The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Teams with favorable schedules include the Angels, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Marlins, Rangers, Reds, and Tigers.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Guardians, Nationals, Padres, Phillies, Rockies, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Not a lot of recommendations for this weekend. There are a pair of starters in the Mariners-Tigers series who you could go after since both of those offenses have been sputtering and they’re playing in the cavernous Comerica Park. All three of the Tigers starters scheduled to start in the series fall below the 50% ownership threshold, but Matthew Boyd is clearly the best of the bunch. On Seattle’s side, Marco Gonzales has been solid if unspectacular this year. His last start was a gutty six inning outing against the Astros where he allowed three runs on six hits while striking out three.

Both J.P. France and Adrian Houser have made just a single start this year, though both draw a pretty nice matchup for their second start. France is a little bit more of a risky play since he’s pitching in the home run friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, but he looked solid against the Mariners in his major league debut over the weekend. Houser was activated off the IL on Sunday and made his first start against the Giants, throwing 4.2 innings with just two runs allowed and five strikeouts.

Despite allowing 13 runs across his last three starts, Ryne Nelson’s FIP during that stretch has been just 3.57 with a 4.23 xFIP. Six of those runs came in a start in Coors Field which is where the only home run he’s allowed over the last few weeks was hit. He’s lined up to start against the Giants at home over the weekend. San Francisco’s offense has been hitting pretty well, but Nelson’s home park is pretty home run friendly.

Hot starters:

I just highlighted a different Rockies starter in my last column and I’m going back to that well again. Kyle Freeland has been pretty decent over his last three starts including a seven inning outing yesterday against the Pirates. He was fantastic against the Brewers at home last week, throwing five shutout innings with five strikeouts and just three hits. The same warnings apply here as they did for Ryan Feltner: avoid starts at home while playing the matchups on the road.

Say it ain’t so! It looks like Patrick Corbin might be showing some signs of life after three miserable seasons. He pitched a solid seven innings against the Cubs last week, allowing just two runs on three hits while striking out six. He’s scheduled to start against the Giants in San Francisco today. We’ll see if he can continue building off that start against Chicago.

Recap: May 5–7

Ouch. Nothing good came from those recommendations last weekend. In the Brad Keller-Kyle Muller matchup on Friday, the A’s and Royals wound up scoring 20 runs combined. The only start that came close to being a win was Yonny Chirinos’s start against the Yankees, though he walked four and didn’t strike out a single batter in that outing.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Teams with favorable schedules next week include the Diamondbacks, Giants, Guardians, Nationals, Pirates, Rangers, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Mariners, Mets, Orioles, Phillies, Red Sox, and Reds.

Highlighted matchups:

I covered both Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill in my last column on Tuesday as two guys who have been particularly good recently. The former made a start against the Rays yesterday and left after three innings with elbow discomfort. He said he was optimistic about the injury after the game but his status is clearly up in the air. If he’s healthy, he’s scheduled to take the mound against the Rockies at home on Tuesday. Monitor his status closely.

In that A’s-Yankees series there could be a couple of starters you could call on to take advantage of some weak offenses. Jhony Brito is scheduled to start Wednesday and he looked a lot better in his last start against the potent Rangers lineup; he threw five innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts against just one walk. There are a bunch of A’s starters who you probably shouldn’t trust, even against the weakened Yankees lineup. Plus there’s the complication of Aaron Judge potentially being activated from the Injured List early in the week. If you had to pick an Oakland starter, I’d go with JP Sears; he’s coming off six innings of shutout work against the Mariners.

The Guardians-Tigers series features two of the worst offenses in the league going head-to-head. Michael Lorenzen and Peyton Battenfield draw starts in the series and both are worth considering simply due to the lack of offensive quality they’ll be facing. The former is a pretty known quantity at this point in his career, but the Cleveland rookie features some promise even if the early results haven’t been pretty. Battenfield features a cutter that possesses a 38.2% whiff rate, a weapon that makes him a far more interesting flier than a veteran innings eater.

