5 Potential Breakouts per Steamer Projections

The new Steamer is here!

The new Steamer is here!

The new Steamer is here!

The 2023 Steamer Projections are live, and we all have our favorite ways to consume. Some run right to the top and see what the stars expected to do, but I like running to the bargain bin looking for gems.

Here are 5 hitters with strong projections who could find more playing time and exceed expectations:

Lars Nootbaar | STL, OF | .246/.343/.442

19 HR, 7 SB, 55 RBI, 66 R in 481 PA

Noot broke out last year (125 wRC+, 14 HR in 347 PA) and it has pushed him into that key mid-round range (13th-16th round ADP) where many potential gamechangers reside (). He batted 1st or 2nd in 21 of his final 33 starts including the final week and two playoff games. While Nootbaar was not the direct replacement, their confidence in him might’ve played a role in the Cards trading Harrison Bader, knowing they could shift Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson to CF and Noot into a corner.

Strong plate skills led by his excellent eye (15% BB, 0.72 BB/K; lg avg: 8%, 0.36) and red-laden StatCast profile (80th+ percentile in HardHit, Max EV, Avg EV, Barrel, BB%, Chase) have boosted the hype on the 25-year-old, but not made him cost-prohibitive. This projection seems to put him in a platoon role, but I’m not sure that’s his fate, especially with Albert Pujols no longer eating up the DH spot against them. While it is a minuscule 95 PA sample, he has held his own v. southpaws in the majors with a robust .859 OPS.

He has enough speed to overperform the SB projection, too, though that would be icing on the cake. The 7 projection is totally fine, but he is 74th percentile in Sprint Speed and an above average 4.28 Home-to-1st time (tied with many players including O’Neill, Daulton Varsho, Jeremy Peña, Starling Marte, and just behind Bader’s 4.27 mark).

Matt Mervis | CHC, 1B | .259/.321/.447

18 HR, 2 SB, 53 RBI, 46 R in 381 PA

I just saw Mervis at the Arizona Fall League where he’s tearing the cover off the ball (.959 OPS & league-leading 6 HR) and driving some early draft season buzz. His ADP is just 315th in the 17 drafts completed so far, but he went 206th and 225th in the two drafts that took place at the conference, both of which destroy his current minimum pick of 277th (neither of those data points show up in ADP yet because the drafts won’t be completed until January – we do 23 rounds live in Arizona and the final 27 online in January).

When Eno Sarris interviewed Mervis, he learned that the 2020 undrafted prospect put together a detailed spreadsheet to determine where he should sign. Remember, that was just a 5-round draft so being undrafted doesn’t quite have the same negative connotation of a standard draft. Undrafted guys could get $20K from an interested party and after his analysis of the 1B outlook and development path across the league, Mervis settled on the Cubs. After an uninspiring pro debut, Mervis continued to tweak his swing which yielded a 36-HR barrage across three levels that has been capped off with the AFL performance.

Entering his age-25 season, Mervis has such a clear path to 1B that he’s already penciled in there per Roster Resource (as of November 11th, obviously subject to change if CHC makes a move). Power and patience drive the profile. He also improved K% rate as he scaled the minor league ladder (24% in 108 PA at A+, 20% in 230 at AA, 15% in 240 PA at AAA) and if that’s legit, there’s a Baby Rizzo vibe here. That said, I’m a bit worried that he become too costly as draft season wears on.

If he starts to live in the early-200s, he will be going ahead of one-time heralded prospects Triston Casas and Spencer Torkelson, both of whom saw their stock drop after disappointing 2022 campaigns, as well as established veterans like Trey Mancini, Luke Voit, and Jared Walsh. The Arizona drafts have their thumb on the scale a bit for prospects playing in the AFL so if this weekend was just a blip and Mervis stays in the early-300s ADP range, I’m open to taking the shot. I’m not sure I can do an early-to-mid 200s pick until he is 100% locked in as the Cubs Opening Day 1B.

Miguel Vargas | LAD, 3B | .264/.337/.446

18 HR, 8 SB, 64 RBI, 62 R in 497 PA

If the Dodgers bring back Justin Turner (edit: if they do bring him back, it will be via a new deal as they declined his option), it cuts off the most obvious path to playing time for Vargas, but he did play some LF in both AAA and the majors last year so that could be an alternate path as I’m not sure Trayce Thompson has a firm hold on that role, even after his 2nd half surge (164 wRC+, 8th in MLB min. 180 PA). The Dodgers could do literally anything this offseason, ranging from re-signing Trea Turner and adding Aaron Judge to trusting young bucks Vargas and Michael Busch in prominent roles. Vargas could be a major trade chip and find himself in a full-time role elsewhere. Any number of potential outcomes.

As the 324th pick on average so far, you can afford to absorb the risk that he doesn’t start all year, though Steamer is optimistic with the 497 PA (more than Thompson and Cody Bellinger). He is the 196th hitter off the board in early drafts while the Auction Calculator puts this line as the 122nd best hitter, giving him some wiggle room if he isn’t an everyday guy right away. He is a 13 HR/SB per 500 PA guy in the minors, besting that at Triple-A last year with 17 HR/16 SB and a 129 wRC+ in 520 PA. The PCL inflates offense, but his .915 OPS was still tied for 4th-highest among 112 AAA guys with at least 400 PA.

I’m not concerned by his meager 26 wRC+ in his 50 PA cup of coffee during which he played back-to-back games just four times. Bottom line is Vargas can hit and he has a solid chance to be an instant impact rookie next year. The question will be if his power develops or does hew closer to the Yandy Díaz comp he got in his prospect write up.

Brett Baty | NYM, 3B | .256/.330/.434

9 HR, 2 SB, 29 RBI, 28 R in 231 PA

Strong slash line from Steamer, but the hype is tamped down by the 231 PA. Eduardo Escobar is still under contract for just $10 mil so he is currently penciled in as the starting 3B. I know Luis Guillorme is a fan favorite, but he is best deployed as a super utilityman, not an everyday guy at 2B. Jeff McNeil might just go back there (currently in RF per RR) if they sign an outfielder, though, so that wouldn’t even necessarily be an avenue for Baty (by moving Escobar to 2B, not Baty).

Projections can only bake in so much of the “shit happens” factor which is mostly just injuries. Obviously chronic injuries show themselves in projections by way of evaporating playing time, but it’s impossible to predict the future and none of the aforementioned guys are particularly young (Guillorme 28, McNeil 31, and Escobar 34) so I am totally fine paying the 391 ADP for Baty in Draft Champions leagues for the chance at a big upside everyday player. He essentially skipped Triple-A before making his debut, spending just 6 games there before his mid-August debut. There is nothing to be gleaned from his 42 PA sample. He didn’t seem overmatched, but it’s far too early to definitively declare that.

Oscar Colas | CWS, OF | .262/.312/.454

14 HR, 2 SB, 42 RBI, 39 R in 322 PA

Colas is an international signing from Cuba by way of Japan. He is a power corner outfielder who will likely go as far as his plate skills take him. His free-swinging ways were exposed a bit at the upper levels this year with a 26% K and 6% BB in 258 PA. It didn’t stop him from doing damage (139 wRC+ in AA; 182 during his week in AAA), clubbing 16 HRs with a .257 ISO. There is very little chance he breaks camp this year and his 516 ADP reflects that, but he could spend 4+ months up with the White Sox and hit 20+ HR. A half season with the Steamer projection has value in Draft Champions leagues (remember, there are 750 players picked in those leagues), but it is a high risk/reward profile. Know the name and keep tabs on his early season work at Triple-A so you’re not caught flatfooted when he comes up.