Let’s get back to reviewing the preseason Pod Projection writeups I shared. Today, I’ll review Ketel Marte, who enjoyed a breakout 2019, disappointed during the short 2020 season, and then rebounded nicely in 2021 during an injury plagued year. Refresh your memory by rereading my original breakdown.
With drafts going and projections being released it is time to look at what they say about each other. This week I am going to look at what Steamer says about who is undervalued and overvalued at their current ADP. I took the FanGraphs Auction Calculator Values for Steamer and compared them to the current NFBC ADP to see which names jumped out at me within the top 100 projected hitters.
Francisco Lindor Steamer Projection: PAs 666 24 HR, 81 R, 86 RBI, 13 SBs, .250/.322/.430
| Player | Team | Position(s) | Auction Calculator Rank | Auction Calculator Dollars | NFBC ADP Rank | NFBC ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | SS | 54 | $17.30 | 24 | 32.39 | 30 |
Lindor finally looked like the vintage version of himself in 2022, putting up a top 10 fantasy season so I am a little surprised he made this list. There isn’t a ton in the profile that says he is going to take a step back as long as he is healthy and after playing 161 games in 2022, there isn’t much reason to believe he won’t be again. He could definitely regress a bit in the batting average department as he had an xAVG of .254, but batting average is fluky and I am not overthinking that too much. I think he is a pretty safe bet as a third round pick and if he drops in a draft, I’ll be snagging him most times.
Ozzie Albies Steamer Projection: 570 PAs, 20 HR, 69 R, 73 RBI, 13 SBs, .259/.312/.455
| Player | Team | Position(s) | Auction Calculator Rank | Auction Calculator Dollars | NFBC ADP Rank | NFBC ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | ATL | 2B | 92 | $13.50 | 28 | 41.83 | 64 |
Albies has the largest gap between his ADP and Auction value of any hitter in the top 100. This one is all about health. Albies only played in 64 games which was the second time in three seasons in which he missed a larger portion of the season. When healthy, Albies is a five category stud, but last year he was a massive bust for those of us taking him in the first or second round. I don’t want to dismiss the other concerns for Albies however. Albies was struggling before his initial injury, hitting .244/.289/.405 with eight home runs and three stolen bases and was dropping in the lineup. Lineup spot will be very important to his value as he loses a lot of value if he is not hitting in the top half. I tend to believe he will be hitting in the top five and should be healthy heading into 2023, so I am willing to take a gamble on a player I was willing to take as a first round pick last year that I can get in the fourth round like I did in my first draft of the year.
Trevor Story Steamer Projection: PAs 642, 23 HR, 77 R 82 RBI, 17 SBs, .238/.311/.425
| Player | Team | Position(s) | Auction Calculator Rank | Auction Calculator Dollars | NFBC ADP Rank | NFBC ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Story | BOS | 2B | 74 | $15.10 | 41 | 66.83 | 33 |
Story is coming off of a disaster season in his first year in Boston where he played just 94 games and struggled massively when healthy. I can chalk up a lot to learning to hit outside of Coors, learning a new position, and injury. That being said, I think some of his ADP is still based on his name value which was boosted by his former home park. There are some concerns with the underlying skills. He had his highest strikeout rate, hostess o-swing, and lowest contact rate since 2017. He did still hit the ball with authority and was fantastic on the bases, not getting caught once. I think he is one of the hardest players to project due to his first season out of Coors being so injury riddled, but the stretch of 202 plate appearances between June 1 and ending his season on September 11 where he hit seven home runs and stole seven bases with a .254 average feels about right and when you project that over the 575 plate appearances that FanGraphs Depth Charts gives him, you get a 20/20 season with a .254 average and that would put him right around where steamer has him which confirms for me that he is probably being over-drafted.
Gunnar Henderson Steamer Projection: PAs 619, 22 HR, 76 R, 78 RBI, 10 SBs, .254/.344/.443
| Player | Team | Position(s) | Auction Calculator Rank | Auction Calculator Dollars | NFBC ADP Rank | NFBC ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | 3B | 84 | $14.10 | 58 | 97.94 | 26 |
Man, I want to love Henderson for this year, but I am afraid of the hype. He is already going in the top 100 and I just am having a hard time believing he is worth that. On the plus side, he should have an everyday role right off the bat and there is a ton of talent in the bat. On the negative side, Henderson had a two degree launch angle in the Majors and that led to a 60% ground ball rate and a 24.4% flyball percentage which was even worse than his high ground ball and low flyball rates we saw him post in AAA. He was also oddly passive at the plate, sporting a 41% swing percentage which led to a 18.6% called strike rate and below average z-contact rate. The power is there but he will have a hard time tapping into it right away unless there is a change in the approach and swing path. I think he is a fade for me this season especially as the price inevitably climbs due to his youth and upside.
Adolis Garcia Steamer Projection: PAs 648, 27 HR, 74 R, 86 RBI, 17 SBs, .233/.283/.427
| Player | Team | Position(s) | Auction Calculator Rank | Auction Calculator Dollars | NFBC ADP Rank | NFBC ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | OF | 64 | $16.20 | 42 | 67.11 | 22 |
Adolis was everyone’s favorite fade last year to the point that he became a huge bargain on draft day. However, I am still fading the underlying skills. He had the third worst zone contact rate, ninth worst o-swing, and fourth worst swinging strike rate of any qualified hitter in baseball last year. There is a ton of power and speed and his defense will keep him on the field through cold stretches, so even when the awful plate skills catch up with him, he can still have value especially if you have strong batting average players offsetting what could be a huge anchor. Right now, I can’t pay the price, but as more and more people write and talk about the bad underlying numbers, he could end up being another good value once again.