Hot Starters:

I’d understand if you had completely missed out on the stretch of starts Ryan Feltner has put together recently. Over his last three turns in the rotation, he’s allowed just three runs while striking out 15 in 17 innings. Just one of those starts came at home in Coors Field and that’s really the sticking point with any Rockies starter. It’s a huge gamble to start them at home so you’re only really rostering them for half their appearances. At his peak, Germán Márquez was worth rostering; Feltner is definitely not at that point yet, but his stretch of solid starts makes him worth monitoring.

After tossing a seven-inning gem back on April 16 against the Padres, Wade Miley has followed it up with three solid starts including surviving Coors Field yesterday. The strikeouts aren’t there but he’s managing hard contact against him and isn’t walking anyone. He’s lined up to start against the Dodgers at home in his next turn through the rotation. If he can pass that test, he could be worth looking into to give your Ottoneu team some bulk innings.

Recap: May 1–4

A pretty good week with two clear wins, another solid start, and just one clear loss. Domingo Germán looked dominant against the Guardians and his ownership rate has skyrocketed over the 50% threshold we’re working with. Tyler Wells actually looked pretty decent against the Royals, but he was undone by allowing three home runs, the only hits he allowed in his start.

Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen are the primary characters in today’s story, but this article isn’t really about them. In fact, I am going to say very little about their value, production, or future performance. Instead, this story is about Ottoneu in-season auctions and how different auctions at different times can lead to different results.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Teams with favorable schedules this weekend include the A’s, Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Rays, Royals, and Twins.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Angels, Blue Jays, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

There are three recommendations in that Royals-A’s series in Oakland this weekend. Brad Keller still hasn’t found his groove with his new breaking balls that he introduced this year, but the matchup and venue are just too good to pass up. Both Kyle Muller and Ken Waldichuk have been frequent inclusions in this column but neither has really pitched up to their potential yet. The Royals’ punchless offense is as good an opportunity to get their seasons back on track.

After sitting out most of 2021 and all of last year due to Tommy John surgery, Joey Lucchesi has been thrust back into the Mets rotation with all their injuries they’ve been dealing with. He’s made two starts so far and has looked pretty good; he shut out the Giants in seven innings in his first start and allowed three runs in 5.1 against the Nationals in his second. He’s lined up to start at home against the Rockies.

With Aaron Judge on the IL and the rest of the Yankees lineup really struggling to produce anything right now, it’s the perfect time to take advantage of this struggling team. This weekend, the Rays host New York and there are two starters who could make for nice drip candidates. Josh Fleming has worked as a long reliever for the most part this year. Make sure he’s actually listed as the starter and isn’t lined up to be the bulk pitcher after an opener. The same goes for Yonny Chirinos. He’s finally healthy after a long road to recovery after Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow.

Hot starters:

Now that we’re a little deeper into the season, I can point out some under-owned pitchers who have been throwing well recently who might not be making it into the recommended section above due to their matchups. I’m looking at data from the last 14 days to find these pitchers who are performing well.

The two Pirates starters have been phenomenal recently, part of the entire team’s fantastic month of April. Rich Hill continues to do his thing at 43 years old and has had a very nice run of three starts including a gem in Coors Field where he held the Rockies to just a single run in six innings back on April 17. I recommended Vince Velasquez for his start against the Nationals last weekend and he delivered a commanding performance. He’s now posted back-to-back shutouts in his last two outings. He looks like he’s in the middle of one of those hot streaks that remind us why he was so highly thought of as a prospect and why he’s continued to bounce around the league despite never really living up to his potential.

Yusei Kikuchi’s most impressive start came back on April 15 when he held the red hot Rays to just a single run in six innings. It seems like he’s gotten his control problems figured out while still racking up the strikeouts. His stuff is good enough that he could finally be breaking out five years after coming over to the US from Japan.

Recap: April 28–30

Velasquez’s start was the big win over the weekend but that was negated by the disaster of a start from Caleb Kilian in Miami. The rest of the slate was fine, not too bad but no clear wins either.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Teams with favorable schedules next week include the A’s, Braves, Mariners, Mets, Orioles, Padres, Reds, and Tigers.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies, Red Sox, Rockies, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

The Orioles visit the expansive ballpark in Kansas City and get to face the punchless Royals offense next week. There are two starters who I’m recommending: Tyler Wells and Kyle Gibson (again). The former has pitched particularly well this year and pitched a seven inning shutout against the Tigers a week ago. In his last start against the Red Sox, he struck out seven — a season-high — and allowed just two runs on four hits in 5.2 innings. Gibson has been a common recommendation in this column and he has continued to provide serviceable production when the matchup is right.

