Archive for Projections

2022 Pod vs Steamer — HR Upside — A Review

Let’s continue reviewing my 2022 posts and move on to my series pitting my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections. Reluctantly, I’ll start with the hitters I projected for a greater number of home runs than Steamer. Having not looked at the names just yet as I type this, I have a feeling this ain’t going to go well! This season’s league 11.4% HR/FB rate was its lowest since 2015, so a list of guys with upside likely worked out far worse than a list of guys with downside!

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2022 Pod Projections: Logan Webb — A Review

Today, I’ll review the starting pitcher Pod Projection I shared at the beginning of March. Logan Webb enjoyed a big breakout in 2021, with strikeouts, good control, and enough ground balls to fill a worm’s worst nightmare. So what did he do for an encore and how did his performance compare to the projections? Let’s find out.

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2022 Pod Projections: Wander Franco — A Review

Let’s break from reviewing my prediction lists where half the players discussed got injured and switch to reviewing one of my 2022 Pod Projections…of a player who also got hurt. At the end of Feb, I shared a detailed breakdown of my underlying metric forecasts and overall projection line for former uber prospect Wander Franco. Let’s see how he performed compared to my forecasts, and the computer systems.

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Fantasy Hitter Talent Evaluation with Rankings

The following process is how I create my rankings each season. I start with the hitter’s talent from projections and then adjust the playing time and talent. With no projections currently available, the talent aspect uses the rest-of-season Steamer600 projections. As more and historically better projections become available, I will transition to them. I’m just setting a baseline and can already guess I’m going to get some blowback on Esteury Ruiz (insane stolen base projection), Jose Siri (has 20/30 potential but on the Rays), and Seiya Suzuki (insane projection from Steamer).

Again, my valuations start with projections and then take other factors into account. I will include the same information and adjustments for each player. I try not to pick and choose what applies to who and remain consistent.

I’m going to try to fit as many of the factors into the rankings. I want to include about 10 items on each hitter, but the display page becomes too crowded. With the help of the others at FanGraphs, we are working on aesthetically inserting all the information. Possibly I’ll end up with a separate page like Roster Resource. Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – End of Season Wrap-Up Episode w/ Ian Kahn

The End of Season Wrap-Up Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Most memorable moment of the season

Fantasy MVPs

  • Drafted Hitters
  • Undrafted Hitters
  • Drafted Starting Pitchers
  • Undrafted Starting Pitchers
  • Relief Pitchers

Strategy Section

  • Which is more important – the draft, or in-season play?
  • Should we be avoiding risk more in drafts, particularly in the early rounds?
  • Lessons learned in 2022
    • What was the optimal closer strategy in 2022? Will it change in 2023?
    • What were some waiver wire strategy lessons learned from 2022?
    • Was the market premium for speed justified in 2022?
    • Were catchers worth taking early in drafts? Will they be worth taking early in 2023?
    • Was starting pitching worth buying early in drafts in 2022? Where should we look to purchase pitching in 2023?
  • Who are some potential “Spencer Strider” type candidtates for 2023?

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Help Needed: Hitters Who Played Through a 2022 Injury

So it is time for the annual article examing how hitters performed who didn’t let an injury heal and played through the pain. Whether these hitters cause permanent damage to their bodies or pick up bad habits, they continue to underperform their projections. Besides tallying the results, I have started collecting next year’s player list.

I first determined the decline in an article covering 2017 to 2019 and have continued collecting names and results (2020 and 2021). Read the rest of this entry »


No Respect: Adjustments, Correlation, & Breakouts

A couple of weeks ago, I examined hitters who were getting No Respect from the opposing defense. The pitchers were throwing these batters slow fastballs right across the plate. Additionally, the fielders moved up because they didn’t expect the guy to hit the ball with authority. After getting some hints from the comments and some changes I listed in the original article, I decided to implement a some with the goal to find inexperienced major league hitters who might not have shown all their power and have another gear. The MLB teams know of this power since they have access to minor league Trackman information. Read the rest of this entry »


How Are Your Counting Stats? Stolen Base Edition

Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Now is the point in the season where you are probably looking to accumulate stats from just about anyone. Adding and dropping and adding and dropping as the season comes to an end is a strategy that has worked for me in the past, but I play in a few daily moves leagues, where you don’t have to bring waiver claims to auction or use “FAB” money. Some fantasy managers like to let their rosters ride, but if you’re falling behind, or just need a few more stolen bases to move up a roto-point, now is the time to be more active. Here are three players who have low ESPN roster rates and should steal at least five bases the rest of the way this season.

Jon Berti, 24.2% rostered ESPN, ROS SB (Steamer): 7

Berti has benefited from the injury to Jazz Chisholm Jr., from a playing time standpoint in 2022. He has mostly been an everyday 2B/3B and has stolen three bases so far in August. Berti won’t be helping your AVG/OBP/SLG ratios, but he will be attempting to steal bases as the Marlins have the most stolen bases in the MLB this season. Out of all three players listed in this article, Berti has the most ROS projected stolen bases but is probably going to be the least productive offensively overall.

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Hitters Who Get “No Respect”

Recently I wrote up Myles Straw, I found out the league was throwing him the most fastballs (60%, league at 49%) and the most pitches in the strike zone (57%, league at 50%). Additionally, slow fastball pitchers weren’t afraid of him with the 13th lowest fastball velocity against. I went one step further and looked to see how far outfielders were playing him and he was one of the shallowest played guys. He was just getting no respect. Read the rest of this entry »


Can a Baseball Make it to the Moon?

Short answer: No.

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