The last two weeks, I had two auctions with the same problem – a player (or players) I wanted going for way more than I anticipated – but ended with very different results. In both cases, how I prepped for the auction played a big role in how I reacted to the market, adjusted, and eventually built teams I think are ready for the season.
The Ottoneu Prestige League is back and whether you participated last year or not, I highly recommend you play this year if your team is eligible. For those of you who have joined, or intend to join, it is time to start thinking about who you are going to target for your OPL team.
Last year, I dug into roster construction for OPL, and I am using that same analysis as my guide for OPL this year, but what about specific types of players and names?
It has been a while since I shared thoughts on how I prepare for an Ottoneu auction and my process has changed quite a bit. With the lockout behind us, auctions will be coming up fast and furious in the coming weeks, so now is the ideal time to look at what I am doing to prepare for auctions this year.
Outfield is a lot deeper than I expected when I started building this list. Especially when you factor in all the platoon bats. However, I think filling up 810 games across the five OF positions will be more challenging than people think. A lot of players on this list are good for 100 games or less, even before accounting for injuries, underperformance, etc.
Over the past few weeks, I have been posting Ottoneu positional rankings, with dollar tiers instead of specific values. I took this approach last year, as well. It represents an evolution from where I was a few years back, when I regularly posted dollar values.
I have a growing discomfort with the idea that I can or should try to predict a player’s precise value. I don’t believe I was ever naive enough to think a value I put on a player was exact and not subject to error. I did, however, think the error bars could be managed – a $10 player might not be exactly $10 but he’s probably not $6 or $7 and he’s probably not $13 or $14. Over time, I have come to believe those ranges are wider. How much wider? Well, a lot.
Third base is a weird position this year. There are some studs at the top, but it gets risky real fast. Want to bet on Alex Bregman regaining his earlier form? Or Austin Riley avoiding his earlier form? Think Anthony Rendon can stay on the field? Or maybe you would rather gamble on Josh Donaldson’s health? Pick your poison. Hopefully these rankings help.
Shortstop is maybe the most fun position in baseball right now. Fernando Tatis Jr., Bo Bichette, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trea Turner and I could keep going. As a result, almost every team in your league is going to feel good about shortstop, which I think creates an opportunity to buy a second SS to be your MI. There is a chance that there could be some good values to be had if other managers are complacent thanks to having one of the top 10. And there are plenty of interesting names after the top 10.
Continuing my Ottoneu FanGraphs Points rankings series, we’ll turn our attention to middle infield, starting with second base. The next two lists (this one and shortstop, coming early next week) will have some overlap. Because Ottoneu has a MI spot, the replacement level for 2B and SS end up being the same. This is something I have played around with over the years – some years SS looks weaker; sometimes it is 2B. Sometimes the position that is weaker at the top also has a lower replacement level; sometimes it doesn’t. But the replacement level for the two positions always end up so close that prioritizing one over the other (i.e., if a player has 2B and SS eligibility, they should be used at SS) becomes impossible. To avoid making a false decision on prioritization, arbitrarily changing the value of players at these two spots, I combine them.