Vogt 2.5%
Nick Markakis 2.7%
Eric Sogard 2.7%
Isaac Paredes 2.7%
Chad Pinder 2.9%
Cedric Mullins II 3.0%
Vimael Machin 3.0%
Brandon Drury 3.1%
Nick Madrigal 3.2%
Ben Gamel 3.4%
Luis Urias 3.5%
Will Smith 3.5%
Eddy Alvarez 3.6%
Anthony Rizzo 3.6%
Steven Duggar 3.7%
Yandy Diaz 3.8%
Rangel Ravelo 3.8%
Joey Wendle 4.0%
Joseph Odom 4.0%
Tommy La Stella 4.1%
DJ LeMahieu 4.1%
Max Kepler 4.2%
Scott Heineman 4.2%
Tyrone Taylor 4.2%
David Fletcher 4.2%
Jason Kipnis 4.2%
Mike Freeman 4.3%
Lewin Diaz 4.3%
Wyatt Mathisen 4.3%
Luis Arraez 4.3%
Enrique Hernandez 4.4%
Jonathan Arauz 4.4%
Logan Morrison 4.5%
Austin Hays 4.5%
Robinson Cano 4.5%
Austin Nola 4.5%
Harrison Bader 4.8%
Taylor Ward 4.8%
Evan Longoria 4.8%
Sandy Leon 5.0%
Ildemaro Vargas 5.0%

Limited Arsenals (link)

Pitchers who have a more diverse arsenal have historically beaten their projections than those pitchers with just one or two pitches. From the article, there are four pitcher groups (Note: four-seam, two-seam, and sinkers are combined into one fastball group).

