Updates

• I quickly reran the rankings with a big boost to Sean Bouchard’s and Estevan Florial’s playing time.

Outfield Overview

The outfield position allows a fantasy manager to a certain player at all points of the draft. Early speed, late speed. Early power late power. Also, there is always a balanced player available.

The big oh-no moment happens around the 90th-ranked outfielder is that strong-side platoons start.  There are around 20 players with at least dual eligibility but that still leaves about 70 good full-timers to draft. In a 12-team, five-outfielder league, the total needed is 60, so the starters are covered, and most of the bench bats. It’s when a league is 15-team or deeper, platoon bats come into play.

With each additional revision, I will expand the list beyond 110 guys and include more writeups. I will put all of the changes here at the beginning so there is no reason to go searching the article for them.

Changelog

• 3/20/2024 – Possibly the last ranking.
• 3/11/2024 – Reranked a few guys but not much of a change
• 2/23/2024 – Boost to Sean Bouchard’s and Estevan Florial’s playing time
• 2/13/2024 – Jorge Soler and Jurickson Profar signed.
• 2/8/2024 – Reworked playing time on many guys and wrote a few more evaluations.
• 1/31/2024 – Added new projections to my base evaluation.
• 1/22/2024 – Added writeups on a few players and added a few more prospects.
• 1/15/2024 – Added about a dozen players and included a few more player writeups.
• 1/8/2024 – Expanded outfield list. Note changes for three traded players and Hernandez signing. Added another tier on part-time players.
• 1/4/2024 – Harrison Bader signed and a new tier added.
• 1/4/2024 – First Release

Ranking Methodology

• ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
• $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
• ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
• 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

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Is your roster a little topsy-turvy? Do you have most of your value standing on the in-field dirt, waiting out in the bullpen, or just about one season away from being in the big leagues? You know you have to fill all of those outfield spots too, right? Maybe you do have an outfielder, literally one outfielder, and he’s a good one. Well, that’s nice, but you’re still going to need at least four more. Part of the challenge of playing Ottoneu comes from the fact that much of your competition is in the same boat, they need cheap outfielders too. You’ll need to be smart about it, but you can find valuable outfielders who cost next to nothing. When it’s time to go to the auction before the season begins, mark these outfielders and hope you can sneak in and out, only paying a few dollars or less.

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There’s no such thing as a playing time lock, but…

Luis Rengifo, LAA
Avg Salary: $5
ATC Projected PA: 533

This switch-hitting 27-year-old had a breakout year in 2022 when he stepped into the batter’s box 511 times and hit 17 home runs while slashing .264/.294/.429. He walked a lot more in 2023. His low 3.3% BB% in 2022 jumped to 9.2% in 2023. He repeated his .264 batting average in 2023 but improved the rest of his slash-line with a .339 OBP and a .444 slugging percentage. His approach changed, he stopped swinging so much and dropped his contact rate out of the zone. That came at the detriment of his in-zone contact rate, but getting on base with more passivity allowed him to score 10 more runs for his team in a smaller amount of plate appearances (445). Rengifo’s ATC projection suggests his slash line could regress (.256/.315/.420), but his playing time looks solid. Angel’s beat writer Jeff Fletcher reported Rengifo could be the leadoff hitter in 2024 and that would certainly bring his production up a tick:

Ron Washington gave us his *current* lineup thinking today…

1 Rengifo/Moniak
2 Schanuel
3 Trout
4 Rendon
5 Ward
6 Drury
7 O’Hoppe
8 Adell/Hicks
9 Neto

He changed his mind on Schanuel leading off because he wants more speed. All of this subject to further change, obviously.

— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) February 22, 2024

Rengifo is one of the more expensive targets in this article, he’s rostered in 76.1% of FanGraphs points leagues. He has positional flexibility (2B/SS/3B/OF) and most of what I’ve written above has been well noticed by fantasy leaguers. If you’re lucky, and you can snag Rengifo for under the $4 average, you will have an excellent value.

