2016 Ottoneu FGpts Rankings – SP
Below is the Starting Pitcher installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.
Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Third Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Outfield/Relief Pitcher
In the context of Ottoneu, perhaps rankings are a misnomer, because you really want to know the dollar value each player is worth. We’ve included this information for our benefit. In all, these rankings should help to give you a spread of four dollar values for each player, as well as a comparison to average prices (post-arbitration, pre-cut deadline) within the Ottoneu FGpts universe. Each player’s Ottoneu eligibility (5GS, 10 appearances) is included as well, though players are ranked at their most valuable position. If you have questions on a specific ranking, or a question for a specific ranker, feel free to let us know in the comments.
Consider this your very early, subject to change, Ottoneu pricing cheat sheet.
We can be reached on twitter as follows:
Trey Baughn
Joe Douglas
Tom Oltarzewski
Justin Vibber
Key:
Split – Difference from highest to lowest $ value
Otto.– Average price across Ottoneu FGpts leagues
AVG. – Average $ value from the four of us
(+/-) – Difference between Ottoneu average price and our average $ value
Some Takeaways:
| Name | Justin | Joe | Tom | Trey | Split | Otto. | AVG. | (+/-) | |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | $67 | $67 | $76 | $69 | $9 | $57 | $70 | $13 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | $46 | $52 | $57 | $46 | $11 | $37 | $50 | $13 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | $42 | $50 | $52 | $44 | $10 | $38 | $47 | $9 |
| 4 | Jose Fernandez | $41 | $42 | $50 | $41 | $9 | $28 | $44 | $16 |
| 5 | Jake Arrieta | $38 | $42 | $42 | $52 | $14 | $21 | $44 | $23 |
| 6 | Corey Kluber | $35 | $37 | $42 | $35 | $7 | $26 | $37 | $11 |
| 7 | Stephen Strasburg | $36 | $37 | $40 | $32 | $8 | $38 | $36 | -$2 |
| 8 | Madison Bumgarner | $36 | $36 | $36 | $34 | $2 | $37 | $36 | -$1 |
| 9 | Carlos Carrasco | $34 | $37 | $31 | $33 | $6 | $14 | $34 | $20 |
| 10 | David Price | $29 | $32 | $37 | $34 | $8 | $37 | $33 | -$4 |
| 11 | Jacob deGrom | $31 | $31 | $33 | $31 | $2 | $18 | $32 | $13 |
| 12 | Felix Hernandez | $29 | $29 | $35 | $32 | $6 | $47 | $31 | -$16 |
| 13 | Matt Harvey | $30 | $32 | $29 | $33 | $4 | $25 | $31 | $6 |
| 14 | Noah Syndergaard | $29 | $32 | $34 | $25 | $9 | $12 | $30 | $18 |
| 15 | Gerrit Cole | $28 | $30 | $32 | $30 | $4 | $23 | $30 | $7 |
| 16 | Chris Archer | $26 | $33 | $31 | $25 | $8 | $20 | $29 | $9 |
| 17 | Tyson Ross | $27 | $29 | $31 | $28 | $4 | $14 | $29 | $15 |
| 18 | Jon Lester | $27 | $26 | $31 | $29 | $5 | $24 | $28 | $5 |
| 19 | Dallas Keuchel | $22 | $26 | $26 | $28 | $6 | $16 | $26 | $10 |
| 20 | Zack Greinke | $25 | $25 | $27 | $23 | $4 | $36 | $25 | -$11 |
| 21 | Francisco Liriano | $23 | $25 | $24 | $24 | $2 | $11 | $24 | $13 |
| 22 | Johnny Cueto | $23 | $21 | $23 | $16 | $7 | $23 | $21 | -$3 |
| 23 | Yu Darvish | $15 | $29 | $24 | $14 | $15 | $19 | $21 | $2 |
| 24 | Carlos Martinez | $19 | $17 | $21 | $17 | $4 | $10 | $19 | $8 |
| 25 | Danny Salazar | $18 | $18 | $17 | $17 | $1 | $11 | $18 | $6 |
| 26 | Adam Wainwright | $15 | $17 | $21 | $16 | $6 | $22 | $17 | -$5 |
| 27 | Masahiro Tanaka | $12 | $16 | $22 | $16 | $10 | $22 | $17 | -$5 |
| 28 | Michael Pineda | $12 | $14 | $16 | $14 | $4 | $9 | $14 | $5 |
| 29 | Yordano Ventura | $12 | $12 | $17 | $14 | $5 | $12 | $14 | $2 |
| 30 | Garrett Richards | $16 | $13 | $13 | $12 | $4 | $11 | $14 | $3 |
