2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Home Run Forecasts, Part 1

The most interesting player projections are those that vary wildly from system to system. I love when the forecasting systems disagree about a certain player as it really spotlights the different methodologies of the underlying projection processes driving the calculations. Sometimes it’s obvious what’s driving the gap, as one system might regress more heavily toward the league average, while another might weight the individual’s performance more heavily. So let’s begin a new projection showdown series, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories. I’m curious which system likes which players better in the various categories and it will help to try to understand why the systems are more bullish or bearish.

First, I’ll start comparing home run projections. To keep playing time projections constant, I calculated each system’s AB/HR forecast and then extrapolated the 600 at-bat home run pace. I then compared those figures. Today, I’ll list and discuss the hitters who THE BAT X is projecting for a better home run rate than Steamer. Then tomorrow we’ll check in on Steamer’s favorites.

Note that I used 400 projected at-bats by THE BAT X as a cutoff, as below that you would just be speculating on playing time. Over the next couple of weeks, I might run similar exercises with the 200-400 AB forecasted players as potential sleepers in the eyes of that projection system.

How many guesses would it take for you to have named Chris Taylor as the hitter THE BAT X was most bullish on for home runs compared to Steamer?! The 32-year-old has played all over the diamond, but will likely find enough at-bats in the outfield to essentially be a full-timer while healthy. His HR/FB rate slipped into single digits for the first time since partial seasons during his first three years in the league. His strikeout rate also rocketed to a career worst, driven by a surge in SwStk%. Suffice to say, this was not a good year.

Interestingly, THE BAT X is forecasting a slightly higher strikeout rate than Steamer, but a significantly higher ISO. THE BAT X is actually highest among all projection systems in ISO forecast and home run total. The projection system uses Statcast data, and I see Taylor’s Barrel% was identical to his mark in 2021, when he posted the third highest HR/FB rate of his career, and second highest over a full season. Furthermore, his HardHit% was nearly identical as well to last year and above his career mark. So it would seem that he deserved much better than a single digit HR/FB rate and THE BAT X is betting on a big rebound.

Wow, pretty shocking to see such disagreement on Mike Trout! Trout has always been a fly ball hitter in his career, but he took that tendency to new heights in 2022 by setting a new career high. We don’t have batted ball distribution projections published, but it’s possible THE BAT X is forecasting Trout to hold onto more of his FB% gains than Steamer is. Like Taylor above, it’s definitely not the strikeout rate, as THE BAT X is projecting the highest strikeout rate among all projection systems. It seems that much of the difference isn’t Steamer vs THE BAT X, but Steamer vs all projection systems! It is projecting the lowest ISO among them all, by far, and the highest AB/HR rate. I’m not entirely sure why Steamer is so pessimistic here, but it’s pretty clear that if you use fantasy values derived from Steamer projections in your drafts/auctions, you will not be rostering Trout!

Matt Chapman seemingly had a normal year, hitting the same number of home runs in about the same number of at-bats as in 2021, but he did significantly cut down on his strikeout rate. This time THE BAT X is projecting a slightly lower strikeout rate than Steamer, who is once again most pessimistic among all systems. There’s nothing that jumps out to me on the Statcast side that would hint at THE BAT X’s optimism, which has him improving his AB/HR rate and increasing his ISO. I did expect the move out of Oakland to a much friendlier park for home runs would have boosted his power, but perhaps it’ll come the year later in 2023.

Amazingly, this is the fifth time in seven seasons that Kyle Schwarber has posted a HR/FB rate between 24% and 24.5%. Talk about consistency! His Barrel% did spike to a new career high to an elite 20.1%, while his HardHit% also jumped. Furthermore, his FB% rocketed above 50% for the first time, well above his last couple of years and his career average. His AB/HR is going to be partly driven on how much of his FB% gain the projection systems think he’ll hold. Steamer is the pessimist once again, with the lowest ISO forecast. What’s funny here is every single projection forecasts a strikeout rate bewteen 28.3% and 28.9%, and yet just once in his career, his 2015 debut, has he posted a strikeout rate between 28% and 29%. Of course, his career average stands at 28.3%, but he has always been well above or below that mark.

Enrique Hernández?! He’s not a player you typically head into a draft hoping to roster! Like a lot of hitters, his power disappeared last year, as his HR/FB rate fell to just 4.8%, the first time it slid into single digits since his small sample 2014 debut. But, his Barrel% wasn’t out of line with his history and his maxEV was very healthy at 112.3 MPH. So it looked like a fairly typical year, but the fly balls simply didn’t leave the field. THE BAT X is clearly betting on a bigger rebound than Steamer is, as it’s the most optimistic of any of the systems.

Taylor Ward was one of April’s biggest surprises, and he continued his torrid hitting in May, ending the month with 10 homers. He cooled off significantly after that before getting hot again in September and October. All in all, he ended up with a near identical HR/FB rate and ISO to 2021, but an increased walk rate and BABIP fueled a strong offensive performance. His Barrel% jumped to 12.1%, his maxEV increased to 112.6 MPH, and he posted the highest FB% of his career since his 2018 debut. THE BAT X is buying Ward, and more, as it’s actually forecasting a career best ISO, while Steamer is the lowest among projection systems in forecasted ISO. While he doesn’t figure to stand out anywhere, he could contribute solidly in multiple categories to quietly be a valuable fantasy asset.

What on Earth happened to Nick Castellanos?! After back-to-back HR/FB rates around the 23% mark, he slipped below 10% for the first time since 2015. He even posted a below league average ISO, which is just shocking. Unlike most of the others on this list, his Barrel% actually collapsed, falling to the lowest mark since it’s been tracked, though his maxEV remained stable. His LD% fell, while his IFFB% surged to a career high, so something was truly up last year. Heading into his age 31 season, was it just a fluke and he’ll fully rebound or was this a red flag that his offense is on the way down? Even though every projection system is forecasting a rebound, with THE BAT X the most optimistic, all the projections are still below his previous levels, especially his power. So the projections are staying conservative. He seems like a potential bargain at the draft table depending on how cheap he ends up.

After a late start to the season recovering from major surgery, Ronald Acuña Jr. endured the worst offensive performance of his career. Unfortunately, the projection systems don’t know about his injury and that his recovery likely affected his results. That also means that there’s no way of knowing whether his performance will be permanently stunted or an extra year removed from the surgery is enough to get him back to pre-2022 levels. So we’re all taking guesses here, with THE BAT X the most bullish of all. Once again, the projection systems are still playing slightly conservatively, as even this rebound wouldn’t quite take him back to peak levels in his young career. Still, he’d get back to going 30/30, so he could get right back to being an elite fantasy asset again.