Mark Canha, DET
Avg Salary: $3
Projected PA: 508

Canha has been a steady contributor for fantasy teams in the past few seasons. Last season, he finished with 4.32 points/per game and was only rostered in around 33% of leagues. In November, I calculated points league replacement level at 4.33 points per game for outfielders in 12-team leagues. Canha went over that mark in both 2022 (4.64 P/G) and 2021 (5.17 P/G) and finished the season at 5.27 points per game in the 204 plate appearances he accumulated with the Brewers. In each of the last three seasons (2021-2023), he played at least 139 games. Canha is an accumulator, so don’t get too excited about his individual stats. His batting average has outperformed his expected average in the past two seasons, and in the past three seasons, his slugging percentage has outperformed his expected slugging percentage. What can we expect from him in 2024? Regression, but only some. Here’s Canha’s ATC projection below his 2021-2023 stats:

Andrew McCutchen, PIT
Avg Salary: $3
ATC Projected PA: 459

It seems odd to categorize the 37-year-old veteran McCutchen as a “Playing Time Lock”, but who else is going to DH for the Pirates? If he can rebound from last season’s Achilles tear and stay healthy, McCutchen could certainly be a reliable, above-replacement level player in Ottoneu points leagues. Ready to read something crazy? McCutchen has never, not once, slumped below the 4.33 points per game mark that I hold as a replacement-level outfielder. Ok, ok, he did record 4.34 points per game in 2022, but that was a career worst. Last season, in 473 plate appearances, McCutchen turned in a 5.24 points per game season. He’s not a lock for playing time as he heads into his age 37 season, but he certainly benefits from the DH spot and could easily hit 10 home runs while slugging close to .400. I wouldn’t count on anything more than that. The graph below clearly shows what happens to a ball player’s production as they go through the inevitable:

If that graph scares you away, no one can blame you. Smart fantasy players aren’t betting on McCutchen taking a step forward, but holding just above the replacement level line is a realistic expectation. The full picture should be taken into consideration when someone else bids $2 during an auction draft. Going up to $3 might not be worth it.
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Shared Playing Time Puzzle Pieces

Willi Castro, MIN
Avg Salary: $3
Projected PA: 445

The 33 bases Castro stole in 2023 will make him a target in all formats, but if your league-mates are devaluing his uncertain playing time, you can sneak in and take a chance. The Twins have a lot of injury risks and Castro can fill in nearly any position in a pinch. Both his batting average and on-base percentage ticked up between 2021 and 2022 and then again in 2023 and that was fueled by improved plate discipline:

While his hard-hit rate did not change much between 2022 and 2023, his barrel rate did, moving from 3.5% in 2022 to 6.8% in 2023. To recap, Castro gets on base more often than the average hitter, then he steals bases. He has begun finding the barrel more often by finding better pitches to swing at. That sounds good to me. I’m buying in.

LaMonte Wade Jr., SFG
Avg Salary: $4
Projected PA: 470

Even with the ultimate tinker-er in Gabe Kapler, Wade still accumulated 519 plate appearances in 135 games. Wade, a left-handed hitter, actually hit better (.269) against left-handed pitching than he did against right-handed pitching (.254) in 2023. However, his OBP and SLG were much better against righties. Last season’s .262/.373/.417 overall slash line was far and wide better than his .221/.305/.359 line from 2022 and seeing more reps likely contributed to the advancement. FanGraphs writer Kyle Kishimoto wrote about potential playing time issues for the Giants in 2024, but it was written before Matt Chapman was signed and J.D. Davis was cut. Now, Wilmer Flores and Wade are likely in a platoon split with Wade on the strong side. 2023’s step forward was good for 4.8 points per game in Ottoneu, above replacement level and worth as much as $2 in 2024.

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Playing Time Gambles

Estevan Florial, CLE
Projected PA: 284

I was excited when I read in Jeff Zimmerman’s late February “Mining the News” that Florial has a chance to become an everyday player:

It might seem obvious, but Guardians hitting coach Chris Valaika was the first to go on record this week and say Myles Straw is competing for his job this spring. Marking him in the lineup every day is no longer a given. Ramón Laureano has plenty of experience in center, but Florial is the one Vogt called “a specimen.”