| 31 | Gio Gonzalez | $14 | $13 | $13 | $14 | $1 | $22 | $14 | -$8 |
| 32 | Sonny Gray | $12 | $16 | $9 | $16 | $7 | $20 | $13 | -$6 |
| 33 | Marcus Stroman | $8 | $14 | $17 | $13 | $9 | $9 | $13 | $4 |
| 34 | Jeff Samardzija | $16 | $12 | $14 | $10 | $6 | $16 | $13 | -$3 |
| 35 | Cole Hamels | $8 | $12 | $15 | $14 | $7 | $31 | $12 | -$19 |
| 36 | Raisel Iglesias | $9 | $13 | $15 | $11 | $6 | $5 | $12 | $7 |
| 37 | Steven Matz | $12 | $11 | $10 | $12 | $2 | $6 | $11 | $5 |
| 38 | Hisashi Iwakuma | $8 | $12 | $14 | $10 | $6 | $12 | $11 | -$1 |
| 39 | Michael Wacha | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $3 | $15 | $11 | -$5 |
| 40 | Drew Smyly | $11 | $10 | $11 | $9 | $2 | $9 | $10 | $1 |
| 41 | Jaime Garcia | $10 | $10 | $10 | $11 | $1 | $5 | $10 | $5 |
| 42 | Lance McCullers | $11 | $11 | $9 | $9 | $2 | $7 | $10 | $3 |
| 43 | Scott Kazmir | $12 | $10 | $10 | $6 | $6 | $9 | $10 | $0 |
| 44 | Jose Quintana | $8 | $10 | $4 | $13 | $9 | $10 | $9 | -$2 |
| 45 | Patrick Corbin | $8 | $12 | $6 | $8 | $6 | $6 | $9 | $3 |
| 46 | Kenta Maeda | $10 | $7 | $9 | $8 | $3 | $0 | $9 | $9 |
| 47 | Wei-Yin Chen | $9 | $6 | $13 | $4 | $9 | $4 | $8 | $4 |
| 48 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | $9 | $6 | $7 | $9 | $3 | $10 | $8 | -$2 |
| 49 | Taijuan Walker | $4 | $10 | $9 | $7 | $6 | $11 | $8 | -$4 |
| 50 | James Shields | $11 | $7 | $6 | $6 | $5 | $24 | $8 | -$16 |
| 51 | Kyle Hendricks | $9 | $7 | $7 | $7 | $2 | $5 | $8 | $3 |
| 52 | Clay Buchholz | $8 | $6 | $8 | $8 | $2 | $5 | $8 | $2 |
| 53 | Alex Cobb | $8 | $7 | $6 | $6 | $2 | $12 | $7 | -$6 |
| 54 | Carlos Rodon | $6 | $9 | $3 | $8 | $6 | $8 | $7 | -$2 |
| 55 | Luis Severino | $4 | $7 | $6 | $9 | $5 | $5 | $7 | $2 |
| 56 | Andrew Cashner | $8 | $5 | $7 | $6 | $3 | $11 | $7 | -$4 |
| 57 | Jake Odorizzi | $6 | $8 | $4 | $5 | $4 | $8 | $6 | -$2 |
| 58 | Lucas Giolito | $4 | $7 | $2 | $8 | $6 | $5 | $5 | $0 |
| 59 | Tyler Glasnow | $7 | $6 | $3 | $5 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $1 |
| 60 | Joe Ross | $3 | $8 | $3 | $6 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $0 |
| 61 | Zack Wheeler | $6 | $2 | $7 | $5 | $5 | $10 | $5 | -$5 |
| 62 | Julio Urias | $5 | $7 | $2 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $0 |
| 63 | Collin McHugh | $6 | $3 | $4 | $6 | $3 | $8 | $5 | -$3 |
| 64 | John Lackey | $7 | $3 | $6 | $2 | $5 | $7 | $5 | -$2 |
| 65 | Jason Hammel | $3 | $1 | $9 | $5 | $8 | $5 | $5 | $0 |
| 66 | Kevin Gausman | $1 | $7 | $3 | $4 | $6 | $9 | $4 | -$5 |
| 67 | Jose De Leon | $5 | $6 | $0 | $4 | $6 | $3 | $4 | $0 |
| 68 | Alex Reyes | $1 | $6 | $3 | $5 | $5 | $4 | $4 | $0 |
| 69 | Blake Snell | $1 | $6 | $2 | $5 | $5 | $4 | $4 | $0 |
| 70 | Anibal Sanchez | $4 | $3 | $1 | $6 | $5 | $15 | $4 | -$11 |
| 71 | Jose Berrios | $1 | $6 | $1 | $5 | $5 | $3 | $3 | $0 |
| 72 | Rich Hill | $4 | $2 | $1 | $6 | $5 | $4 | $3 | -$1 |
| 73 | Aaron Nola | $1 | $4 | $1 | $6 | $5 | $5 | $3 | -$2 |
| 74 | Jordan Zimmermann | $1 | $2 | $5 | $4 | $4 | $25 | $3 | -$22 |
| 75 | Brandon McCarthy | $5 | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $7 | $3 | -$4 |
| 76 | Vincent Velasquez | $1 | $4 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $6 | $3 | -$3 |
| 77 | Matt Moore | $1 | $3 | $2 | $3 | $2 | $6 | $2 | -$4 |
| 78 | Brett Anderson | $4 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $2 | -$2 |
| 79 | Tyler Skaggs | $4 | $3 | $0 | $1 | $4 | $5 | $2 | -$3 |
| 80 | Shelby Miller | $0 | $3 | $0 | $5 | $5 | $13 | $2 | -$11 |
| 81 | Ian Kennedy | $1 | $1 | $1 | $5 | $4 | $8 | $2 | -$6 |
