Each year, before the season, I try to run a set of projected standings for my leagues. It’s not super difficult, though you do have to set aside probably about one hour per league to set it up. But once you have these projections, they can be extremely useful in figuring out your strengths and weaknesses, and giving yourself a realistic outlook for your team.

The specifics below are based on ottoneu, but the theory can be applied to any format.
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As with Joe’s earlier post, these ottoneu predictions specifically reference the FGPts scoring system. Let’s get down to it!

1) No catcher will score 800 points, and two or fewer will score over 600 points.

At face value, this one might not seem so bold, but keep in mind that at least one catcher has scored over 800 points each of the past few seasons, and several over 600. The position is always on the verge of falling under these thresholds, though, and this prediction is a bet that this could be the year. Perhaps Buster Posey underperforms a bit, Jonathan Lucroy doesn’t play such a heavy schedule of games, and some of the middle-tier options split playing time more than expected. We’ve talked before about how catching is a deep but very flat position in ottoneu, and this would be further proof of the fungibility of a position where a dozen players can all give you similar production.

2) Zack Cozart will be a top 10 shortstop in FGPts.

If Cozart keeps up his 50 game breakout, he could make this happen, no problem. But that’s a huge “if,” considering he nearly doubled his career ISO, and jumped 70 points in wOBA from 2014. Here’s hoping Cozart’s short-lived mission to “crush the inside part of the ball” pays dividends in 2016!
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Episode 3 of OttoGraphs is here and we have a special guest- Chris Mitchell, creator of KATOH! We discuss the development of KATOH and the types of players the prospect model prefers, and Chris was also gracious enough to answer some questions we had about some specific prospects including Alex Verdugo, Clayton Blackburn, Blake Snell, and Joey Gallo.

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics, and we can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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These predictions are specifically based on Ottoneu FGpt scoring. Perhaps “Bold” isn’t defined clearly enough, but my hope is that this is structured in such a way that my thought process can provide some benefit (even if the predictions seem a little extreme at face value.)

1. Domingo Santana will be a top 15 OF.

Nelson Cruz, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte, Adam Jones…  If you looked at our FGpt OF rankings, these are the 15-20^th ranked outfielders. Which is to say, I think Domingo Santana could be better than all of them (and the rest of those listed below him in our rankings) in 2016. The Brewers do not look like a good team (yet…) so – unless he gets injured – expect a full slate of playing time, a great home park, and lots of power (three things that are gold in linear weights scoring.) The obvious hole in his game is the strikeouts (34% in 2015), but if he can reign that in at all, the upside is tremendous.

2. John Jaso will be a viable 2nd OF

The obvious issue has been playing time (70, 99, 70 games played over the past 3 seasons), but given that he slated to play 1B, I feel fairly confident he will play more games than he has in any of the past 3 seasons.  If he does, he could easily produce value which is expected of many #2 OF in FGpts. The Pirates’ outfield is set, so don’t expect him to retain eligibility for 2017, but he should be incredibly useful for this season. Alex Gordon, Starling Marte, Adam Jones, Christian Yelich, Charlie Blackmon, and Yoenis Cespedes are all projected to be within 5 points of wOBA of Jaso. Those players will cost $18-$25 apiece. If he can stay on the field, Jaso has a good chance to be in that tier, and you can get him for about a third of that price.

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For our second episode we discuss ottoneu auction tips and strategies.

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics, and we can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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Co-ownership. In my 10 years of fantasy experience, it was something I’d never tried before, nor had I given it much thought. It always seemed like a chore, and (given that I tend to have strong opinions) I assumed that if I ever did co-own a team I would end up “running” the squad, while my counterpart would be left to sit on his hands. It just didn’t seem like much fun – for me or my counterpart – or like an experience that would be any different from Ottoneu leagues I had already participated in.

Until recently.

Fellow Rotographs contributor Trey Baughn and myself were paired up in a newly formed Ottoneu league. Neither of us are experts on the topic of co-ownership, but I wanted to talk through several observations we have quickly realized in our month long trial run.

