Archive for Projections

Inducing Weak Contact: Why Rex Hudler Got Me Thinking

As part of my preseason prep, I watched a Kris Bubic start from last season. During it, Rex Hudler, who is never short on opinions, brought up an interesting point. The more pitches each batter sees, the quicker the batter becomes with the pitcher repertoire, and the more likely the batter gets a hit. At first, I thought someone else was speaking, but no, the concept warranted further investigation. It’s the same theory behind the times-through-the-order penalty but the new effect could be felt depending on how many pitches a pitcher throws per hitter and depth of arsenal for the pitcher. That idea started me down a wormhole that led to many questions and one subpar answer, but there seems to be at least one nugget of wisdom in Rex Hudler’s head.

First off, with less than a month before the season starts, it’s not an ideal time to start a study that could take weeks to iron out. I barely have enough time to report news, velocity readings, and draft my own teams. The following “answers” are not set in stone and there are so many more questions to investigate. I could either shelve the ideas for months or just make a snippet available and let others run with the ideas while I grind through the fantasy season. I’m giving others the chance to refine the ideas before I come back to them.
Read the rest of this entry »


2021 Pod Projections: Zach Plesac

The Pod Projection process sharing continues! The 2021 forecasts are now available and include nearly 600 player lines. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

2021 Pod Projection Index
Ha-seong Kim
Trent Grisham

Read the rest of this entry »


2021 Pod Projections: Trent Grisham

Only two months after publishing the first one of this year, it’s time to get forecasting again with another 2021 Pod Projection! The 2021 forecasts are now available and include nearly 600 player lines. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

2021 Pod Projection Index
Ha-seong Kim

Today, I’ll analyze 2020 fantasy breakout, Padres outfielder Trent Grisham. A 2019 minor league performance spike between Double-A and Triple-A put him on fantasy owners’ radars, but his MLB debut that year was a mixed bag. Still, he entered the 2020 season as a trendy sleeper, and he certainly delivered on those hopes by going 10/10 over the short season and easily outearning his cost. Now, fantasy owners aren’t entirely sure how to value him. His NFBC ADP since Feb 1 sits around 71, but he’s gone as early as pick 46 and as late as 119. Clearly, there’s little agreement on his 2021 value, which isn’t too surprising given the limited MLB sample we have to evaluate. So let’s go metric by metric, discussing and projecting each, and ultimately calculating a full projection line, which will be compared to the rest of the forecasts shared on his player page.

Plate Appearances: 631

Grisham spent the majority of his time batting leadoff last season. When he didn’t hit leadoff, he typically batted second. So unless he endures an extended slump, expect him to hit at or near the top of the order. My projected PAs assume he hits leadoff, but I didn’t give him full credit considering the slight risk he takes a seat against some left-handers.

Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – Relief Pitcher Episode w/ Alex Fast

The Relief Pitcher Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Alex Fast

LABR Recap

  • Reactions to the LABR Mixed Auction League Draft

Strategy Section

  • Closers
    • How should we draft closers in 2021?
    • What closer tiers are the best return on investments?
    • Is it better to pick a named closer on a bad team or an uncertain closer on a good team?
  • Relievers
    • How should we set ourselves up for in-season play with relief pitchers?
    • How much are reliever ratios a consideration while drafting, as opposed to only considering the closers role (saves)?
    • When should you draft a valuable middle reliever over a named closer?

Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – Injury Episode w/ Stephania Bell

The Injury Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Stephania Bell of ESPN

Tommy John Surgery

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 898 – Thrift Shopping with The BAT X

3/1/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

THRIFTING OPTIONS

Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – Catcher & Utility-Only Episode w/ Ryan Bloomfield

The Catcher & Utility-Only Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ryan Bloomfield

Strategy Section

  • Catchers
    • How to account for Positional Scarcity with Catchers
    • Differences between 1-Catcher Leagues and 2-Catcher Leagues
    • Streaming Catchers
    • Is J.T. Realmuto worth his current draft price?
  • Utility-Only Players
    • Are Utility-Only players undervalued in drafts?
    • “Clogging the Utility Slot”
    • Utility-Only players to gain positional eligibility

Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – NFBC & Outfielder Episode w/ Matt Modica

The NFBC & Outfielder Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Matt Modica

Strategy Section

  • NFBC
    • Differences between NFBC (High stakes) vs. Home Leagues
    • Standalone Leagues vs. Leagues with an Overall Prize
    • NFBC Specific Rules
      • Limited Bench
      • No Injured List
      • No Trading
      • Semi-Weekly Lineups for Hitters
    • Are Multi-Position Eligible players more valuable?
    • Pitching is greatly pushed up in NFBC leagues
      • Is it warranted?
      • Should you follow the crowd, or alter your strategy to zag?
      • Should a super elite pitcher (deGrom/Cole) be taken #1 overall?
    • NFBC Draft Planning
    • KDS

Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – Auction Strategy Episode w/ Derek VanRiper

The Auction Strategy Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Derek VanRiper

Strategy Section

  • Auction Strategy
    • How Snake Drafts & Auctions differ in preparation.
    • Constructing Auction Values
      • Should you strictly hold to values?
      • What to use as a Hitter/Pitcher % split?
    • Generating Market Values
    • Nomination Strategies
      • General – It has to have a purpose.
      • Should you nominate players you want to buy, or players that you believe are overvalued?
      • The Economic Box
    • Bidding
      • Starting Bids
      • Jump Bids
      • Price Enforcing
      • The ‘9’s
    • Draft Inflation

Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – Starting Pitcher Episode (Part II) w/ Nick Pollack

The Starting Pitcher Episode (Part II) of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

Strategy Section

  • Simple analytics vs. advanced analytics.
  • Offseason information – what is noise, what is real?
  • Blind spots of projections for pitchers.
  • 2021 Season
    • 6-man roations
    • Starting pitcher inning limits
    • The Tampa Bay Rays
    • What if the season is delayed?
    • Ramp-up from 2020 short season

Starting Pitcher Strategy

  • General strategy
  • Pitchers that we would more likely roster in auctions vs. snake drafts (& vice versa).

Read the rest of this entry »