A while back on Twitter, Razzball’s Rudy Gamble made the following comment in a discussion of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his high groundball rate.

trying to think of any plus power guys that never figured out how to reduce a ton of GBs.

maikel franco is the only one that comes to mind with hosmer a possible second

— Rudy Gamble (@rudygamble) March 1, 2021

Vlad’s career groundball rate in just 900 PA is 50.5% which would rank as the 5th highest of 75 hitters. Over the same sample, his 118.9 mph Max Exit Velocity is the highest. It’s like he’s been blasting holes in the infield. So coming back to Rudy’s comment, will a power hitter, like Vlad, eventually get the ball in the air. While the answer is some, it’s likely not enough to make a difference.
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The Returnee Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jeff Erickson

Strategy Section

• Returning players to active lineups
  • When to return struggling hitters
    • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • When to return struggling pitchers
    • Luis Castillo
  • When to return recovered injured players
  • When to insert prospects
    • Jarred Kelenic
    • Bobby Dalbec
    • Jo Adell
• How to determine when a “hot” waiver wire player is worth a pickup

Cincinnati Reds

• Closer situation
• Nick Castellanos – Where does he rank ROS among outfielders?
• Is Tyler Mahle for real?

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If I were to look into the rear-view mirror while riding in the back seat of an Uber and ask the driver, “Could you tell me the expected time of arrival, minus the current time please?”, I would probably get some weird looks. But, if I were to ask you, fantasy baseball enthusiast, for your team’s current stolen base total, plus your rest of season (RoS) projected stolen base count, you would probably be delighted. It would give you a good sense of where your team is and where your team is heading.

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With just over a month of the season complete, we’re starting to look at more current season data to make decisions on who to add and who to cut, who to target in trades and who to move on from. Before the season, projections are a great way to value players, set prices and find targets for auctions. And we don’t lose that tool once the season starts.

With the projection systems providing Rest of Season (ROS) projections, we are able to identify what players are projected to do moving forward, instead of simply relying on performance to-date. To identify potential sell-highs or buy-lows (or buy-highs or sell-lows), it can be useful to look at the comparison of the two – who has most over- or under-performed their ROS projections.
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The Lineups Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Steve Gardner

Strategy Section

• Lineups
  • 5 games for a star vs. 7 games for a scrub
  • When should you start paying attention to categories when setting your lineup?
    • When should you be playing the Jon Berti types?
  • Monday morning decisions for injured players
    • What are the key words/terms that managers use that you should pay attention to when making your decisions?

Fantasy Baseball in 2021

• How does 2021’s lower batting average environment affect how you play fanasty?
• What does the 2021 pitching environment mean for player values?
• Should we change the rules of rotisserie baseball?
  • BA vs. OBP
  • Saves vs. Saves + Holds
  • Wins vs. IP vs. Wins + Quality Starts

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Every Sunday, Fred Zinkie and I spend between 30 minutes to an hour going over the three teams we share. The first words out of his mouth this week was, “I think we should add Martín Pérez.” And my first thought was that the smooth Canadian had been drinking a little too much. In classic Fred fashion, he went into detail that while Martin is a subpar pitcher and facing the Tigers who have struggled against left-handed pitching. As a team, the Tigers have a 38% K%, .467 OPS, and 33 wRC+.

I didn’t know how to how to evaluate the results when a pathetic pitcher faces an even more pathetic offense so, considering Fred’s performance history, I let him add away without too much of a fuss. I didn’t have a simple response, but I do now and I should have been suspicious of his proposal. Read the rest of this entry »

The Is It Too Early Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Strategy Section

• Is it too early?
  • Is it too early for individual scoring categories to matter?
  • Is it too early to play the matchups based on category standings?
  • Is it too early to punt categories or to alter your pre-season strategy?
  • Is it too early to evaluate how you did at the draft table?
  • Is it too early to cut a player that you spent meaningful draft capital on?

Hot / Cold Starts

• Cold Players
  • Patrick Corbin
  • Luis Castillo
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • Francisco Lindor
• Hot Players
  • Cedric Mullins
  • Byron Buxton
  • Jazz Chisholm
  • Matthew Boyd
  • Danny Duffy

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A while back, I investigated how a varied pitch mix helps produce weak contact. At the time, I wondered if varying pitch location would be a benefit for the pitcher. After a first stab at the data, the answer is somewhere between no and just not known.

The theory goes that a hitter would have a tough time squaring up a ball as it gets located in different parts of the strike zone. The results could even be more swing-and-miss. With this focus, I just dove in to see what stuck.

The first hurdle was finding a way to measure pitch location variation. I ended up using nine zones with nearly the same number of pitches in each zone. Deciding on just nine zone drives the rest of the results. Should there be more? Fewer? Some removed? If/when I reexamine the data, I’ll start here with some adjustments.
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Last week, I tried to find a decent source for the upcoming weather that had more than one or two days. After not finding one, I decided to create my own. Bookmark and use as needed.

American League

Angels

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The 2020 and ’21 seasons have created a unique fantasy baseball environment that has never existed. One of the biggest challenges is evaluating players. It’s been almost 18 months since there have been games across all levels. Players have changed for the good and bad. There is just no way to know how much with everyone hidden at the alternate sites. For hitters, xwOBA and a Barrel% formula can be a solution to spot and verify some breakouts.

With hitters, I find they change at a slower rate. While pitchers can change a pitch’s shape or its usage overnight, hitters can’t immediately change their batting eye or gain 50-home run power. It’s going to be subtle changes that won’t be noticeable for a few weeks. Still, I want to try to be one step ahead of these unknown adjustments by using the best indicators and hope to marry these best estimates from long-range projections.

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