Steamer “Overvalued” vs ADP: Top 50 Starting Pitchers

With drafts going and projections being released it is time to look at what they say about each other. This week I am going to look at what Steamer says about who is undervalued and overvalued at their current ADP. I took the FanGraphs Auction Calculator Values for Steamer and compared them to the current NFBC ADP to see which names jumped out at me within the top 50 starting pitchers according to Steamer’s projections.

Dylan Cease Steamer Projection: 190 innings, 14 W, 227 K, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

I understand a bit of why steamer dislikes Cease as he has to regress after such a monster 2022, but the question is “how far?” He is still mostly a two pitch guy and I wonder how long he can keep the homer rate so low considering that fact. He was also pretty lucky in terms of his BABIP and stand rate. I think we can look at his xFIP and SIERA as a good indication of what I would expect from his ERA which is about a 3.40-3.50 with a ton of strikeouts and a 1.15 WHIP. It definitely means he is overvalued, but not as much as Steamer would indicate.

Julio Urias Steamer Projection: 193 innings, 12 W, 185 K, 4.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

I know Urias has always been a guy that beats his projections but this seems crazy to me. He has four straight seasons of a 3.27 ERA and 1.15 WHIP or better and if you take out his 2020 shortened season, his worst years were a 2.96 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but he makes up for that with getting a ton of wins pitching for the best team in baseball and has now turned in two consecutive 175+ inning seasons. I think the only real red flag is health. While he hasn’t had any major injuries in the last few seasons, he has been nicked up a few times and always seems to have some sort of shoulder/arm issue that results in reduced velocity or dead arm. If you give him the 194 innings that Steamer projects for him, I think he is still a stud. I just would likely temper the innings total with his usual great results.

Alek Manoah Steamer Projection: 196.2 innings, 12 W, 198 K, 4.09 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

I think Manoah is another guy that is going to end up out-pitching his peripherals like Urias. He doesn’t walk guys and doesn’t give up homers. I love his arsenal and we saw him almost get to 200 innings this year. He does give up a lot of contact, but so little of it is hard contact that I am a believer that he can continue to get out of innings quickly. I also think that if he aims to, he can improve the strikeout rate closer to what we saw in 2021, but he may decide that isn’t what is in the best interest of him or the team. I think he regresses a little, but not nearly as much as Steamer does.

Triston McKenzie Steamer Projection: 184 innings, 191 K’s, 4.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

McKenzie’s value is largely tied up into two things: can he stay healthy and can he keep the ball in the yard. After struggling with the long ball in the first few months of the season giving up 16 home runs in his first 80.1 innings, McKenzie only allowed nine home runs in 111 innings from the beginning of July on. Part of that change can be attributed to throwing the fastball a little less not because it is a bad pitch (because it is not) but because he became less predictable as a pitcher by more effectively sequencing his pitches. While his slider is still not great, he has made comments about wanting to work on the shape of his slider which could help him keep a lot of the gains we saw in 2022. While in the minors he struggled with injury but seeing him throw 191 innings last season, I think we know he can throw a lot of innings, but his slight frame scares me a little bit in terms of his ability to hold up. I think I would project him to regress a bit but not nearly as far as Steamer thinks, but I would likely project him for less innings than Steamer does. In my mind he would still be a top 40 starter so about half way between where he is going in ADP and where Steamer projects him.  

Lucas Giolito Steamer Projection:176 innings, 180 K’s, 4.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

It is not surprising to see that Giolito is on this list considering he has put up two awful seasons out of the last four. He took a step back in strikeout rate, walk rate, and was just way more hittable than he had been in previous seasons allowing his highest contact rate over the last four seasons. He definitely got unlucky with his three most used pitches having a higher average against his xAvg and running a .340 BABIP. However, one of his biggest issues was how he reacted to falling behind in the count, where he really struggled compared to 2021.

I think part of it was sequencing pretty much becoming just a fastball/changeup pitcher when behind in the count, but he also would make bad mistakes in the zone when he fell behind allowing hitters to take advantage. I think an approach overhaul is needed and I don’t know that I can buy in on him this season given that.