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Episode 1 of “OttoGraphs”, the ottoneu-centric fantasy baseball podcast, is here! This weekly (or possibly more frequent) podcast will cover all things ottoneu, from auction strategy, valuation tools, in season tips/tricks, and offseason trade/keeper strategy.

The first segment of this episode serves as our introduction, and touches briefly on what the four of us (Joe, Justin, Tom, and Trey) love about ottoneu and how we got our start with it.

We apologize in advance for the untimely nature of our second segment’s content, but even though the Keeper deadline in ottoneu has come and gone we thought it would still be instructive to keep this segment away from the cutting room floor.

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics, and we can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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I’ve recently completed two deep Ottoneu minor league drafts and am reminded just how difficult successful “prospecting” can be.  Regardless of how informed you may feel heading into an MiLB draft, you’re often left selecting players based upon small sample sizes, second hand reports, maybe a few brief videos and, as much as we want to deny it, a bias towards “scouting the stat lines”.  At the end of the day you’re making a decision using limited information that could have serious long term consequences for your dynasty team.

Prospecting is actually a lot like another critical business skill: hiring good employees.  The inputs might be a little different (scouting reports might be job references, batting practice videos might be one hour interviews, and stats, however limited, might be the resume sitting on your desk), but the challenge is the same: make an important, timely decision based on limited information, first impressions, and gut feel.

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Below is the prospects installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.

Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Third Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Outfield/Relief Pitcher/Starting Pitcher

In Ottoneu, the prospect game is a bit different than in other fantasy leagues.  Ottoneu is not quite a dynasty, where you can stash players forever. But it’s a bit deeper than your average keeper league, and you can reap substantial benefit over a few years if you can score a hit on a top prospect. The rankings below reflect this dynamic – each of us has ranked our top 50 prospects according to a combination of his talent, proximity to MLB, and risk. As with our positional rankings, we’ve included each of our individual rankings, and a composite ranking that represents the average value we place on each player. Unlike our positional ranks, though, we’ve simply ranked our prospects from 1-50. It’s up to you (and your league’s market!) to determine how much of your budget you want to invest in prospects, depending on your team’s situation.

Only players who received a ranking from at least one of the four of us were included. “NR” indicates that the player was not ranked in one of our individual top 50 prospect lists. Consider this your early, subject to change, cheat sheet when you’re determining which prospects to target in your auction.

We can be reached on twitter as follows:

Trey Baughn
Joe Douglas
Tom Oltarzewski
Justin Vibber

Key:
AVG. – The average of our four rankings (for the purposes of this exercise “NR” was calculated as a ranking of 55)
Split – Difference from highest rank to lowest rank