As of this writing, Florial has a high spring training strikeout rate, of 42.1%, and a high walk rate, of 10.5%. This combination is typical of Florial’s profile as he has an MLB 30.6% K% in 115 at-bats. Still, he’s never been given a chance to gain consistent playing time and I am, at least, interested to see what he can do. It’s probably too little too late as many baseball fans have been waiting for Florial to show off his tools for too long and have given up. It was over three years ago that Eric Longenhagen wrote this in his analysis of Florial as a prospect in the Yankees system:

I’ll gladly eat crow if Florial ends up being a consistent big league hitter for a half decade because that’ll mean we’ll have gotten to see his electric tools (he has one of the best throwing arms I’ve ever seen), but I don’t think that’s going to happen.

However, for $1 wouldn’t you like to see if the raw power Florial has been known for can be tweaked just enough to actually connect with the bat for something like 10 dingers? 10 dingers for a dollar here! 10 dingers for a dollar! It’s a gamble, but it’s certainly within the range of outcomes should Florial out-compete his teammates in spring training.

Aaron Hicks, LAA
Avg Salary: $1
Projected PA: 373

Hicks was a 4.86 points-per-game player last season for the O’s and if he can manage another 90 games in Los Angeles, then he very well could hold that mark. Father time may be coming for his power, but Hicks is still finding the ball in the zone and has shown a resurgence in the past few seasons in both his wOBA and his slugging percentage:

Unfortunately, he’s already had issues with soreness this spring and his projections don’t seem to be buying that he’ll be on the field enough for steady plate appearance totals by the end of the year. To further put a damper on Hicks’ fantasy potential, he outperformed his statcast expected average, wOBA, and slugging percentage in 2023. Perhaps the right approach here is to believe the regression projection systems bake in and hope for a little more. $1 and no more.

As we move into draft season, I will be updating these rankings occasionally, when there is news to justify changes. The original rankings will stay at the bottom of the article to maintain my player notes. The original outfield rankings were posted 1/30 and the most recent update is 2/28.

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The Outfield Part II Preview episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ray Murphy

First Pitch Florida

Strategy Section

• Projections
  • The basics of what goes into generating player projections
  • How should you use projections?
  • Blind spots of projections
    • What does the human eye do better than the computer?
• Pricing Players
  • SGP vs. Z-Scores vs. PVM
• Outfield Player Pool
  • General observations
  • Are there specific stats that you need to get from the OF position?

ATC Undervalued Players

• Outfielders
  • Masataka Yoshida
  • Brandon Nimmo
  • Cedric Mullins
  • Riley Greene
  • Taylor Ward
  • Bryan De La Cruz
  • Jung Hoo Lee 이정후
    • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
  • Austin Hays
  • Sal Frelick

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The Outfield Part I & Utility Only Preview episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Brian Entrekin

Strategy Section

• Snake Draft Strategy
  • General KDS Strategy
  • This year’s KDS Strategy
  • Mapping stats & positions in future rounds
• Outfield Player Pool
  • General observations
  • 3 OF vs 5 OF leagues
  • OF Stars & Scrubs approach?
  • OF Waiver wire viaiblity
• Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
• Are platoon players viable to roster?
  • In which formats?
• Designated Hitter / Utility Only Players
  • Is it worth it to “clog” up your utlilty spot with a utility only player?

ATC Undervalued Players

• Outfielders
  • Yordan Alvarez
  • Michael Harris II
  • Nolan Jones
  • Bryan Reynolds
  • Kyle Schwarber
  • Nick Castellanos
  • George Springer
  • Teoscar Hernandez
  • Anthony Santander
• Utility Only
  • Eloy Jimenez

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Before the holidays, Lucas Kelly ran through his keep or cut decisions in the outfield, part of our ongoing series heading into the keeper deadline on January 31. To catch up with him, Chad Young and I are finally getting around to our entries in the series before we move onto pitchers next week. I’ll run through three players on my bubble and where I think the keep line could be for each of them. All P/G projections are from the 2024 Steamer projections.

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Cedric Mullins OF
Salary: $15
Average Salary: $17.1
2023 P/G: 4.37
Projected 2024 P/G: 4.80

We’re now two years removed from Cedric Mullins’ huge breakout in 2021 and it really seems like that was his high water mark. In the two years since posting a 136 wRC+, that metric has fallen year-over-year to just a point below league average last year. He did struggle through a recurring groin injury that cut into his playing time and definitely affected his ability to use his speed to his advantage. Now we’re left with plenty of questions about how valuable he’ll be moving forward.

