2021 Injury Risks for Starters & Hitters
And the 2021 draft prep data dumps continue. Today, the injury chances for hitters and starters take center stage. I’ve been trying to wrap my head around injuries since I’ve started writing about baseball. The reason it’s a difficult subject to nail down is that the information is spotty.
Also, if a player checks all the factors to head to the IL (Injured List), he could have that one magical season (i.e Stephen Strasburg in 2019) when he never gets hurt. Adding to the mess is that the league moved from the 15-day IL to the 10-day IL, back to the 15-day IL (for only pitchers), and then just started making up rules for 2020. Through it all, the following risk assessments cut through a lot of the narratives and are solid going into next season.
Starting Pitchers
During the extended offseason, started reinvestigating my analysis of pitcher injury chances with a literature review, injury chances, and how injuries lead to increase aging. While age and fastball velocity are still factors, career IL days and arm injuries are most likely to point to future injuries and degraded performance. The simple thresholds were 120 career IL days and three or more arm injuries. Here is a list of the starters (min 10 IPin 2020) who meet both criteria (full list).
| Pitcher | Age | Avg FB Velo | Total IL Days | IL Days (last 2 seasons) | Total Arm Injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homer Bailey | 34 | 91.0 | 677 | 51 | 8 |
| Danny Duffy | 31 | 92.2 | 414 | 60 | 7 |
| Brett Anderson | 32 | 89.8 | 932 | 14 | 6 |
| Rich Hill | 40 | 87.7 | 682 | 133 | 6 |
| Johnny Cueto | 34 | 91.3 | 536 | 169 | 6 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 31 | 91.7 | 464 | 43 | 6 |
| Michael Pineda | 31 | 92.1 | 511 | 22 | 5 |
| Yu Darvish | 33 | 95.5 | 492 | 0 | 5 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 30 | 97.4 | 484 | 107 | 5 |
| Zack Wheeler | 30 | 96.9 | 460 | 14 | 5 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 33 | 93.6 | 432 | 88 | 5 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 36 | 89.6 | 427 | 12 | 5 |
| Martin Perez | 29 | 92.1 | 377 | 0 | 5 |
| Steven Matz | 29 | 94.5 | 258 | 27 | 5 |
| Garrett Richards | 32 | 95.2 | 653 | 175 | 4 |
| Adam Wainwright | 38 | 89.3 | 618 | 10 | 4 |
| Charlie Morton | 36 | 93.3 | 574 | 23 | 4 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 33 | 89.6 | 558 | 21 | 4 |
| Matt Harvey | 31 | 94.1 | 444 | 60 | 4 |
| Andrew Heaney | 29 | 91.5 | 419 | 86 | 4 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 26 | 93.8 | 402 | 199 | 4 |
| Carlos Rodon | 27 | 92.9 | 390 | 202 | 4 |
| Kendall Graveman | 29 | 94.8 | 370 | 217 | 4 |
| Ivan Nova | 33 | 92.2 | 342 | 43 | 4 |
| Cole Hamels | 36 | 88.2 | 243 | 96 | 4 |
| Sean Manaea | 28 | 90.4 | 230 | 160 | 4 |
| Vince Velasquez | 28 | 93.8 | 144 | 17 | 4 |
| Gerrit Cole | 29 | 96.7 | 143 | 0 | 4 |
| Taijuan Walker | 27 | 93.2 | 543 | 188 | 3 |
| Tyler Chatwood | 30 | 94.3 | 461 | 35 | 3 |
| Mike Minor | 32 | 90.6 | 397 | 0 | 3 |
| Drew Smyly | 31 | 93.8 | 394 | 54 | 3 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 34 | 89.5 | 343 | 120 | 3 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | 32 | 91.2 | 300 | 48 | 3 |
| Alex Wood | 29 | 91.2 | 241 | 93 | 3 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 32 | 91.6 | 227 | 31 | 3 |
| Tommy Milone | 33 | 86.1 | 163 | 17 | 3 |
| Carlos Martinez | 28 | 92.9 | 151 | 91 | 3 |
| Jake Arrieta | 34 | 92.1 | 151 | 60 | 3 |
Notes
- The one name that sticks out is Gerritt Cole. Back in 2016, Cole had several arm related injuries but he hasn’t had one for a few years (h/t to Derek Rhodes for the graphic).
