Stars and Scrubs vs. Balancing: A Retrospective

On Tuesday, just hours before I dove into the auction for league 1199, I laid out the challenge I faced for the brilliant minds that read this site, and promised to return with news of how things played out. This is my foretold return.

First, thanks to those who commented. A few things stuck out from those comments and helped refine my thinking.

Nathan rightly suggested that going stars and scrubs would make it easier to make upgrades later – I would have big stars anchoring my lineup and replace whichever scrubs don’t pan out with trades in-season. stockhfcrx2 was on the same page, saying you can always improve via the wire.

sakiehl concurred, saying I should get Soto and “miss out on having to overpay for the mid-tier guys later on.”

On the other side, John Easterday said to “spread your costs,” and joecatz (who is in this league) shared the little nugget that one team had over $160 to spend on just three spots – so getting a stud might be prohibitively expensive.

paulehlers knows me best, apparently. He is in a similar spot in a league with a couple of stars available and said, “If the bidding isn’t insane I’ll grab one of them. If it’s crazy I’ll spread the risk.” That’s a succinct version of what I was discussing regarding contingency planning earlier in draft season.

At the end of the day, my plan was something of an amalgamation of all of this. I decided that, despite the presence of two managers with the bankroll to bully the room, I would get in on Juan Soto up to $70-$75, then bow out and turn my attention to the rest of the board.

If I got Soto, I was going to load up on upside plays and prospects that I might be able to trade to fill in holes later (if they didn’t come up quickly enough to improve me directly). If I failed to get Soto, I was going to add one of the top middle infielders, another very solid MI, a strong utility bat, and two $20+ OF, and fill in around that with solid backups who would provide high-floor production.

I ended up somewhere in between that – accomplishing most of the non-Soto plan while shifting to a more prospect- and upside-heavy back-end than I originally anticipated with that path.

I got off to a bit of an odd start when two of my top utility options if I failed to get Soto (Rhys Hoskins and Josh Bell) were the 4th and 5th names off the board – both being nominated before Soto. That meant I had to either decide to bail on Soto and get one of those two or be reserved on those two to see where Soto landed. The team that only needed three players had the first nomination and put up Kodai Senga, winning him for $18 and then paying $35 for Gerritt Cole next. He was down to one spot and while he had plenty of cash, I decided to gamble that Soto might not be his primary target (perhaps he wanted Fernando Tatis, Jr. or Bryce Harper or was just focused on pitching).

So I let Hoskins go for $25 (I would have gone up to maybe $30 if I was focused on him over Soto) and Bell went for $20 (I was out at that price without concern), and Soto was next. And he went for $88, not to the team with so few spots to fill (he did, in fact, get Harper later), but to another team flush with cash and a near-empty roster.

This left me without my top util choices and no Soto, so it was time to go after a modified form of the non-Soto plan, going a little cheaper at util.

With MI and OF as my prime targets, I left Xander Bogaerts go at $32 and Francisco Lindor at $34, as well as Jake Cronenworth at $16. The first two were two of my three “star” level targets; Cronenworth one of my “mid-tier” options. I ended up paying for my third option at MI – a $36 Ozzie Albies. Given the board at the time, I slightly preferred Albies, feeling I had better SS options later, and that played out, as I added a $16 Jeremy Pena about 30 minutes later.

Had I taken Bogaerts or Lindor at $36 instead of Albies, my alternatives at 2B would have been $19 Tommy Edman, $18 Vaughn Grissom, $26 Ketel Marte, $17 DJ LeMahieu, among others. Given those are the prices those players went for, I would have had to pay more for them. Albies and Pena was almost assuredly less expensive than going $30+ SS with a different 2B and I like the Albies/Pena pairing more than Lindor or Bogaerts with one of the others.

OF wasn’t quite as successful. The first set of OF to come up were $32 Giancarlo Stanton, $88 Soto, $44 Harper, $3 Kerry Carpenter (I really wanted him for $1-$2 a couple hours later), $14 Joc Pederson, $31 Seiya Suzuki, $35 Luis Robert, $27 Masataka Yoshida, $6 Charlie Blackmon and $30 Christian Yelich. About 45 minutes into the auction, Yelich was my second pickup, coming two players after Albies. Looking back at that group, I don’t have many regrets. I could have gone to $15 on Pederson and I could make a case for Yoshida at $28, but to be honest, I don’t love any of the prices and Yelich provides me the best combination of price, floor, and upside. I could maybe make a case for $33 Stanton, as well.

Remember, I also still wanted another solid OF and a utility bat. Having missed out on the 1B/utility options, I made a decision to target a 3B I like this year – Matt Chapman. Chapman gives me three things: 1) a good power bat who hurts less in OBP than AVG; 2) upside beyond his current price as I think the new fences in Toronto favor him as much as anyone; 3) insurance at 3B where my other option is Ke’Bryan Hayes, who I really like but who also makes me nervous.

This is where things went a little sideways, and I made an unexpected pivot. My “floor” OF options went for prices I couldn’t justify ($17 Alex Verdugo stands out) and the bounceback candidates had way too much rebound priced in for my liking ($30 Jesse Winker, $21 Nick Castellanos).

And so I decided to go to the second half of my Soto plan – go get upside, future value, and players I think can be traded or be more valuable in June than they are today.

$10 Austin Meadows, $4 Alex Kiriloff, $3 Kyle Stowers, $3 Alek Thomas, $2 Bryan De La Cruz, $2 Jack Suwinski, and $1 Nolan Jones wiill have to fill in two of my five OF spots, at least until Colton Cowser ($2), Evan Carter ($3), or Cedanne Rafaela ($1) are ready. Spencer Turnbull ($3), Clarke Schmidt ($1) and Tylor Megill ($1) will are intriguing arms added to a rotation that I already like, plus I am stashing a $3 Frankie Montas until…well, whenever he is ready.

I also executed my bullpen plan perfectly, getting five of my top six targets (Garrett Cleavinger, Aaron Bummer, Hunter Harvey, Jovani Moran, Cionel Perez) for $1 a piece. What do they have in common? Last year they gave up a combined seven HR in 187.1 IP, for a HR/9 of .336. For 4×4, that is a huge boost to my rotation.

I also added a $4 Logan O’Hoppe as my second catcher and $6 Brett Baty who doesn’t entirely fit the rest of the plan, but I love the upside, I think he plays sooner-rather-than-later and he gives me another option at 3B/Util if needed.

All in all, I can’t complain. While there is one team with a clear advantage in team value per the Surplus Calculator, my team is very much in the mix with the next group – which puts me in a good position to compete. I have some work to do – I need a 5th MI and some OF upgrades would go a long way. But I have a strong rotation, a passable offense, good pieces to make trades when it is time, and $18 (fourth most in the league) to play with for free agents.

Now to try to win some food.