Tyler O’Neill Steamer Projection: PAs 559, 26 HR, 68 R. 75 RBI, 14 SBs, .243/.315/.447
| Player | Team | Position(s) | Auction Calculator Rank | Auction Calculator Dollars | NFBC ADP Rank | NFBC ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler O’Neill | STL | OF | 88 | $13.80 | 61 | 102.33 | 27 |
This is an interesting one for me. At first glance O’Neill’s line doesn’t look that bad. He made some really good changes to his approach and underlying skills. He became more patient and selective which led to a career best zone contact, walk rate and strikeout rate. I think a lot of it comes down to how many games he plays. Steamer projects 134 a year after he played only 96 due to injury and two years after playing 138. He is projected to be healthy this season and his defense should keep him on the field when healthy, but there are rumors he could be dealt to a different team. Where he ends up will determine a lot of his value. Staying in St. Louis is a bit of a double edged sword. It is a fantastic lineup which is good and bad as he has no chance at being one of the top four hitters, but you want players in good lineups. The Cardinals also have multiple prospects knocking on the door of the Majors and while they aren’t naturally outfielders, it seems likely that Jordan Walker will move to the outfield and Masyn Winn could push Tommy Edman to the outfield. If O’Neill gets traded, he likely bats higher in the lineup and is in a better park, but that could raise his price. Right now, I am not overly scared of the current price because of how bad the outfield position is, but his price is important to keep watching.
Kris Bryant Steamer Projection: 568 PAs, 20 HR, 78 R, 69 RBI, 5 SB, .269//.348/.458
| Player | Team | Position(s) | Auction Calculator Rank | Auction Calculator Dollars | NFBC ADP Rank | NFBC ADP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Bryant | COL | OF | 99 | $12.60 | 66 | 110.83 | 33 |
Bryant is coming off of a lost season in his first with the Rockies in which he only played 42 games. He was great in the games he played, hitting .306/.376/.475 with five home runs, though 26 of his 42 games were in Coors. One of the main issues is that he has struggled to stay healthy. Bryant has lost major parts of three of the last five seasons and has not played in 150 games since 2017. I think Bryant has been overrated for a few years now, but the fact he is in Coors now will continue that trend. I am fading him at the current price and do not expect his price to drop moving forward.
With drafts going and projections being released it is time to look at what they say about each other. This week I am going to look at what Steamer says about who is undervalued and overvalued at their current ADP. I took the Fangraphs Auction Calculator Values for Steamer and compared them to the current NFBC ADP to see which names jumped out at me within the top 100 projected hitters. Read the rest of this entry »
The new Steamer is here!
The new Steamer is here!
The new Steamer is here!
The 2023 Steamer Projections are live, and we all have our favorite ways to consume. Some run right to the top and see what the stars expected to do, but I like running to the bargain bin looking for gems.
Here are 5 hitters with strong projections who could find more playing time and exceed expectations:
In 2022 the average number of plate appearances among big leaguers was 121. A plate appearance marks any time a player walks up and digs into the batter box. Each spit, every toe twist, and all of the glove-tightening times in the box accumulate together into plate appearances. Let’s start with the easy one. Who had the most? Marcus Semien. He had 724. In fact, he had exactly 724 last season as well. That’s roughly 4.5 plate appearances per game.
That’s absurd.
He played in 161 games in 2022 and he wasn’t even the player who played in the most games this year. That would be 162 games and, actually, two players did it; Dansby Swanson and Matt Olson. Teammates! The Ironman Cal Ripken, Jr. averaged 4.3 plate appearances (12,883) per game (3,001) for his career. What Semien, Swanson, and Olson did this year is special. It should be an award in itself. If it is already and I don’t know it, don’t blast me. But I’m pretty sure people would just say, “Oh, an award just for showing up?” and I would argue that showing up is rare these days.
Here’s a histogram of 2022’s every plate appearance:
The Beat the Shift Podcast – LIVE from First Pitch Arizona Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guests: Tristan Cockcroft & Derek Carty
2023 Projections
Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
Strategy Section
Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download
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Yesterday, I chose to embarrass myself by reviewing my list of home run upside guys, or those my Pod Projections were more bullish on than Steamer. Spoiler alert if you haven’t read the post yet — I lost every battle. Given that the league HR/FB rate was at its lowest since 2015, I should have a better chance of tallying up some wins on the home run downside list. Perhaps I’ll just embarrass myself even further. Let’s find out.
Let’s continue reviewing my 2022 posts and move on to my series pitting my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections. Reluctantly, I’ll start with the hitters I projected for a greater number of home runs than Steamer. Having not looked at the names just yet as I type this, I have a feeling this ain’t going to go well! This season’s league 11.4% HR/FB rate was its lowest since 2015, so a list of guys with upside likely worked out far worse than a list of guys with downside!
Today, I’ll review the starting pitcher Pod Projection I shared at the beginning of March. Logan Webb enjoyed a big breakout in 2021, with strikeouts, good control, and enough ground balls to fill a worm’s worst nightmare. So what did he do for an encore and how did his performance compare to the projections? Let’s find out.
Let’s break from reviewing my prediction lists where half the players discussed got injured and switch to reviewing one of my 2022 Pod Projections…of a player who also got hurt. At the end of Feb, I shared a detailed breakdown of my underlying metric forecasts and overall projection line for former uber prospect Wander Franco. Let’s see how he performed compared to my forecasts, and the computer systems.