Two Pitches at 85% or More, Greater Than 60% Fastball
Name IP FB% CH% CU% CT% SL% Top 2 % Pitches > 12%
Tanner Houck 17.0 62% 2% 0% 0% 35% 98% 2
Tyler Glasnow 57.1 61% 5% 35% 0% 0% 95% 2
Jose Urena 23.1 61% 7% 0% 0% 32% 93% 2
Jorge Lopez 39.0 60% 9% 31% 0% 0% 91% 2
Lance Lynn 84.0 67% 1% 8% 22% 2% 89% 2
Cristian Javier 54.1 63% 7% 4% 0% 26% 89% 2
Frankie Montas 53.0 63% 13% 0% 0% 24% 87% 3
Spencer Turnbull 56.2 67% 9% 4% 0% 20% 87% 2
J.A. Happ 49.1 67% 13% 0% 0% 20% 87% 3
Two Pitches at 85% or More, Less Than 60% Fastball
Name IP FB% CH% CU% CT% SL% Top 2 % Pitches > 12%
Dinelson Lamet 69 47% 0% 0% 0% 53% 100% 2
Brad Keller 54 59% 3% 0% 0% 38% 97% 2
Rich Hill 38 47% 0% 49% 4% 0% 96% 2
Jakob Junis 25 49% 4% 0% 0% 47% 96% 2
Brady Singer 64 58% 5% 0% 0% 37% 95% 2
Elieser Hernandez 25 59% 6% 0% 0% 35% 94% 2
Kevin Gausman 59 51% 42% 0% 0% 6% 93% 2
Garrett Richards 51 55% 0% 7% 0% 38% 93% 2
Patrick Corbin 65 52% 6% 2% 0% 40% 92% 2
Framber Valdez 70 58% 8% 34% 0% 0% 92% 2
Huascar Ynoa 21 44% 9% 0% 0% 47% 91% 2
Jaime Barria 32 43% 11% 0% 0% 46% 89% 2
Chris Paddack 59 58% 31% 7% 4% 0% 89% 2
Charlie Morton 38 56% 2% 33% 0% 9% 89% 2
Michael Pineda 26 50% 11% 0% 0% 38% 89% 2
Kyle Cody 22 50% 12% 0% 0% 37% 88% 3
Nate Pearson 18 51% 6% 6% 0% 36% 87% 2
Johan Oviedo 24 56% 4% 10% 0% 30% 86% 2
65% to 70% are 2 pitches
Touki Toussaint 24 41% 20% 29% 0% 10% 70% 3
Patrick Sandoval 36 45% 23% 7% 0% 25% 70% 3
Marco Gonzales 69 45% 14% 16% 24% 0% 70% 4
Merrill Kelly 켈리 31 47% 12% 22% 19% 0% 69% 4
Chris Mazza 30 39% 3% 0% 30% 28% 69% 3
Kenta Maeda 66 26% 29% 3% 2% 40% 69% 3
Zack Greinke 67 42% 26% 15% 0% 16% 69% 4
Masahiro Tanaka 48 31% 25% 6% 1% 37% 69% 3
Cody Ponce 17 44% 8% 24% 25% 0% 68% 3
Anibal Sanchez 53 33% 36% 6% 25% 1% 68% 3
Tanner Roark 47 53% 13% 15% 4% 15% 68% 4
Corbin Burnes 59 39% 11% 8% 29% 13% 68% 3
Dylan Bundy 65 42% 21% 11% 0% 26% 68% 3
Ross Stripling 49 44% 17% 24% 0% 15% 68% 4
Brett Anderson 47 45% 23% 10% 11% 12% 68% 2
Trevor Bauer 73 48% 0% 16% 20% 17% 67% 4
Brandon Bielak 32 49% 17% 8% 14% 10% 67% 3
Ryan Castellani 43 49% 16% 17% 0% 17% 67% 4
Carlos Carrasco 68 39% 27% 12% 0% 21% 66% 3
Ryan Yarbrough 55 23% 30% 0% 36% 11% 66% 3
Zach Plesac 55 38% 25% 9% 0% 28% 65% 3
Martin Perez 62 33% 26% 9% 32% 0% 65% 3
<65% are Two Pitches
Name IP FB% CH% CU% CT% SL% Top 2 % Pitches > 12%
Dallas Keuchel 63.1 35% 28% 0% 30% 7% 65% 3
Max Scherzer 67.1 46% 16% 9% 10% 19% 65% 3
Trevor Cahill 25 36% 29% 23% 0% 12% 65% 4
Chase Anderson 33.2 40% 23% 16% 20% 0% 64% 4
Shane Bieber 77.1 37% 8% 26% 16% 12% 64% 3
Joe Musgrove 39.2 39% 11% 20% 6% 24% 63% 3
Griffin Canning 56.1 40% 16% 23% 0% 21% 63% 4
Hyun-Jin Ryu 67 35% 28% 13% 24% 0% 63% 4
Jeff Samardzija 16.2 37% 20% 0% 17% 26% 62% 4
Wade LeBlanc 22.1 25% 34% 13% 28% 0% 62% 4
Zac Gallen 72 39% 19% 20% 0% 22% 61% 4
Aaron Civale 74 31% 9% 21% 29% 10% 60% 3
Nathan Eovaldi 48.1 38% 14% 17% 22% 9% 59% 4
Kyle Freeland 70.2 33% 24% 0% 24% 19% 57% 4
Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 45.1 36% 19% 9% 19% 17% 55% 4

Pull Hitters (link)

These are left-handed batters who pull the ball more than 45% of the time and projections don’t take the production drop from being shifted into account.

Left-Handed Pull Hitters
Name PA Pull%
Kole Calhoun 228 59.0%
D.J. Stewart 112 55.8%
Matt Carpenter 169 55.4%
Jace Peterson 61 53.8%
Brett Phillips 59 52.8%
Stephen Vogt 81 52.7%
Brandon Crawford 193 52.0%
Jay Bruce 103 51.4%
Kyle Tucker 228 50.6%
Ji-Man Choi 145 50.6%
Andres Gimenez 132 50.5%
J.T. Riddle 69 50.0%
Brian Goodwin 164 50.0%
Jason Heyward 181 50.0%
Kyle Schwarber 224 49.6%
Sam Hilliard 114 49.2%
Mike Ford 84 49.2%
Joey Gallo 226 49.1%
Chance Sisco 121 49.1%
Dwight Smith Jr. 72 48.9%
Anthony Rizzo 243 47.9%
Matt Olson 245 47.4%
Rougned Odor 148 47.3%
Cavan Biggio 265 47.2%
Joc Pederson 138 47.1%
Jarrod Dyson 66 47.1%
Ender Inciarte 131 46.8%
Josh VanMeter 79 46.8%
Michael Perez 93 46.6%
Tommy La Stella 228 46.5%
Ronald Guzman 86 46.3%
Jesse Winker 183 46.2%
Joey Votto 223 46.2%
Edwin Rios 83 45.8%
Shohei Ohtani 175 45.6%
Cody Bellinger 243 45.6%
Max Muncy 248 45.5%
Jason Kipnis 135 45.3%
Brandon Lowe 224 45.3%

Hitters Running Faster (link)

Batters who see a bump in their sprint speed outperform their projections and those who have a large drop underperform them.