| 82 | Mike Bolsinger | $5 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $5 | $4 | $2 | -$2 |
| 83 | Justin Verlander | $3 | $3 | $0 | $0 | $3 | $14 | $2 | -$12 |
| 84 | Jesse Hahn | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $6 | $2 | -$4 |
| 85 | Andrew Heaney | $1 | $2 | $2 | $0 | $2 | $6 | $1 | -$5 |
| 86 | Sean Manaea | $1 | $1 | $2 | $1 | $1 | $3 | $1 | -$2 |
| 87 | Nicholas Tropeano | $3 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $3 | $6 | $1 | -$5 |
| 88 | Kyle Gibson | $0 | $2 | $0 | $2 | $2 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 89 | Jameson Taillon | $2 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $2 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 90 | Robbie Ray | $3 | $1 | $0 | $0 | $3 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 91 | Lance Lynn | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $0 | $13 | $1 | -$12 |
| 92 | James Paxton | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $0 | $7 | $1 | -$6 |
| 93 | Anthony Desclafani | $0 | $1 | $0 | $3 | $3 | $5 | $1 | -$4 |
| 94 | Brandon Finnegan | $0 | $0 | $1 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 95 | John Lamb | $2 | $1 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 96 | Erasmo Ramirez | $0 | $1 | $0 | $2 | $2 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 97 | Eduardo Rodriguez | $0 | $1 | $0 | $2 | $2 | $5 | $1 | -$4 |
| 98 | Alex Wood | $0 | $1 | $0 | $2 | $2 | $11 | $1 | -$10 |
| 99 | Clayton Blackburn | $3 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $3 | $2 | $1 | -$1 |
| 100 | Brandon Morrow | $3 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $3 | $11 | $1 | -$11 |
| 101 | Rick Porcello | $1 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $7 | $1 | -$7 |
| 102 | Jake Peavy | $1 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $6 | $1 | -$5 |
| 103 | Tyler Lyons | $1 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $2 | $0 | $1 | $1 |
| 104 | Jerad Eikoff | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $1 |
| 105 | Dylan Bundy | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $6 | $1 | -$6 |
| 106 | Adam Conley | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $3 | $1 | -$3 |
| 107 | Sean Newcomb | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $3 | $1 | -$2 |
| 108 | Trevor Bauer | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $2 | $7 | $1 | -$7 |
| 109 | Mike Fiers | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $2 | $7 | $1 | -$7 |
| 110 | Jon Gray | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $2 | $6 | $1 | -$6 |
| 111 | Drew Hutchison | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $2 | $6 | $1 | -$6 |
| 112 | Josh Johnson | $0 | $0 | $2 | $0 | $2 | $24 | $1 | -$23 |
| 113 | Matt Shoemaker | $1 | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $6 | $1 | -$5 |
| 114 | J.A. Happ | $1 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 115 | Chris Heston | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $2 | $4 | $1 | -$4 |
| 116 | Nate Eovaldi | $0 | $1 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $6 | $0 | -$6 |
| 117 | Kyle Zimmer | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $4 | $0 | -$3 |
| 118 | Cody Reed | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $0 | -$2 |
| Total $ | $1201 | $1288 | $1299 | $1267 | |||||
| Total Ranked | 98 | 102 | 88 | 109 | |||||
Only players who received a ranking from at least one of the four of us were included. Players not listed are likely post-auction pick-ups ($1 players). The line between a $1 player and a post-auction pick-up is very small.
