A ridgeline distribution plot allows you to easily compare distributions across multiple categories. For this post, I’ve created one plot for each classic 5×5 roto category and position. I used ATC projections to graph the distribution and I’ll point out a few interesting trends that we can gather from each visual. Let’s have some fun with visualizations!

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Stolen Bases

First, you may notice the left tail of this visual goes below zero. Since the ridgeline creates a smooth curve over where the bars of a histogram would be, it smooths out into an area that may not be represented by data. However, if you take your cursor and move up the zero line, you can see that there are a lot of 1B and 3B players projected for one stolen base. The same happens on the right side of each plot. ATC projects only two outfielders for 30+ stolen bases, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Jake McCarthy.

The ridgeline essentially stops at 32 (Acuña’s projection) and tails off from there. So, it’s best not to focus too much on the tails of these graphs but instead on the peaks and to the left and right of the peaks. If you do that, you may notice that there’s a wide range of base-stealers in the SS, 2B, and OF positions, but you already knew that. Instead, look at the 1B peaks and notice that you can target players projected to accumulate six or more stolen bases. Here they are:

This mostly goes to show why players like Freeman, Goldschmidt, and Guerrero Jr. are all elite picks. However, you can pick up a few SBs in Rizzo and Myers without spending too much. That could be valuable on the bench. Miguel Vargas is penciled in as the second base nine-hole hitter on the Dodgers’ Roster Resource, but if he has 1B eligibility in your league, he may be a nice late-round flier.

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Batting Average

Different from stolen bases, we see that there are players all over the field who can provide high averages. However, take your cursor and move it from top to bottom along the .300 line. You’ll notice that the 1B and SS lines keep going whereas the OF, 2B, and 3B lines stop. There are a few 1B and SS players skewing the distribution to the right. Who are they?

If you don’t think Freeman, Goldschmidt, and Guerrero Jr. are worth the spend (roto or salary) then what will it take? These three show up as top targets in both stolen bases and batting averages among first basemen. I wonder if they hit home runs too? But, if you want to zip when everyone else zags, look no further than Pasquantino, Lowe, and Abreu. Yes, you’re faced with a big drop-off in runs, but you still have a power/average combo at a more modest price. How about the shortstops?

While it’s a smaller list, there’s a lot to like. We can deduce shortstops are more likely to provide an average/speed combination and that first basemen are likely to provide a power/average combination when targeted appropriately.

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Home Runs

This time, take your cursor and drag it from the top of the visual to the bottom at the 35 mark. What I find interesting here is the power drop off at 3B. Many fantasy analysts have been writing and talking about the major drop off at the 3B position, and this visual reinforces it. First base shows up yet again as such a critical spot and OF positional players hold a lot of power beyond that 35 mark. Here are the OF and 1B players projected to hit 30 or more homeruns by ATC:

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Runs

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RBI

Runs and RBI come from offensively productive players and it helps when they are on good teams. These visualizations reinforce the importance of drafting top-tier 1B and 3B players. But, the distributions are a little more even. Certainly OF players are holding higher run totals, but projected RBI totals are shared fairly evenly among OF, 3B, and 1B players.

If you want a larger summary of what to glean from these distributions it’s that waiting on corner infielders is not recommended, that you can double up on speed and batting average from shortstops, and power doesn’t have to come with empty stolen base potential and that there is simply more production in total to be found in the OF position.

Let’s continue rolling on with the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories and discussing the players each system is more bullish on. Today, we shift over to runs batted in (RBI) and follow the same 650 plate appearance pace calculation I did when reviewing stolen base forecasts. RBI are driven by a couple of factors — the batter’s own offense, particularly his power/extra-base hit ability, his spot in the lineup (middle of the order, spots 3-5, are best), and the performance of the hitters ahead of him in the lineup (ideally, they are high OBP, but lower in power so they drive in other runners or themselves via the home run less frequently and leave more for the batter in question). Since one of those factors is power, driven significantly by home runs, there will be some similar names here to what made THE BAT X home run favorites list. That makes sense! So let’s get to it.

