With drafts going and projections being released it is time to look at what they say about each other. This week I am going to look at what Steamer says about who is undervalued and overvalued at their current ADP. I took the Fangraphs Auction Calculator Values for Steamer and compared them to the current NFBC ADP to see which names jumped out at me within the top 100 projected hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

The new Steamer is here!

The new Steamer is here!

The new Steamer is here!

The 2023 Steamer Projections are live, and we all have our favorite ways to consume. Some run right to the top and see what the stars expected to do, but I like running to the bargain bin looking for gems.

Here are 5 hitters with strong projections who could find more playing time and exceed expectations:

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In 2022 the average number of plate appearances among big leaguers was 121. A plate appearance marks any time a player walks up and digs into the batter box. Each spit, every toe twist, and all of the glove-tightening times in the box accumulate together into plate appearances. Let’s start with the easy one. Who had the most? Marcus Semien. He had 724. In fact, he had exactly 724 last season as well. That’s roughly 4.5 plate appearances per game.

That’s absurd.

He played in 161 games in 2022 and he wasn’t even the player who played in the most games this year. That would be 162 games and, actually, two players did it; Dansby Swanson and Matt Olson. Teammates! The Ironman Cal Ripken, Jr. averaged 4.3 plate appearances (12,883) per game (3,001) for his career. What Semien, Swanson, and Olson did this year is special. It should be an award in itself. If it is already and I don’t know it, don’t blast me. But I’m pretty sure people would just say, “Oh, an award just for showing up?” and I would argue that showing up is rare these days.

Here’s a histogram of 2022’s every plate appearance:

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The Beat the Shift Podcast – LIVE from First Pitch Arizona Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Tristan Cockcroft & Derek Carty

2023 Projections

• How will projections handle the new MLB rule changes?
  • Hits due to banning the shift
  • Stolen Bases
  • Balanced Schedule
• Will fantasy players overreact to the changes?
• How did 2022 projections handle the universal DH?

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Strategy Section

• What makes a risky player?
  • Can we determine / quantify player risk?
    • ATC Parameter Risk
• Should we be avoiding risk more in drafts, particularly in the early rounds?
  • Should reliable Freddie Freeman be a top-6 draft pick?
• Should risk be looked at on the (fantasy) team aggregate level, or only on an individual player basis?
  • Mike Podhorzer’s risky LABR team
• Corner Infielders in 2022 – Where was the value?
  • Where will the value be for corner infielders in 2023?

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Yesterday, I chose to embarrass myself by reviewing my list of home run upside guys, or those my Pod Projections were more bullish on than Steamer. Spoiler alert if you haven’t read the post yet — I lost every battle. Given that the league HR/FB rate was at its lowest since 2015, I should have a better chance of tallying up some wins on the home run downside list. Perhaps I’ll just embarrass myself even further. Let’s find out.

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Let’s continue reviewing my 2022 posts and move on to my series pitting my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections. Reluctantly, I’ll start with the hitters I projected for a greater number of home runs than Steamer. Having not looked at the names just yet as I type this, I have a feeling this ain’t going to go well! This season’s league 11.4% HR/FB rate was its lowest since 2015, so a list of guys with upside likely worked out far worse than a list of guys with downside!

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Today, I’ll review the starting pitcher Pod Projection I shared at the beginning of March. Logan Webb enjoyed a big breakout in 2021, with strikeouts, good control, and enough ground balls to fill a worm’s worst nightmare. So what did he do for an encore and how did his performance compare to the projections? Let’s find out.

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Let’s break from reviewing my prediction lists where half the players discussed got injured and switch to reviewing one of my 2022 Pod Projections…of a player who also got hurt. At the end of Feb, I shared a detailed breakdown of my underlying metric forecasts and overall projection line for former uber prospect Wander Franco. Let’s see how he performed compared to my forecasts, and the computer systems.

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The following process is how I create my rankings each season. I start with the hitter’s talent from projections and then adjust the playing time and talent. With no projections currently available, the talent aspect uses the rest-of-season Steamer600 projections. As more and historically better projections become available, I will transition to them. I’m just setting a baseline and can already guess I’m going to get some blowback on Esteury Ruiz (insane stolen base projection), Jose Siri (has 20/30 potential but on the Rays), and Seiya Suzuki (insane projection from Steamer).

Again, my valuations start with projections and then take other factors into account. I will include the same information and adjustments for each player. I try not to pick and choose what applies to who and remain consistent.

I’m going to try to fit as many of the factors into the rankings. I want to include about 10 items on each hitter, but the display page becomes too crowded. With the help of the others at FanGraphs, we are working on aesthetically inserting all the information. Possibly I’ll end up with a separate page like Roster Resource. Read the rest of this entry »

The End of Season Wrap-Up Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Most memorable moment of the season

Fantasy MVPs

• Drafted Hitters
• Undrafted Hitters
• Drafted Starting Pitchers
• Undrafted Starting Pitchers
• Relief Pitchers

Strategy Section

• Which is more important – the draft, or in-season play?
• Should we be avoiding risk more in drafts, particularly in the early rounds?
  • Should reliable Freddie Freeman types be pushed up in drafts?
  • Jose Ramirez vs. Trea Turner vs. Aaron Judge for 2023 drafts?
• Lessons learned in 2022
  • What was the optimal closer strategy in 2022? Will it change in 2023?
  • What were some waiver wire strategy lessons learned from 2022?
  • Was the market premium for speed justified in 2022?
  • Were catchers worth taking early in drafts? Will they be worth taking early in 2023?
  • Was starting pitching worth buying early in drafts in 2022? Where should we look to purchase pitching in 2023?
• Who are some potential “Spencer Strider” type candidtates for 2023?

Read the rest of this entry »

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