Outside of a seven run blowup in his first start of the season, Drew Smyly has pitched phenomenally this year. He took a perfect game into the eighth inning against the Dodgers a week ago and then held the Padres to two runs on four hits in five innings his last time out. A matchup with the Nationals should be a piece of cake after suppressing those two offenses.

The last two recommendations are pretty risky considering the number of home runs each of them has allowed. Still, both Domingo Germán and JP Sears sit within the top-20 in the majors in strikeout-minus-walk rate. Despite their issues with the long ball, they’re striking batters out and aren’t allowing too many free passes; that’s certainly a sign of better things to come for both of them. Of the two, I’d be more inclined to start Sears since his home ballpark is a haven for fly ball pitchers like him.

Recap: April 24–27

Woof. That start from José Suarez against the A’s was absolutely brutal. It completely wiped away any positive vibes from Gibson’s gem or Canning’s solid start. Brad Keller continues to struggle with his command, which means he’s bleeding points despite allowing just a single home run this year.

We’re a month into the season and the average points per inning pitched for the recommendations in this column sits at 3.24. That’s not great, but it’s not a disaster either. The 50% ownership threshold really puts a strain on the kinds of pitchers I’m able to include since Ottoneu has such deep rosters. Have these targets been helpful for you, dear reader, or do I need to be a little more discerning with my recommendations week in and week out?

We’re about a month into the season now which means you’re probably getting a good feel for the direction your fantasy teams are headed this year. Maybe your roster has been wracked with injuries or you’ve hit the jackpot on the sleepers you picked up this offseason. This year, I’ve been writing up my experience of rebuilding my Ottoneu team in League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams; I’ve covered making the initial decision to rebuild, some general draft strategy for rebuilding clubs, and the dilemma I faced with the draft this year. Now is a pretty good time to check in on how things are progressing for The Wanderers.

The Draft

Before we dive in on what’s going on with the team now that the regular season is underway, I want to take a quick moment to recap what happened in the draft. If you remember, I had a significant amount of cash to spend on relatively few roster spots. I was targeting a starting second baseman and a high-end outfielder while spreading the rest of my cap space out between some depth options.

Folks, let me tell you, I seriously underestimated the amount of inflation present in the league. My top target, Mookie Betts, went for $70 and I drove the price up that high in a bidding war with the eventual winner. I just couldn’t bring myself to bid that one extra dollar after he hit that $70 threshold. There were a number of points in the draft where I had to bow out of the bidding on a target because the eventual price was just getting too high. I felt some particular pressure trying to find an outfielder; I had shifted my eyes towards some of the mid-tier options after some salary cap opened up by missing out on Betts. I let Masataka Yoshida ($35), Christian Yelich ($27), Jesse Winker ($28), Nick Castellanos ($26), and Cedric Mullins ($22) all go to other players after their salaries got too high and eventually settled for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. at $16. I did end up getting a couple of my high priority targets — Bryce Harper ($43), Spencer Steer ($8), Spencer Torkelson ($9), and Reid Detmers ($11) — but I felt like I was on the back foot during the entire draft, continually making contingency plans as players came off the board with values way over what I was comfortable with.

Here are the 10 players I had selected by the end of the draft:

Brandon Lowe turned out to be a pretty good backup pick after missing out on Betts, though most of the other available second basemen in the draft have performed rather well to start this season too. Steer has looked great and Gurriel has been okay. The pitching depth I picked up hasn’t been all that impressive, but all three of them are young and still have the potential to breakout that made them such enticing options. It wasn’t the most successful draft I’ve ever had, but it wasn’t terrible, particularly considering how wayward my plans went.

Breakouts!

On April 26, my team is currently sitting in sixth place, less than 500 points behind first place and right in the middle of a group of seven teams separated by less than 100 points.