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Let’s continue the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories. Today, I’ll shift over to batting average, and identify and discuss the hitters that THE BAT X is more bullish on than Steamer. Unlike the counting stat showdowns, there’s no need to perform extra calculations to account for different PA forecasts, making it a whole lot easier! Batting average differences are primarily driven by disagreements over projected BABIP and/or strikeout rate, so let’s find out what’s fueling THE BAT X’s optimism.

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The Outfield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Sara Sanchez

Strategy Section

• Blind spots of projections
  • When can the human eye do better than projections?
• Masataka Yoshida
• Outfiled Player Pool
  • General layout
  • Platoon players strategy
• Juan Soto vs. Freddie Freeman

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

ATC Undervalued Players

• Outfielders
  • Nick Castellanos
  • Taylor Ward
  • Jake McCarthy
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • Alex Verdugo
  • Mitch Haniger
  • Randal Grichuk
  • Austin Hays
  • Manuel Margot
  • TJ Friedl
  • Tyrone Taylor
  • Garrett Mitchell
  • Ian Happ

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It’s time for another examination of projection accuracies while I finish up hitters. I will focus on rate stats along with a different look at the RBI and Runs totals. The results are just slightly different than last year and now the aggregators take the top

From last season, here was my conclusion on the rate stats.

Hitter Rate/Counting Stats

For the stand-alone projections, THE BAT’s stand out (I’d use THE BAT X). Just below THE BAT are all four aggregators.

As for the background on how I’m comparing the projections, it can be found in this article. Additionally, I examined the counting stat accuracy in another article. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I pivoted the 2023 projection showdown pitting THE BAT X against Steamer to stolen bases. These were the hitters THE BAT X was more bullish on for steals than Steamer. Now let’s find out who Steamer is more bullish on than THE BAT X for stolen bases, given a constant 650 plate appearances.

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2023’s PitcherList PitchCon was a great time. If you are unfamiliar with the event I highly recommend going back and watching any of the videos from any one of the four day’s recordings. FanGraphs’ own Ariel Cohen presented a few aspects of his ATC projections that I had never been aware of and think could be very useful in draft preparation. I encourage you to go back and watch Cohen’s talk on The Value of ATC Volatility Charts. In this post, I’ll take a look ATC’s InterSD, InterSK, and IntraSD metrics. Join me by opening a new tab, clicking on over to the ATC projections page, shuffling to the “Fantasy” tab and noticing three columns all the way to the right of the spreadsheet.

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Let’s continue the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories. Today, I’ll shift over to stolen bases, and identify and discuss the hitters that THE BAT X is more bullish on than Steamer. Like I did for home runs, I converted the projected stolen base total into a ratio first and then calculated the season pace. For steals, I used plate appearances as the denominator, instead of at-bats, and then 650 PAs for the season pace. Let’s find out who THE BAT X likes to steal more bases than Steamer.

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It’s time to continue examining projection accuracy. Today, it’s a quick run through the hitter counting stats. From last year’s results, I came to the following conclusion.

Hitter Rate/Counting Stats

For the stand-alone projections, THE BATs stands out (I’d use THE BAT X). Just below THE BAT are all four aggregators.

This year’s results didn’t disappoint.

I’m not reposting all the background information that no one reads anyway. It can all be found in the previous playing time article. I’ll just post the results and then draw my conclusions. Read the rest of this entry »

Now that you’ve gone through the keep or cut process, are you ready to draft? Do you have a big board on your wall with your targets? Do you know how much you’ll pay and how much you won’t? The FanGraphs auction calculator will tell you what a player is worth based on your league and whichever projection system you prefer, but which players do you need to get to fill out your roster? In this post I’ll detail my process for targeting players in an Ottoneu FanGraphs points league re-draft auction.
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