There are a few encouraging signs under the hood though each of them is tempered by a red flag. After seeing his ISO drop from .228 during his breakout season to .145 in 2022, he was able to punish the ball more often last year, pushing his ISO back up to .183. That improvement was backed by an improved barrel rate and a batted ball profile that leaned even more heavily into pulled contact in the air. Elevating his batted balls was one of the keys to his success back in ‘21, though he might have gone a little too far last year. His groundball rate was the lowest of his career and nearly half of his batted balls were categorized as fly balls, but the expected wOBA on that elevated contact was nowhere near where it was two years ago.

His sweet spot rate — the rate at which he makes contact at ideal launch angles — was at a three-year low last year. Despite elevating his batted balls on the regular, he was hitting far too many at uncompetitive launch angles or without much power behind them, leading to a ton of weak fly balls.

On the plate discipline side of things, Mullins cut his chase rate to the lowest it’s been since a brief cup of coffee back in 2018 in his first exposure to big league pitching. That helped him post a career-high 9.5% walk rate. Unfortunately, his contact rate also fell three points and the corresponding increase in whiffs drove his strikeout rate up to 22.2%.

The other complicating factor is that the Orioles started to platoon Mullins pretty heavily last year even though his platoon split was pretty even. It’s hard to take that split seriously since he only accumulated 119 plate appearances against left-handed pitching last year but it’s something to monitor, especially with a crowded outfield in Baltimore.

Keep or Cut?
As much as I’d like to dream about Mullins reaching his 2021 heights again, I don’t think he’ll be worth $15 this year. Steamer has him bouncing back in 2024 with a .317 wOBA which would be higher than what he posted each of the last two years. Still, that’s more like a $8-$10 outfielder, not the $20 outfielder he was in 2021. I’m gonna cut and see where he goes in the draft because I think a lot of people will be overlooking him due to his struggles.

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Seiya Suzuki OF
Salary: $18 and $24
Average Salary: $21.8
2023 P/G: 5.76
Projected 2024 P/G: 5.53

In his second season stateside, Seiya Suzuki improved across nearly every significant offensive category. But simply looking at his full season stats hides some of the ups-and-downs he experienced during the season and I think some of that narrative is affecting how he’s valued heading into this upcoming season. Here’s his rolling 20-game wOBA from last year:

He had an early slump, dealt with a few minor injuries, and really slumped in June and July and was finally benched for a short time in early August. But from August 9th onwards — the day he returned to the lineup full-time — he was the second best hitter in baseball, a hot streak that salvaged his full season stat line. So which version of Suzuki is the real one?

As Ben Clemens laid out in the article linked above, the adjustments Suzuki made in August were specific to his approach and directly addressed the reasons why he was struggling in the first place. He was specifically hunting breaking balls located in the zone while continuing to wallop the fastballs he saw up the middle and to the opposite field. It was a change to his approach that got him out of the middle ground between trying to adjust to hard and soft stuff. As Clemens put it, “This isn’t some fluke of soft line drives falling in all over the place or grounders finding holes in the infield. He’s just pummeling the ball, and doing it in a way that suits his game.”

It’s possible some of the hesitation around drafting Suzuki is related to his bearish Steamer projection. It sees him taking a slight step back in 2024, with a .345 wOBA that sits right in between what he’s accomplished over the last two years. But remember, his .358 wOBA from last year included those two significant slumps during the first half of the season. With another season of exposure to major league pitching under his belt and the assurance that he was able to make significant adjustments to his approach on the fly, I’m thinking he’s got a good shot at beating that projection this year.

Keep or Cut?
I’m extremely happy to keep at $18 and I’m trying to find room in my budget to keep him at $24. I’d think I’d be comfortable keeping him at up to $26 or even $28 depending on the league context and cap situation.

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Masataka Yoshida OF
Salary: $20
Average Salary: $23.4
2023 P/G: 5.16
Projected 2024 P/G: 5.63

When Masataka Yoshida made the leap from NPB to the majors, the biggest question was whether or not his low-strikeout, high-walk approach would translate against big league pitching. It’s a little complicated but I’d say his rookie year was a modest success; he posted a 109 wRC+ though his overall value was seriously hurt by his lead glove in left field. His defense isn’t a concern for fantasy baseball, but even his offensive production had some curious red flags.