Hitters Who Gained Sprint Speed
Name 2019 Sprint Speed 2020 Sprint Speed Difference
Jesus Aguilar 23.5 24.6 1.1
J.D. Davis 26.3 27.2 0.9
Joe Panik 25.5 26.4 0.9
Daniel Murphy 25.7 26.5 0.8
Edwin Encarnacion 24.8 25.6 0.8
Andrew Velazquez 27.5 28.3 0.8
Beau Taylor 25.9 26.7 0.8
Edwin Rios 25.7 26.5 0.8
Brett Phillips 28.0 28.8 0.8
Jean Segura 27.5 28.3 0.8
Josh Naylor 26.1 26.9 0.8
Kyle Lewis 27.1 27.9 0.8
Jesse Winker 25.6 26.4 0.8
Donovan Solano 25.9 26.6 0.7
Jason Kipnis 26.8 27.5 0.7
Jon Jay 24.8 25.5 0.7
Bradley Zimmer 27.6 28.3 0.7
Jared Walsh 25.9 26.5 0.6
Shohei Ohtani 28.2 28.8 0.6
Josh Phegley 25.8 26.4 0.6
Roberto Perez 24.3 24.9 0.6
Mauricio Dubon 27.3 27.9 0.6
Gregory Polanco 26.8 27.4 0.6
Rowdy Tellez 24.8 25.3 0.5
Matt Kemp 25.4 25.9 0.5
Hitters Who Lost Sprint Speed
Name 2019 Sprint Speed 2020 Sprint Speed Difference
Howie Kendrick 25.3 24.8 -0.5
Christian Arroyo 27.7 27.2 -0.5
Josh Bell 26.7 26.2 -0.5
Sean Murphy 26.0 25.5 -0.5
Jorge Soler 27.0 26.5 -0.5
Josh Reddick 26.7 26.2 -0.5
Ryan McMahon 26.4 25.9 -0.5
Braden Bishop 29.6 29.1 -0.5
Brandon Dixon 28.5 28.0 -0.5
Andrew Benintendi 27.1 26.6 -0.5
Joey Wendle 28.6 28.1 -0.5
Dwight Smith Jr. 26.1 25.6 -0.5
Adalberto Mondesi 29.9 29.4 -0.5
Erik Kratz 24.3 23.8 -0.5
Albert Pujols 22.5 22.0 -0.5
Eric Sogard 26.2 25.7 -0.5
Marcell Ozuna 27.4 26.9 -0.5
Kevin Plawecki 26.0 25.5 -0.5
Jeimer Candelario 27.3 26.8 -0.5
Tommy Pham 28.7 28.2 -0.5
Renato Nunez 27.1 26.6 -0.5
Anthony Rizzo 25.3 24.8 -0.5
Brock Holt 26.1 25.6 -0.5
J.T. Realmuto 28.7 28.2 -0.5
Corey Dickerson 27.6 27.1 -0.5
Brandon Nimmo 28.5 28.0 -0.5
Matt Beaty 27.4 26.9 -0.5
Amed Rosario 29.2 28.7 -0.5
D.J. Stewart 27.0 26.5 -0.5
Garrett Hampson 30.1 29.6 -0.5
Tommy Edman 29.4 28.9 -0.5
Cody Bellinger 28.8 28.3 -0.5
J.T. Riddle 27.4 26.8 -0.6
Yasmani Grandal 24.2 23.6 -0.6
Joey Gallo 27.7 27.1 -0.6
Austin Slater 28.4 27.8 -0.6
Christian Yelich 28.7 28.1 -0.6
Mallex Smith 29.4 28.8 -0.6
Asdrubal Cabrera 25.4 24.8 -0.6
Adeiny Hechavarria 27.2 26.6 -0.6
Kris Bryant 28.2 27.6 -0.6
Didi Gregorius 27.7 27.1 -0.6
Christin Stewart 26.9 26.3 -0.6
Brian Anderson 27.0 26.4 -0.6
Matt Chapman 28.1 27.5 -0.6
Cavan Biggio 28.3 27.7 -0.6
Carlos Correa 27.6 27.0 -0.6
Yandy Diaz 26.5 25.9 -0.6
Ryan Braun 26.6 26.0 -0.6
Rafael Devers 27.1 26.5 -0.6
Jose Ramirez 27.8 27.2 -0.6
Kyle Farmer 27.3 26.7 -0.6
