Checking in on the Rabbits

If I were to look into the rear-view mirror while riding in the back seat of an Uber and ask the driver, “Could you tell me the expected time of arrival, minus the current time please?”, I would probably get some weird looks. But, if I were to ask you, fantasy baseball enthusiast, for your team’s current stolen base total, plus your rest of season (RoS) projected stolen base count, you would probably be delighted. It would give you a good sense of where your team is and where your team is heading.

Using pre-season Depth Charts (DC) and RoS DC, I used the following calculation to see how the rabbits have been running so far:

DIFF = ((Current stolen bases) + (RoS stolen base projection)) – Preseason stolen base projection

Using this against qualified hitters so far this season (as of Saturday, May 8th) we can look at the top 10 players who are exceeding original expectations and the top 10 players who are not stealing as much as we thought they would.

Ramón Laureano was only projected for 13 stolen bases and he already has recorded eight! He is now expected to steal 14 more bases this season, which will exceed his expectation by nine stolen bases. This has been a very nice surprise for managers.

This second table can be deceiving if you only look at the DIFF column. For example, Myles Straw is still expected to steal 25 bases the rest of the season. But going 5 for 7 in stolen base attempts so far in 2021, Straw might have you questioning whether or not he’s worthy of a productive outfield roster spot. I have Straw rostered in my ESPN (5×5 roto) league and I’ve been trying to decide if more offensive production should take his spot. I’ve had a lot of stolen base production from unexpected places, so it may be time to either cut, trade, or bench Straw. But which one makes sense?

To examine this a little further, I used the calculation from above for all my offensive counting stats. I took my current stats, added the RoS projections and compared that to the average totals held by league champions over the past 6 years. I also recently acquired Brandon Lowe in a trade and since he has OF eligibility, I’m considering plugging him into Straw’s spot as my go-to starter. Here’s what my end of season expectations are with Straw and with Brandon Lowe replacing Straw:

930 runs out of 1030 needed.
287 home runs out of 317 needed.
152 stolen bases out of 170 needed.
870 RBI out of 971 needed.

931 runs out of 1030 needed.
303 home runs out of 317 needed.
130 stolen bases out of 170 needed.
894 RBI out of 971 needed.

It’s not as dire as it looks. I’m only including projections for my starters and I’ll accumulate more counting stats on days where my starters have days off and I fill in with waiver claims or bench players. This is also not an exact science because injuries are sure to pop up, bringing these projections down. But, it’s a good exercise after a month of play. 

Looking at the results of this change I can see that the replacement of Straw with Lowe is expected to do exactly what you would think; drive up my home runs and RBI while bringing down my stolen base count. Luckily, I don’t have to drop Straw in order to keep Lowe. But, I’m going to need some serious offensive production off the bench to reach champion status.

This exercise in roster construction allows me to take stock of my totals and expectations while giving me a better perspective on whether or not rostering a rabbit-like Straw is productive. If you’re in a similar position, head over to the FanGraphs RoS projection system of your choice and use this calculation to check in on your counting stats.