Each owner has different biases to certain positions. To help illustrate these we’ve included “Total $” and “Total ranked” at the bottom of the table. We hope this helps you pick apart some different owner strategies/biases.
The (+/-) column may be helpful in determining which players may generally be overrated by your league mates.
Joe works at a consulting firm in Pittsburgh. When he isn't working or studying for actuarial exams, he focuses on baseball. He also writes @thepointofpgh. Follow him on twitter @Ottoneutrades
Must admit surprise at Jose Fernandez’ valuation. No doubt great upside, but the injury issues would be enough for me to strongly prefer, say, David Price for $11 less.
Even if J-Fer pitches 170 innings, his points per inning is elite making him more valuable than you think. I understand the concerns. If J-Fer is healthy, which I think is a thing of the past, he could be the #2 SP. One of these years I can see him passing Kershaw.
Yeah, I think that’s the exact right response. Certainly no shame in preferring a safer bet like Price, but the advantage in our eyes with Fernandez is that you could pair him and a $1 guy (someone ranked 90+ on our list) and potentially get a good deal more than Price, even considering the cost different. That said – that’s exactly why we have Price listed lower, because we think he’s an equally good deal at that salary as Fernandez is where he is ranked. So if you wanted to pick up Price and a ten dollar pitcher, that’s a perfectly valid strategy as well.
teheran, miley, and eovaldi are all owned in my league at $9+. are my leaguemates crazy or did this list miss a few names?
A little of both, mostly the former. I do have all three on my sheet as $1 guys, so I think they were probably missed when we put together the rankings, but in reality all are at best replacement-level SP in FGPTS.
How did Lance Lynn get a ranking from any of you let alone have a $13 Otto value when he’s going to miss the entire upcoming season?
Because Lynn is really good when healthy (mid teens). He’s out all year, yes, but a $1 Lance Lynn now is a $3 Lance Lynn going into next year (when he should be fine) which is a nice price on a useful players. It’s accounting for the fact that Ottoneu is a semi-dynasty league. Same reason you have prospects ranked.
Ah, dynasty leagues, you should’ve mentioned that.
It says Ottoneu FanGraph Point Rankings… If you know what Ottoneu is the non-redraft element is implied.
Wow, you guys are really high on Carlos Martinez. What exactly makes you so much more confident in him over his teammate Wacha?
I can only speak for myself, but my higher $ value on Martinez over Wacha is entirely based on Martinez having much stronger projections from ZiPS/Steamer. Martinez is about a 4.90 Pts/IP SP to me, while Wacha is only at 4.50 Pts/IP.
Very surprised by Verlander, Heaney and Eikoff (sic) valuations. What am I missing??
On second look I think I’d agree Verlander feels a bit low here, though a lot of his rebound last year came from pitching up in the zone with his fastball. If the league corrects in 2016, that could mean more HRA, which is costly in Ottoneu.
Heaney has a long uphill battle to deliver more than replacement value in 2016 in this format, though he’s young and will be interesting to watch. For guys on this list that like Heaney and Eikoff that have a composite value of $1 we’re essentially saying they a) might be replacement level and b) should at least be watched in case they improve just enough to be scooped up.
You think they’re all too low? I think Verlander is simple, we just think he’s done. We all made our values separately but we all came to a similar conclusion on him. Heaney I’d say is kind of a bubble player – he could certainly be worth more … or he could be below replacement level. And Eickoff doesn’t have much track record – he was great in 50 innings last year but his pedigree isn’t anything special, which is why I personally am not sold on him. I’m guess the other guys may have felt similarly.
Trey, Tom…..Thank you very much for taking the time to respond. I appreciate your time, and all the good work you put into all the player valuations! This info will be helpful in a couple of redrafts I have in the next two weeks…..(and as a Tiger fan, I hope Verlander isn’t done yet!).
I know this is late but I have a question, Why is Hamels’ value considered so low? He’s been a pitcher in the 1000+ range for FGpts for 5 straight years and is typically inside the top 20 SP. Iwakuma is 3 spots below him and has achieved 1000 points once, Samardzija is ahead of him and has never posted as many points and is only one year younger. What am I missing?
I have Hamels lower because the projections are pretty unfavorable. Hamels has seemed to be a guy able to outperform those projections, but he’s also pitching in the AL now vs. the NL, so he gets penalized for that. It’s a small sample, but Cole had a 3.66 ERA/ 3.79 FIP with the Rangers last year, and Steamer projects 3.73/3.75 while ZiPS projects 3.69/3.79. That quality of performance is just not worth much more than $10-$15.
At first I thought this said “I hate Hamels” and I was about to agree