Projected Category Distributions by Position

A ridgeline distribution plot allows you to easily compare distributions across multiple categories. For this post, I’ve created one plot for each classic 5×5 roto category and position. I used ATC projections to graph the distribution and I’ll point out a few interesting trends that we can gather from each visual. Let’s have some fun with visualizations!

Stolen Bases

Projected ATC SB Distribution by Position

First, you may notice the left tail of this visual goes below zero. Since the ridgeline creates a smooth curve over where the bars of a histogram would be, it smooths out into an area that may not be represented by data. However, if you take your cursor and move up the zero line, you can see that there are a lot of 1B and 3B players projected for one stolen base. The same happens on the right side of each plot. ATC projects only two outfielders for 30+ stolen bases, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Jake McCarthy.

The ridgeline essentially stops at 32 (Acuña’s projection) and tails off from there. So, it’s best not to focus too much on the tails of these graphs but instead on the peaks and to the left and right of the peaks. If you do that, you may notice that there’s a wide range of base-stealers in the SS, 2B, and OF positions, but you already knew that. Instead, look at the 1B peaks and notice that you can target players projected to accumulate six or more stolen bases. Here they are:

1B with 6+ Stolen Bases
Name Team G PA AB HR SB
Freddie Freeman LAD 155 675 582 25 10
Miguel Vargas LAD 122 472 423 14 8
Seth Brown OAK 126 494 447 22 8
Paul Goldschmidt STL 152 650 567 30 7
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 152 657 583 35 6
Anthony Rizzo NYY 135 571 492 26 6
Wil Myers CIN 122 488 439 17 6
*ATC Projections

This mostly goes to show why players like Freeman, Goldschmidt, and Guerrero Jr. are all elite picks. However, you can pick up a few SBs in Rizzo and Myers without spending too much. That could be valuable on the bench. Miguel Vargas is penciled in as the second base nine-hole hitter on the Dodgers’ Roster Resource, but if he has 1B eligibility in your league, he may be a nice late-round flier.

Batting Average

Projected ATC Average Distribution by Position

Different from stolen bases, we see that there are players all over the field who can provide high averages. However, take your cursor and move it from top to bottom along the .300 line. You’ll notice that the 1B and SS lines keep going whereas the OF, 2B, and 3B lines stop. There are a few 1B and SS players skewing the distribution to the right. Who are they?

Top 1B by Projected AVG
Name Team G PA AB HR R RBI AVG
Luis Arraez MIA 136 573 515 6 75 54 0.302
Freddie Freeman LAD 155 675 582 25 106 93 0.301
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 152 657 583 35 96 102 0.289
Harold Castro COL 40 154 145 2 16 17 0.285
Paul Goldschmidt STL 152 650 567 30 95 97 0.281
Vinnie Pasquantino KCR 139 581 509 22 68 77 0.279
Harold Ramírez TBR 110 442 411 8 46 52 0.278
Donovan Solano 73 287 262 5 29 30 0.274
DJ LeMahieu NYY 110 473 417 9 59 44 0.273
Nathaniel Lowe TEX 146 613 546 22 75 75 0.273
José Abreu HOU 147 626 555 21 78 83 0.272
*ATC Projections

If you don’t think Freeman, Goldschmidt, and Guerrero Jr. are worth the spend (roto or salary) then what will it take? These three show up as top targets in both stolen bases and batting averages among first basemen. I wonder if they hit home runs too? But, if you want to zip when everyone else zags, look no further than Pasquantino, Lowe, and Abreu. Yes, you’re faced with a big drop-off in runs, but you still have a power/average combo at a more modest price. How about the shortstops?

Top SS by Projected AVG
Name Team G PA AB HR R RBI AVG
Trea Turner PHI 152 663 607 22 101 81 0.292
Tim Anderson CHW 131 576 544 14 82 55 0.291
Wander Franco TBR 140 602 546 13 82 69 0.286
Bo Bichette TOR 150 652 603 25 93 88 0.285
Corey Seager TEX 143 617 546 28 84 83 0.278
Nico Hoerner CHC 137 560 511 9 68 55 0.278
Amed Rosario CLE 145 618 582 11 78 65 0.277
Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP 116 497 437 31 82 81 0.277
*ATC Projections

While it’s a smaller list, there’s a lot to like. We can deduce shortstops are more likely to provide an average/speed combination and that first basemen are likely to provide a power/average combination when targeted appropriately.

Home Runs

Projected ATC HR Distribution by Position

This time, take your cursor and drag it from the top of the visual to the bottom at the 35 mark. What I find interesting here is the power drop off at 3B. Many fantasy analysts have been writing and talking about the major drop off at the 3B position, and this visual reinforces it. First base shows up yet again as such a critical spot and OF positional players hold a lot of power beyond that 35 mark. Here are the OF and 1B players projected to hit 30 or more homeruns by ATC:

OF and 1B 30+ HR Projections
Name Team G PA AB HR
Aaron Judge NYY 149 645 545 43
Mike Trout LAA 139 601 509 40
Kyle Schwarber PHI 144 616 527 39
Pete Alonso NYM 154 656 572 38
Yordan Alvarez HOU 144 611 526 38
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 152 657 583 35
Matt Olson ATL 154 657 569 35
Kyle Tucker HOU 152 630 564 33
Mookie Betts LAD 146 643 563 31
Byron Buxton MIN 120 507 458 31
Paul Goldschmidt STL 152 650 567 30
Rowdy Tellez MIL 137 558 494 30
Juan Soto SDP 151 664 521 30
Teoscar Hernández SEA 139 589 540 30
Anthony Santander BAL 141 605 548 30
Giancarlo Stanton NYY 122 514 454 30
*ATC Projections

Runs

Projected ATC R Distribution by Position

RBI

Projected ATC RBI Distribution by Position

 

Runs and RBI come from offensively productive players and it helps when they are on good teams. These visualizations reinforce the importance of drafting top-tier 1B and 3B players. But, the distributions are a little more even. Certainly OF players are holding higher run totals, but projected RBI totals are shared fairly evenly among OF, 3B, and 1B players.

If you want a larger summary of what to glean from these distributions it’s that waiting on corner infielders is not recommended, that you can double up on speed and batting average from shortstops, and power doesn’t have to come with empty stolen base potential and that there is simply more production in total to be found in the OF position.





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docgooden85member
1 year ago

Love this format. Internalizing these shapes makes you a roster construction genius.