Steamer “Values” vs ADP: Top 50 Starting Pitchers by Justin Mason November 18, 2022 With drafts going and projections being released it is time to look at what they say about each other. This week I am going to look at what Steamer says about who is undervalued and overvalued at their current ADP. I took the Fangraphs Auction Calculator Values for Steamer and compared them to the current NFBC ADP to see which names jumped out at me within the top 50 starting pitchers according to Steamer’s projections. Tyler Glasnow Steamer Projection: 160 innings, 11 W, 204 K, 3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP Steamer “Values” vs ADP: Top 50 Starting Pitchers Player Team Pos ADP Rank ADP Auction Calculator Rank Auction Calculator Dollars Difference Tyler Glasnow TBR SP 23 78.61 9 $22.60 14 ADP Rank does not include hitters or relievers while ADP includes all players. I think projections are a great tool, but there are reasons why we shouldn’t take them as Gospel and Glasnow’s projection is Exhibit A. There is no doubt that he is a talented pitcher and so I can buy the projection in his ratio categories in spite of having a career 4.00 ERA and 1.24 WHIP even if I personally would project worse. What I can’t buy is the innings total. Glasnow has never pitched 120 innings in a season at the Major League level and even if you add Major League and minor league time, he has never had a season 160 innings. The closest he has come was in 2017 when he threw 155.1 innings between AAA and the Pirates. Since then he has not topped 111.2 innings. Add that to the fact he had Tommy John Surgery and this will be his first full season back from that and I don’t know how you can project him to get anywhere close to 160 innings. This may be the easiest fade of his projection and ADP this year. Chris Sale Steamer Projection: 161 innings, 11 W, 189 K, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP Steamer “Values” vs ADP: Top 50 Starting Pitchers Player Team Pos ADP Rank ADP Auction Calculator Rank Auction Calculator Dollars Difference Chris Sale BOS SP 43 156.06 17 $16.70 26 ADP Rank does not include hitters or relievers while ADP includes all players. So this is similar to Glasnow’s projection, but unlike Glasnow, Sale has actually shown the ability to throw innings at points in his career. That being said, it has been a while. The last time Sale has thrown 160 innings in a season was 2017, though he came close in both 2018 and 2019 before missing 2020 due to Tommy John Surgery. Sale is getting a tag as an injury risk player and while I understand it, I think it is a bit unfair. While he did start 2022 with a rib injury, I prefer that to an arm issue. The rest of his injuries in 2022 were extremely fluky. He got hit in the finger with a comebacker that broke his pinky and then broke his wrist in a bicycle accident. He is going off the board after the top 40 starters and I think that is a nice price to take a pretty high upside gamble. Andrew Heaney Steamer Projection: 140 innings, 9 W, 162 Ks, 3.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP Steamer “Values” vs ADP: Top 50 Starting Pitchers Player Team Pos ADP Rank ADP Auction Calculator Rank Auction Calculator Dollars Difference Andrew Heaney FA SP 72 252.78 26 $12.80 46 ADP Rank does not include hitters or relievers while ADP includes all players. Here is a live video of me drafting Andrew Heaney again this year: via GIPHY No one in the industry has loved or still loves Andrew Heaney as much as me and I have the bruises to prove it. Before I gush too much on my crush, I have to acknowledge all the issues with this projection. The last time Andrew Heaney threw 140 innings in the Majors was 2018 and that is the only time he has ever done it. He has not had a home run rate as low as the one that is projected for him since 2015. We also have no idea what park he will be pitching in as he is a free agent right now. That being said, I will fall for him again. His ADP puts him at starter 72 which is prime for buying because if he doesn’t look good early on, he can be easily dropped in most formats. Health is key for Heaney, but after finishing the second half of the season completely healthy, there is some reason to be hopeful that he can finally put it all together. David Peterson Steamer Projection: 140 innings, 9 W, 149 Ks, 3.52 ERA, 1.29 WHIP Steamer “Values” vs ADP: Top 50 Starting Pitchers Player Team Pos ADP Rank ADP Auction Calculator Rank Auction Calculator Dollars Difference David Peterson NYM SP 103 364.56 47 $6.30 56 ADP Rank does not include hitters or relievers while ADP includes all players. Peterson was bounced between being a starter and a reliever in 2022, but it appears now could be his time. With Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt all now free agents, Peterson is in line to be a full time starter. That could change if the Mets sign more guys, but it seems likely that he has the role right now ahead of Tylor Megill (who could have been included on this list) because of Peterson being a lefty and Megill’s recent injury issues. If you combine Peterson’s minor league and Major League time, he threw 131.2 innings last season making it pretty easy for him to reach the 140 projected inning total that Steamer has for him. The walks will be the issue for Peterson as it has inflated his WHIP, but considering how late he is going, he is a nice gamble as long as the Mets don’t block him with a bunch of rotation additions. Alex Wood Steamer Projection: 151 innings, 8 W, 146 Ks, 3.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP Steamer “Values” vs ADP: Top 50 Starting Pitchers Player Team Pos ADP Rank ADP Auction Calculator Rank Auction Calculator Dollars Difference Alex Wood SFG SP 112 375.83 50 $6.10 62 ADP Rank does not include hitters or relievers while ADP includes all players. Here is another one that gives me the “warm and fuzzies”. I was a big fan of Wood coming into last season and while the underlying numbers were pretty great, he got unlucky and hurt by the awful defense the Giants played last season. According to Steamer, he is the best value of any starting pitcher going in the top 400 picks. While I buy that he is a great value at his price, the projection isn’t great innings wise. Wood has not thrown 150 innings since 2018 and the Giants are pretty conservative with their older or injury risk guys. I would probably project him for another 130 which still makes him a bargain, but just not as good as advertised.