Ariel Cohen’s 2020 Bold Predictions – Recap

The 2020 MLB regular season has now concluded. In most years, this introductory sentence would be a simple fact. One ordinarily would not pay much attention to such an evident truth. However, in 2020, the consequence of baseball completing the year without a major full stop is a sparkling achievement.

Yes, the Marlins and Cardinals did not play for the course of about a week due to team COVID infections. Yes, there were more make-up doubleheaders played in 2020 than in any season during my lifetime. Yes, there were a few teams that made the playoffs despite a losing record. Yes, the league-wide batting average of .245 was the 6th lowest full-season mark since 1900.

But baseball made it through, and now embarks on their expanded playoffs journey.

As such, it is now time to check back on how we fared in the fantasy season. For me personally, it was a rather positive one. I did not finish below 6th place in any league that I played in this year. Amazingly, I was crowned as the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion, my very first expert league title. 2020 showed that the ATC projections work well, even in smaller sample sizes.

In today’s article, I will recap my 2020 bold predictions. To remind the reader, the goal at the outset was to predict 70th to 90th percentile events (10% to 30% likely occurrences). I don’t expect to get the majority of these correct. If I wanted to achieve a higher success rate, I would simply have predicted that Jacob deGrom would win the Cy Young award, and the like.

Now let’s recap!

#1: Eddie Rosario will return 2nd round fantasy value in standard 5×5 roto leagues.

No, this prediction did not come true. Eddie Rosario finished as the 60th best player on the ESPN player rater. He was the 53rd best player on the RazzBall player rater. In 15-team formats, that would equate to a solid 5th round finish.

Eddie Rosario 2019-2020 Statistics
Season G PA R RBI HR SB BA OBP
2019 137 590 91 109 32 3 .276 .300
2020 57 231 31 42 13 3 .257 .316
2020 Scaled 154 624 84 113 35 8 .257 .316

Looking at Rosario’s stats above, his run production (R+RBI) and power (HR) was on pace from last year’s levels. His batting average took a dive (due in part to an unlucky .248 BABIP), but his on-base skills grew. His strikeout rate stayed the same year on year (14.7% vs 14.6%), yet his walk rate grew tremendously (8.2% vs. 3.7%). He even started stealing bases at a stronger clip. All in all, I would characterize 2020 as a trend in the right direction for the Twins slugger.

Sure, I did not win this bold prediction outright, but the spirit of the call was successful. According to the NFBC ADP from May 1 to August 1, Rosario was the 100th player selected in drafts. He out earned his market value by a wide margin. Those who had Rosario on their fantasy baseball teams profited. A bold prediction does not have to be completely correct to be enormously useful.

0 for 1

#2: Victor Robles will lead the National League in stolen bases

This one missed badly. Robles was not even the high man on his own team. Trea Turner stole 12 bases, Juan Soto stole 6, and Robles … just 4.

This was a disappointing year all around for Victor Robles. He batted a mere .220, with just 3 HRs, 4 steals and 20 runs scored. His walk rate fell to just 4.8%, while his strikeout rate rose to 28%. His hard-hit contact rate lowered to almost 20%, and he produced only 2 barrels all season long.

The signs were pointing towards disappointment all year long as evidenced by where Victor batted in the Nationals lineup. Robles batted in the 6th slot or higher just 6 times in 2020.

Victor Robles 2020 Batting Slots
Batting Slot 1st 2nd – 6th 7th 8th 9th
Games 6 0 3 4 39
% Games 11.5% 0.0% 5.8% 7.7% 75.0%

As far as stolen bases, his attempt rate (defined here as stolen base attempts divided by singles + walks) went from 30.6% in 2019 to just 13.5% this season. Puzzling, but Robles simply did not run this year.

Robles is just 23 years old, and still has time to grow. After a 2.5 WAR season in 2019, Robles was a negative WAR player in this short season.

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#3: Tyler Rogers will lead the San Francisco Giants in saves

After a successful bold prediction of Taylor Rogers in 2019, I tried my luck with twin brother Tyler. Let’s take a look at the San Francisco Giants saves leaderboard for this season:

San Francisco Giants 2020 Reliever Statistics
Name SV W IP ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Trevor Gott 4 1 11.2 10.03 11.93 8.60 -1.1
Tyler Rogers 3 3 28 4.50 3.26 3.64 0.5
Sam Coonrod 3 0 14.2 9.82 4.76 5.22 -0.1
Tony Watson 2 1 18 2.50 4.36 4.12 0
Sam Selman 1 1 19.1 3.72 3.86 4.81 0.1
Minimum 1 Save

There were five Giants pitchers who earned saves in 2020. Unfortunately for my prediction, Rogers finished second, with the saves leader Trevor Gott earning one additional save.