2016 Ottoneu FGpts Rankings – Prospects

Name	Team	Pos	Justin	Joe	Tom	Trey	AVG.	Split
Corey Seager	Dodgers	SS	1	1	1	1	1	0
Lucas Giolito	Nationals	SP	3	5	2	2	3	3
J.P. Crawford	Phillies	SS	2	4	4	3	3.25	2
Nomar Mazara	Rangers	OF	8	2	3	5	4.5	6
Byron Buxton	Twins	OF	5	10	6	4	6.25	6
Julio Urias	Dodgers	SP	4	6	8	8	6.5	4
Steven Matz	Mets	SP	15	3	7	6	7.75	12
Tyler Glasnow	Pirates	SP	6	9	14	11	10	8
A.J. Reed	Astros	1B	14	8	10	9	10.25	6
Joey Gallo	Rangers	OF	18	13	5	7	10.75	13
Yoan Moncada	Red Sox	2B	10	19	9	10	12	10
Jose Berrios	Twins	SP	11	11	17	13	13	6
Alex Reyes	Cardinals	SP	9	17	18	12	14	9
Orlando Arcia	Brewers	SS	7	12	28	15	15.5	21
Trea Turner	Nationals	SS	13	14	13	23	15.75	10
Lewis Brinson	Rangers	OF	20	15	16	16	16.75	5
Dansby Swanson	Braves	SS	12	23	23	17	18.75	11
Blake Snell	Rays	SP	23	7	33	14	19.25	26
Jose De Leon	Dodgers	SP	29	16	21	20	21.5	13
Brendan Rodgers	Rockies	SS	25	34	12	19	22.5	22
Rafael Devers	Red Sox	3B	17	26	27	22	23	10
Andrew Benintendi	Red Sox	OF	24	27	24	18	23.25	9
Bradley Zimmer	Indians	OF	35	20	19	21	23.75	16
Franklin Barreto	Athletics	SS	19	25	20	33	24.25	14
Nick Williams	Phillies	OF	33	28	11	26	24.5	22
Austin Meadows	Pirates	OF	27	21	29	25	25.5	8
Brett Phillips	Brewers	OF	28	22	22	34	26.5	12
Manuel Margot	Padres	OF	16	24	32	39	27.75	23
Alex Bregman	Astros	SS	21	32	34	28	28.75	13
Aaron Judge	Yankees	OF	45	31	15	27	29.5	30
Jesse Winker	Reds	OF	31	29	31	29	30	2
Trevor Story	Rockies	SS	NR	18	26	24	30.75	8
Sean Manaea	Athletics	SP	38	30	30	31	32.25	8
Max Kepler	Twins	OF	36	33	35	30	33.5	6
David Dahl	Rockies	OF	34	39	25	40	34.5	15
Gary Sanchez	Yankees	C	41	35	36	35	36.75	6
Josh Bell	Pirates	1B	48	37	37	32	38.5	16
Tim Anderson	White Sox	SS	22	49	38	47	39	27
Sean Newcomb	Braves	SP	30	44	42	41	39.25	14
Clint Frazier	Indians	OF	44	42	40	43	42.25	4
Ozhaino Albies	Braves	SS	26	38	NR	NR	43.5	12
Ryan Mcmahon	Rockies	3B	43	45	43	45	44	2
Victor Robles	Nationals	OF	50	40	39	49	44.5	11
Gleyber Torres	Cubs	SS	32	46	NR	46	44.75	14
Alex Verdugo	Dodgers	OF	42	36	48	NR	45.25	12
Robert Stephenson	Reds	SP	46	NR	45	36	45.5	10
Hunter Renfroe	Padres	OF	NR	NR	44	38	48	6
Jose Peraza	Reds	2B	37	47	NR	NR	48.5	10
Dylan Bundy	Orioles	SP	NR	43	41	NR	48.5	2
Jorge Mateo	Yankees	SS	40	NR	47	NR	49.25	7
Jonathan Gray	Rockies	SP	47	NR	NR	42	49.75	5
Brandon Drury	Diamondbacks	2B/3B	NR	NR	46	44	50	2
Cody Reed	Reds	SP	NR	NR	NR	37	50.5	0
Javier Guerra	Padres	SS	39	NR	NR	NR	51	0
Anthony Alford	Blue Jays	OF	NR	41	NR	NR	51.5	0
Francis Martes	Astros	SP	NR	50	NR	48	52	2
Anderson Espinoza	Red Sox	SP	NR	48	NR	NR	53.25	0
Jeff Hoffman	Rockies	SP	49	NR	NR	NR	53.5	0
Willy Adames	Rays	SS	NR	NR	49	NR	53.5	0
Carson Fulmer	White Sox	SP	NR	NR	50	NR	53.75	0
Dillon Tate	Rangers	RP	NR	NR	NR	50	53.75	0

Last week, I participated in a slow auction to kick off a 4×4 ottoneu league. I have done (and generally love) slow DRAFTS many times in the past, and those are pretty straight forward. They tend to work just like normal drafts, though the longer time between picks often leads to better research and fewer reaches, panic moves, etc.

But this slow auction thing – that was a whole new ballgame.

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