Through the end of June, he was posting a 129 wRC+ with a good 8.7% walk rate and a great 11.3% strikeout rate. More importantly, he was hitting for power and generally looked like he had made the transition without much fuss. From July 1 through the end of the season, he took just seven walks total, his strikeout rate spiked to 17.0%, and his power output dried up a bit. The contours of his season look pretty ugly once you pull up his 20-game rolling averages.

Even though his plate discipline fell apart in July, he was still producing at the plate. Once the calendar flipped to August, that production dried up and he slumped all the way through the end of the season. Looking under the hood, it really seems like he started pressing as soon as he started to struggle. His patient approach went right out the window and he started aggressively swinging at everything.

His overall swing and chase rates spiked during the second half as he tried to swing his way out of his troubles. That led to a collapse of his walk rate and a corresponding spike in strikeout rate. The good thing is that his contact rate stayed relatively unchanged. He wasn’t generating as much power with his swing during his slump, but he was still putting the ball in play regularly.

Keep or Cut?
Were his second half struggles indicative of what to expect moving forward or was it just a particularly bad slump compounded by an aggressive turn to try and break out of it? Steamer seems to think it was just a blip and is projecting a pretty significant improvement in 2024. I’m leaning towards believing in the projection but there’s still some risk involved here. $20 feels right without leaning too heavily into that risk. I’m not excited to keep him at that salary but I don’t think I’d be able to get him any cheaper in the draft.

We hit a bit of a lull over the holidays, but we are back in full swing, continuing our series of tough keep/cut decisions as we get closer to the Ottoneu keeper deadline (1/31). Lucas covered his decisions back in December, now here are mine.

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The month of June was an interesting time for the playoff-bound Orioles. When the month concluded, two of their brightest stars, Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander, had wRC+ marks below 100 for the month. But the story of the Orioles in 2023 isn’t isolated to a few stars. In fact, it’s the opposite. The story of the Orioles 2023 regular season, is a combination of stories from rookies, to established everyday contributors, to veterans who all performed well at various points in the season. When one player was off, another one came out of nowhere to lift the team. Interact with the graph below by clicking on each player’s name to turn their data on and off and visualize the O’s wRC+ production in June:

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As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout”. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Lars Nootbaar | STL  

My Projection: .267/.357/.451, 23 HR, 76 R, 69 RBI, 8 SB in 583 PA

Yep, I’m on the Noot Train. I’m just a sucker for a plate profile like that (0.72 BB/K – 16th highest among hitters with 300 PA, tied with Nolan Arenado). He’s got enough pop to chase down a biiig homer number, too (30+). I thought he was going to be a Wide Awake Sleeper – sleepers on every list, robbing them of any real draft value – but the early Main Event drafts saw him dropping so you can still get him as a reasonable price (ADP 188). He does have 6 SBs in 471 MLB PA, too, so I wonder if he could be a sneaky double-digit guy by taking advantage of the new rules. He is 2-for-2 on the bases in the WBC.

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We’ll wrap up my position player rankings with a look at the outfield.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

NOTE: I’ve included Util-only players in my OF rankings. In general, they’ll be listed at the bottom of whatever tier they’re placed in because of the lack of positional flexibility. In addition, Shohei Ohtani is listed in a tier as if he were only a batter — obviously he provides a ton of value as a pitcher as well and he would be my top ranked player in Ottoneu if I listed his combined value.

In Ottoneu, you’re afforded five starting spots for your outfielders. That creates a situation where the position is simultaneously deep and shallow. The top of the position is filled with superstars but you’ll be able to find solid production all the way down into the middle tiers. There does seem to be a pretty significant drop off once you get 40 deep which means you’ll likely be filling out the last couple of spots in your outfield with flawed players.