Despite missing out on the saves lead, Rogers was arguably the Giants most reliable reliever on the team. Of the pitchers who earned saves in 2020, Rogers pitched the most innings, and accumulated the largest total WAR. Although his ERA was a tad higher than some others, FIP and xFIP have him ranked above the rest. According to those earned run average estimators, he was unlucky by almost a full run per 9 innings.

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#4: The White Sox will win the American League Central

Here is another prediction that came close, but which ultimately did not cross the finish line. The White Sox were in first place on September 22nd with just 5 days to go in the season … but they could not close it out. They eventually finished just one game out of the top slot in the American League Central.

The spirit of the prediction was in the right place, and indeed this one qualified as bold. Only 3 of the 22 FanGraphs staff writers predicted the White Sox to win the AL Central – a 14% mark (I was one of the three).

Chicago White Sox 2020 Offensive Team Statistics & MLB Ranks
Team HR R RBI AVG SLG wRC+ WAR
White Sox 96 306 294 0.261 0.453 114 13.8
MLB Rank 3 5 5 6 5 6 1

Above are a few of the White Sox team stats, along with their major league baseball rankings. The White Sox hit 96 homeruns, which was 3rd in baseball (only the Dodgers and Braves hit more). They scored the 5th most runs and accumulated the highest amount of offensive WAR of any team.

The Sox offense was highlighted this season by a legitimate AL Most Valuable Player contender. Jose Abreu this season hit .317 with 19 HR and 60 RBI.

The young core of players assembled on this roster will be around for a number of years to come, making the White Sox an instant threat once again in 2021.

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#5: CJ Cron will be a top 15 first baseman

Season ending knee surgery cut short CJ Cron’s 2020 season. His final game of the season was played on August 10.

To that point in 2020, below are the top 20 first baseman as ranked by WAR:

2020 First Baseman Statistics – Through August 10
No. Name PA HR R RBI wRC+ WAR
1 Yuli Gurriel 73 3 10 7 141 0.5
2 Asdrubal Cabrera 48 3 6 11 185 0.5
3 Anthony Rizzo 55 3 9 5 144 0.5
4 Freddie Freeman 70 3 15 12 139 0.5
5 Renato Nunez 63 5 13 11 153 0.4
6 Daniel Murphy 53 3 5 12 152 0.4
7 Jesus Aguilar 41 4 7 8 164 0.3
8 Matt Olson 74 5 10 13 114 0.3
9 Tommy La Stella 55 1 5 3 143 0.3
10 Carlos Santana 71 1 9 3 121 0.3
11 Todd Frazier 58 2 6 5 137 0.3
12 C.J. Cron 52 4 9 8 139 0.3
13 Colin Moran 59 5 10 7 120 0.2
14 Wilmer Flores 62 3 5 8 107 0.2
15 Paul Goldschmidt 21 1 4 1 135 0.2
16 Max Muncy 78 4 8 5 96 0.1
17 Rhys Hoskins 46 0 6 1 114 0.1
18 Christian Walker 62 0 8 10 90 0.1
19 Jose Abreu 75 3 9 9 89 0.1
20 Joey Votto 56 3 8 7 95 0

Cron was firmly entrenched within the top 15 at his position for the time that he spent on the field. We will never know how it might have played out if he was healthy all season long. Those who drafted CJ as their corner infielder, were happy that they did so for the first three weeks of the season. Unfortunately, injuries happen.

An unsuccessful prediction yet again, but one that I did not regret.

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 #6: Mitch Keller will be a top 45 starting pitcher, or will win Rookie of the Year

Although the NL Rookie of the Year award has not been revealed at the time of this article, I am fairly certain that Mitch Keller will not win it.

Just as with Cron, most of Keller’s season was missed due to injury. He appeared (and started) in only 5 games this season. Keller struck out 16 batters in the 21+ innings that he pitched, yielding just 7 earned runs – good for a 2.91 ERA. His control was horrendous, walking 18 batters in that span – a BB% rate of 21%. Yikes!

Expect a large variance in where he will be drafted in 2021 fantasy leagues. Keller could be a highly profitable investment depending upon where you can acquire him at your draft or auction next year.

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Certainly, this was not my best year for bold predictions. A few hopeful predictions were cut short by injury. A few just nearly missed the cut. Some, although failed predictions, still helped their fantasy owners. The Robles prediction was the clear money loser of the lot.

I hope that you all had a successful fantasy baseball season, and more importantly – I hope that you are all healthy and safe these days. We will have some more season wrap up in the weeks to come.





Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. His ATC Projections were ranked as the #1 most accurate projection system over the past three years (2019-2021). Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY.

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Owen Poindextermember
3 years ago

This is honestly one of the more successful bold prediction lists I’ve seen. You also seemed to actually believe your predictions, which is nice. I mostly stopped reading them when there were too many, “I could see this guy hitting 30 homers, so I’ll stretch that to 35 so we can call this bold.”