- Yu Darvish is likely the next pitcher on the list to be drafted next season The 33-year-old has found a way to stay off the IL the past two seasons. Maybe he can keep it up.
- Carlos Carrasco, Charlie Morton, and Clayton Kershaw continue to go early in drafts and continue to keep getting hurt. At some point, fantasy managers need to start getting a discount on them.
- I’m likely to just stay away from the high-risk pitchers and focus more on those in the other two groups.
Hitters
It’s always been harder to know what injury will be the one that begins a hitter’s spiral downward. This past summer, I examined several factors and found that a hitter may start seeing a decline around 200 IL days. Once he hits 300 IL days, the injury-related decline accelerates. Knowing those thresholds, here are the 2020 hitters who have accumulated at IL days (full list).
Notes
- The list is basically a list of old players with the average age being 32.2 years old.
- While several hitters under-30 populate the list, the youngest is a complete shock to absolutely no one … Byron Buxton.
- In the early mock drafts, the hitter being taken first is Nelson Cruz (65 ADP) with the next two, Tommy Pham and Giancarlo Stanton going back-to-back just after pick 100.
- Many make this a complete do not draft list, but I don’t go that far with hitters. For me, the player must be easily replaceable. Take Travis d’Arnaund. In last year’s NFBC drafts, he was going on average at pick 246 after breaking out with the Rays the previous season (.792 OPS with 16 HR). At pick 250, why not take a chance on d’Araund who I had ranked as the 111th player based on a full catcher season of at-bats. Drafting him over 100 picks later was a no brainer.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
If Buxton is the youngest of the group, what gives with Franchy Cordero ?
Oops … missed that.
I’m not sure Carrasco “continues to get hurt.” He was 1 start behind the league leaders this year and was 22nd in total innings.
Last year he had cancer and still managed to throw 80 innings.
He threw 190+ innings in both of the 2 years prior to that, in an era when that’s pretty much all any pitcher throws. He was 8th in total innings across those 2 years.
In 2016, a freak injury where he got hit by a batted ball held him to 146 innings.
I just don’t think it really makes a lot of sense to go with that narrative.
It seems there is a generality that doesn’t necessarily apply to every player as long as you can find the evidence that sways you to believe ‘insert your player’ is not going to experience the full amount of drag these thresholds suggest. It makes going through players’ records an important aspect if you want to find a gem among the turds.
I’m not saying Carrasco is going to be the one guy to beat Father Time. I’m not even saying he’s not going to get hurt this year. He might. In fact, he’s probably more likely than even some of the guys on this same list.
But Jeff’s depiction that he “continues to get hurt” is just objectively, factually incorrect. He’s had two injuries in the past 5 years. One cost him a quarter of a season and the other was cancer.
I’m surprised Judge is not on the list.
Is there a discount for hitters that missed the entire year for an injury…Like Salvador Perez’s TJ surgery? Or any fluke nonleg related injuries?
Because, in Perez’s case, I don’t think sitting out for a full year for an arm injury ended up hurting his hitting. I guess this is a case where the injury doesn’t necessarily hurt a hitter’s ability to keep his power in the swing or general swing mechanics. Do you think it makes sense to account for the type of injuries that make up the 200 IL and upwards?
Another thing I am wondering about is undisclosed injuries a player plays through could also be an area of wear and tear that goes unaccounted for in this discussion, but I’d be hard-pressed if I knew how to account for it.
Josh Donaldson.
Sure would love to see Michael Brantley in the Yankees lineup next year.
“Iām likely to just stay away from the high-risk pitchers and focus more on those in the other two groups.” What are the other two groups of pitchers that you are referring to?
It’s rather impressive that Albert Pujols has spent 20 years in MLB and has not racked up enough IL days to make this list. Then again, this is the guy who somehow returned from an oblique strain and a broken bone in less than 3 weeks on each occasion and only once has ever landed on the 60-day DL/IL.
Doesn’t Paxton meet the criteria? Three arm injuries: 16 elbow and 18 and 20 forearm plus a bevy of other injuries… lat, shoulder, finger, knee,… also had 20 IP in 2020. Thanks.