I have the third best offense in the league thanks to breakouts from Wander Franco (7.56 Pts/G), Jarred Kelenic (8.56), and Steer (5.24) and solid bounce back seasons from Max Muncy (8.73) and Lowe (5.79). My pitching hasn’t been as great, sitting eighth in the league by points per inning pitched. I’m not as worried about that, but it’s probably the area of the team that could use the most help at this point. All things considered, I’m extremely happy with where my team sits in the standings. Thanks to those handful of breakouts, it’s going a lot better than expected.

The big thing that could potentially have a huge impact on the direction of my team is Bryce Harper’s impending return. The latest reports have him possibly being activated as soon as early May. That might be optimistic, but he’s clearly ahead of schedule and should be contributing much earlier in the season than expected. Getting four months of production from him this year instead of the expected one or two means my team has a significant source of points that will be added to the roster — something very few other teams can claim. There’s no guarantee that he’ll produce up to his usual superstar standards, but if he does, my already great offense will only get better.

Churn Baby, Churn

One of the most important early season tasks for a rebuilding team is to churn through the waiver wire searching for potential undrafted breakouts. Every team does this as they deal with injuries and underperformance, but it’s particularly important for a team like mine since I need to infuse my roster with talent however I can. I’ve added ten players off the waiver wire, kept seven of them and have already completed an early season trade.

Immediately following the draft, I started a couple of auctions for a pair of relievers I thought had some upside to chase. Brock Burke hasn’t been great (5.93 Pts/IP) but Jonathan Hernández (7.71) has been solid in high leverage work for the Rangers. Dylan Dodd looked like a promising pickup after he received an early season callup for the Braves but I ended up cutting him a few weeks later after Atlanta sent him back down to the minors. I like the improvements Luis Garíca has made to his approach at the plate and I believe in his potential to breakout this season so that was a pretty easy waiver claim after another team dropped him. I grabbed Kris Bubic after his two promising starts but his breakout was short lived after undergoing Tommy John surgery a week after adding him. Jonah Heim replaced Eric Haase as my backup catcher which has definitely worked out for the better. Tony Gonsolin was another waiver claim after another team dropped him and hopefully he can provide some upside for my pitching staff.

As for my cuts, Jack Leiter and Marco Luciano were both too expensive as prospects to keep around, especially considering the challenges they’ve faced in their development. I might regret cutting Nolan Jones if the Rockies ever give him a chance to play in the majors since he’s absolutely destroying Triple-A, but that chance might not ever materialize. When they did call him up, he sat on the bench for three games and then was sent back down without a single plate appearance. Kolten Wong’s and Oscar Gonzalez’s frigid cold starts to the season made them both easy cuts. After all that churn, I’ve got a single dollar in available cap space which puts me at a pretty significant disadvantage for the rest of the season. I’ll need to work on finding ways to clear some cap space so I can continue working the waiver wire as new breakouts popup.

The one trade I completed was a complete surprise. I woke up one morning with the offer in my inbox, sleepily considered it for a few moments, and then slammed the accept button. Kyle Manzardo is a good prospect and he’s gotten off to a strong start in Triple-A this year, but his path to the majors is currently blocked. I picked him up in the draft for exactly this reason; he had some helium as a prospect and I knew I could probably gain a pretty solid piece for him in the middle of the season. I just didn’t expect it to come so soon. Jazz Chisholm hasn’t gotten off to a strong start this year — his 37.8% strikeout rate is particularly concerning — but the talent is certainly there and his salary makes him an easy keeper if he finds a way to repeat his breakout from last year. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take with the added benefit of him possibly impacting my team this year.

With Harper’s return looming, Chisholm and Gonsolin raising the potential ceiling of my roster, and all the breakouts hitting at once, this team is in a much better position than should be expected at this point in the rebuilding cycle. I’m not sure the roster is good enough to challenge for a top-3 spot in the standings yet, but the foundation I’ve built is definitely solid enough to luck my way into contention if things continue going well. I’ll have to fight against the urge to make a series of “win now” moves this summer if I’m still stuck inside the large pack of teams in the middle of the standings. That might give me an edge over those other mid-tier teams, but it would be a big risk and a potential setback for the work I’ve been doing to prepare my team for the future.