Having deep rosters and daily lineups are definitely benefits as you try and find five viable outfielders to start. I’ve found that platoons work especially well at this position. Players like Jesse Winker, Joc Pederson, and Josh Naylor all have much higher value in Ottoneu because you can really squeeze out as much value out of them when they’re facing the platoon advantage. Personally, I like to try and fill at least three of my OF spots with full-time, consistent contributors, and then grab a handful of players I can platoon.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Michael Harris II – I understand the trepidation surrounding Harris. He only played in 43 games above High-A before making the leap up to the big leagues, he really struggled against left-handed pitching, and his surface level plate discipline metrics looked pretty poor in his rookie season. Despite those nits to pick, Harris was a genuine revelation last year. His power surpassed anything he was able to do in the minor leagues and his underlying batted ball peripherals support his newfound power profile. A mid-season swing change after being called up helped him unlock that tool. And the approach at the plate? It too improved as the season went on and he became more settled in at the game’s highest level; he cut his chase rate from around 50% in late-June to just over 35% by the end of the season and improved his in-zone contact rate correspondingly. Those adjustments on the fly as a 21-year-old really speak to his talent, coachability, and drive to succeed.

Teoscar Hernández – It feels like a lot of the concerns surrounding Hernández involve his move to Seattle where he’ll play his home games in the pitcher’s paradise that is T-Mobile Park. Just comparing the park factors, his new home isn’t nearly as bad as its reputation for right-handed batters; Rogers Centre has a factor of 106 for right-handed home runs to 102 for T-Mobile Park. The real issue for batters in Seattle is finding hits that don’t fly over the fences. Hernández certainly has the power to overcome whatever ballpark he calls home anyway. His exit velocities and hard hit and barrel rates all sit in the top 5% of baseball and have for the last three seasons. Perhaps you’re looking at his 129 wRC+, a three-year low since his breakout in 2020. Hernández strained an oblique early in the season and missed about a month on the IL, but he didn’t really get right until a few weeks after being activated. From June 1 onwards, he posted a 146 wRC+ with 23 of his 25 home runs. That beat his career-best mark he posted in 2020 and indicates he was just as productive last year once he got healthy.

Hunter Renfroe – At this point in his career, Renfroe’s power should be unquestioned. He’s blasted 153 home runs over the last six seasons and possesses a career isolated power of .247. The reason I’m so high on him is because he’s seemingly figured out the swing-and-miss issues that plagued him earlier in his career. Over the last two seasons, he’s cut his strikeout rate from 28% during his first five seasons to just under 23%. The biggest difference has been a significant improvement to his overall contact rate. He’s also gotten a little more swing happy with that change in approach, which has helped him put more balls in play with his better bat-to-ball skills. With his power, that’s definitely a good thing and it’s a big reason why his wRC+ jumped up to a career-high 124 last year.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Randy Arozarena – Arozarena is almost certainly a better 4×4 or 5×5 player than he is an Ottoneu contributor. His power and speed combo is perfectly suited for those formats that reward stolen bases. In the FanGraphs points format, his speed isn’t nearly as valuable a tool and his power actually isn’t all that impressive. For one, more than half of his batted balls were put on the ground last year. Second, when he does elevate, his hard hit and barrel rates are merely average; he outperformed his expected slugging by 63 points in 2022. Third, he’s notoriously streaky, with significant periods of abysmal production throughout a season. If I’m paying more than $20 for an outfielder, I want a little more consistency and a higher ceiling than Arozarena can provide.

Steven Kwan – The argument against Kwan is somewhat similar to Arozarena; he’s a better 4×4 or 5×5 player than he is a points league accumulator. Granted, Kwan (5.28 P/G) just outproduced Arozarena (5.22 P/G) in his rookie season, but leagues that value runs, average, and stolen bases are where Kwan shines. In Ottoneu, Kwan’s contact-heavy approach leaves too much to chance on all those balls he puts in play. That was the story over his first two months in the big leagues where he put up a .259 BABIP and a 105 wRC+. Without any power to speak of, he’s just too reliant on getting hits to fall to produce points consistently when his batted balls are falling into gloves instead.

Oscar Gonzalez – Gonzalez came out of nowhere to post a 122 wRC+ in 91 games last year and was a postseason hero for the Guardians. The power was just a continuation of a breakout season in 2021 where he blasted 31 home runs across two minor league levels. But the plate discipline leaves so much to be desired. His 48.4% chase rate ranked third-highest among all batters with at least 300 plate appearances. It’s a testament to his bat-to-ball ability in two-strike counts that his strikeout rate sat below 20%. But such an aggressive approach means that he’s walking a knife’s edge, and if all those swings start coming up empty, he could find himself cratering.