Starling Marte 29.0 28.4 -0.6
Jon Berti 29.8 29.2 -0.6
Elias Diaz 26.1 25.5 -0.6
Gary Sanchez 25.5 24.9 -0.6
Justin Smoak 23.5 22.9 -0.6
Rio Ruiz 25.8 25.2 -0.6
Yan Gomes 26.6 26.0 -0.6
Ramon Laureano 28.5 27.9 -0.6
Alex Avila 24.6 24.0 -0.6
Austin Romine 25.8 25.1 -0.7
Michael Conforto 27.5 26.8 -0.7
Brandon Drury 26.8 26.1 -0.7
Max Muncy 27.7 27.0 -0.7
Ender Inciarte 26.8 26.1 -0.7
Ryan O’Hearn 27.2 26.5 -0.7
Ryan McBroom 27.2 26.5 -0.7
Martin Maldonado 24.2 23.5 -0.7
Nomar Mazara 26.5 25.8 -0.7
Ty France 25.9 25.2 -0.7
DJ LeMahieu 26.7 26.0 -0.7
Adam Duvall 28.7 28.0 -0.7
Christian Vazquez 25.7 25.0 -0.7
Austin Barnes 27.2 26.5 -0.7
Jorge Alfaro 28.8 28.1 -0.7
Bo Bichette 28.4 27.7 -0.7
Billy Hamilton 29.5 28.8 -0.7
Bubba Starling 28.7 28.0 -0.7
Dylan Moore 28.4 27.7 -0.7
Ian Happ 27.8 27.1 -0.7
Ronald Torreyes 27.2 26.5 -0.7
Austin Nola 27.1 26.4 -0.7
Yuli Gurriel 27.6 26.9 -0.7
Shin-Soo Choo 26.6 25.9 -0.7
Travis Shaw 25.6 24.9 -0.7
Javier Baez 28.6 27.9 -0.7
Austin Hays 28.6 27.9 -0.7
Neil Walker 25.6 24.9 -0.7
Alex Bregman 27.4 26.6 -0.8
Maikel Franco 25.4 24.6 -0.8
Mike Tauchman 27.9 27.1 -0.8
Starlin Castro 26.9 26.1 -0.8
Brett Gardner 28.9 28.1 -0.8
Ryon Healy 25.9 25.1 -0.8
J.P. Crawford 27.4 26.6 -0.8
Jonathan Villar 27.9 27.1 -0.8
Matt Adams 25.9 25.1 -0.8
Luke Voit 25.8 25.0 -0.8
Avisail Garcia 28.8 28.0 -0.8
Josh Donaldson 25.8 25.0 -0.8
Eric Thames 테임즈 26.7 25.9 -0.8
Teoscar Hernandez 29.1 28.3 -0.8
Austin Riley 27.8 27.0 -0.8
Josh Rojas 28.1 27.3 -0.8
Manuel Margot 29.0 28.2 -0.8
Jack Mayfield 26.6 25.8 -0.8
Tyler Wade 29.1 28.3 -0.8
Andrew Knizner 26.2 25.4 -0.8
Mike Moustakas 25.7 24.9 -0.8
Jose Trevino 24.8 24.0 -0.8
J.D. Martinez 26.7 25.9 -0.8
Hunter Pence 28.6 27.8 -0.8
Magneuris Sierra 29.8 29.0 -0.8
Brandon Lowe 27.7 26.9 -0.8
Shed Long 27.6 26.8 -0.8
Aristides Aquino 28.7 27.9 -0.8
Anthony Santander 27.5 26.7 -0.8
Dawel Lugo 27.5 26.7 -0.8
Nicky Lopez 28.5 27.7 -0.8
Mitch Garver 26.3 25.5 -0.8
Willie Calhoun 26.4 25.5 -0.9
Mitch Moreland 25.0 24.1 -0.9
Travis d’Arnaud 26.9 26.0 -0.9
Danny Santana 27.7 26.8 -0.9
Tomas Nido 25.7 24.8 -0.9
Danny Mendick 26.9 26.0 -0.9
Delino DeShields 29.5 28.6 -0.9
Aledmys Diaz 28.1 27.2 -0.9
Jordan Luplow 28.3 27.4 -0.9
Meibrys Viloria 24.6 23.7 -0.9
Michael A. Taylor 29.1 28.2 -0.9
Chris Davis 24.8 23.9 -0.9
Austin Hedges 24.6 23.7 -0.9
Colin Moran 25.3 24.3 -1.0
Justin Turner 26.1 25.1 -1.0
Mike Brosseau 28.3 27.3 -1.0
Adam Haseley 27.8 26.8 -1.0
Yu-Cheng Chang 28.4 27.4 -1.0
Lewis Brinson 29.5 28.5 -1.0
Kevin Newman 28.5 27.5 -1.0
Jacob Stallings 24.5 23.5 -1.0
Rougned Odor 28.0 27.0 -1.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 26.3 25.3 -1.0
Victor Reyes 28.9 27.9 -1.0
Jake Marisnick 29.2 28.2 -1.0
Niko Goodrum 29.0 28.0 -1.0
Isan Diaz 26.8 25.8 -1.0
Ji-Man Choi 25.3 24.3 -1.0
Francisco Cervelli 25.2 24.2 -1.0
Ryan Lavarnway 24.6 23.6 -1.0
Nolan Arenado 25.9 24.8 -1.1
Dexter Fowler 27.7 26.6 -1.1
Dustin Garneau 26.7 25.6 -1.1
Curt Casali 25.2 24.1 -1.1
Kurt Suzuki 25.2 24.1 -1.1
Yolmer Sanchez 27.7 26.6 -1.1
John Ryan Murphy 26.7 25.6 -1.1
Cameron Maybin 28.7 27.6 -1.1
Tyler Flowers 25.2 24.1 -1.1
Todd Frazier 25.3 24.2 -1.1
Derek Fisher 29.0 27.9 -1.1
Gavin Lux 28.8 27.7 -1.1
Kyle Seager 26.5 25.4 -1.1
Paul DeJong 27.6 26.5 -1.1
Kolten Wong 27.6 26.5 -1.1
Juan Soto 27.3 26.1 -1.2
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 27.5 26.3 -1.2
Mike Zunino 26.3 25.1 -1.2
Jake Noll 28.1 26.9 -1.2
C.J. Cron 26.1 24.9 -1.2
JaCoby Jones 28.3 27.0 -1.3
Ozzie Albies 28.6 27.3 -1.3
Victor Robles 29.3 28.0 -1.3
Erik Gonzalez 28.6 27.3 -1.3
David Dahl 28.1 26.8 -1.3
Lane Thomas 29.6 28.3 -1.3
Franchy Cordero 28.8 27.5 -1.3
LaMonte Wade Jr. 28.1 26.8 -1.3
Luis Guillorme 26.7 25.4 -1.3
Oscar Mercado 29.5 28.1 -1.4
Aaron Judge 28.2 26.8 -1.4
Garrett Cooper 27.2 25.8 -1.4
Mason Williams 26.8 25.4 -1.4
Giancarlo Stanton 27.1 25.7 -1.4
Reese McGuire 26.3 24.9 -1.4
Andrew McCutchen 28.8 27.4 -1.4
Ben Gamel 28.2 26.7 -1.5
Myles Straw 30.1 28.6 -1.5
Giovanny Urshela 26.3 24.8 -1.5
Franklin Barreto 28.8 27.3 -1.5
Jarrod Dyson 28.4 26.9 -1.5
Jace Peterson 28.0 26.5 -1.5
Francisco Mejia 27.2 25.7 -1.5
Daniel Robertson 27.0 25.5 -1.5
Kevan Smith 26.2 24.7 -1.5
Jay Bruce 26.7 25.1 -1.6
Albert Almora Jr. 28.4 26.8 -1.6
Abraham Toro 28.8 27.2 -1.6
Miguel Andujar 28.1 26.5 -1.6
Lorenzo Cain 27.8 26.1 -1.7
Austin Meadows 28.1 26.3 -1.8
Robinson Chirinos 25.1 23.3 -1.8
Rangel Ravelo 26.5 24.6 -1.9
Harold Castro 27.2 25.2 -2.0
Travis Demeritte 28.6 26.6 -2.0
Thairo Estrada 28.0 25.7 -2.3
Logan Morrison 25.5 22.3 -3.2





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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