After a holiday hiatus, we’re back at it with 2B today and we’ll be powering through other positions quickly. My goal is to finish this series in January and to make updates in February as new information comes out or my thinking changes. Second base has already been delayed because of new information and updated thinking.
With catchers out of the way, we continue to move around the IF, going from the worst offensive position to the best. First base is always both top-heavy and deep, and that is the case again this year. It creates an interesting dynamic where there is big production to be had by adding the top guys, but there is also good value to be had by waiting out the rest of the league and seeing who shows up cheap later in the auction. It creates an interesting strategic choice in which there are a lot of ways to build a team.
As with catchers, before I share the list, I want to share some notes on my process.
Last week, I posted my catcher rankings for Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues, but those are, of course, not the only rankings out there. There are other formats, there are values created by other analysts and more. Before moving to the next position in my rankings, I wanted to take a moment to look at where other values might differ from mine at catcher, and why.
I didn’t start this series until January last year (which was already this year!) but I wanted to get out a bit earlier in 2023 (which is still 2022) as trade season is well underway. This comes with some risk – a number of players are still unsigned, trades are still to come, not all projections are available, etc. – but I think the risk is worth the reward, don’t you?
As in past years, before I share the list, I want to share some notes on my process.
It is now that time of year when your inbox pings and dings with notifications from Ottoneu. Is that a good trade proposition? Should you keep player A? Are you over-paying player B? These are all questions you should be asking yourself this off-season. Luckily, FanGraphs has all the data you need to make informed decisions. Here are three easy steps you can take this offseason to ensure you’re ready for your Ottoneu re-draft.
1. Merge your league rosters with new 2023 projections.
In order to do this you need two things:
(a) a fresh .csv download of auction calculator values (both pitchers and hitters) using steamer projections, tuned to your specific league settings.
(b) your league csv, which you can easily download by clicking on the tools icon at the top of your Ottoneu league page.
From there, you’ll need to merge your new 2023 values with your current players. Here’s an example from one of my teams:
| Name | Position(s) | Current Salary | 23 Steamer Projected Value | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Walls | 2B/SS/3B | $4.00 | -$51.36 | $55.36 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 1B/2B/3B | $24.00 | -$17.67 | $41.67 |
| Josh Donaldson | 3B | $23.00 | -$15.31 | $38.31 |
| Eddie Rosario | OF | $9.00 | -$27.42 | $36.42 |
| Cody Bellinger | OF | $24.00 | -$10.59 | $34.59 |
You can do two things with this table. First, you can compare the salary you’re paying a player with what Steamer 23′ thinks a player is worth. Clearly, I am overpaying Taylor Walls. Steamer thinks he’ll be worth negative value, so realistically if I wanted to keep Walls going into 2023, he would need to only be $1 with a lot of upside for that keep to make sense. Second, you can use the same process to see where your league mates stand. If you know your competition is underpaying a few players, you could target them as off-season trade candidates.
2. Use the roster organizer to place cuts on any over-paid players and decide if any players have trade value.
From the way my top five over-paid players table looks, I’ll be clicking over to the “Roster Organizer” tab and making a few cuts. This is a nice tool because it allows you to see how your budget changes depending on what cuts you make. Not all over-paid players need to be cut, but most of them should be cut or traded. Maybe you’re only overpaying by a few dollars and you think a league mate might be interested, slot them into the trade category. On the flip side, you can look for a few players that you are underpaying, but don’t believe in. It’s possible your hunch could be right, but it’s pretty hard to outsmart the projection systems.
3. Analyze your team’s needs for the upcoming season.
Now that you have your roster all organized and tidy, it’s time to figure out what you need for next season. Take your team exactly how it is and calculate the points your players will provide per category. My Ottoneu leagues are all FanGraphs points leagues, so I can take a steamer projection .csv, merge on my players and total out the points they will score based on the projections:
Without being able to compare to other teams, this bar graph only gives me a general sense of my offensive projections, but what I can tell is that my team is full of high-average players. Here’s a breakdown of where my points are coming from:
| Category | Points | Percentage of Total |
|---|---|---|
| H | 13546.4 | 60.8% |
| Doubles | 1412.3 | 6.3% |
| Triples | 182.4 | 0.8% |
| HR | 3543.8 | 15.9% |
| BB | 3009 | 13.5% |
| HBP | 372 | 1.7% |
| SB | 209.0 | 0.9% |
From what I see above, I believe I’ll need to shop for some power this off-season. It’s time to start looking for low-power/high-average players that I may be overpaying and use them as trade chips to acquire more power.
Breaking your and your league mates’ teams down in this way will give you the opportunity to make informed keep/cut, trade, and draft strategy decisions.
Yesterday we looked at league and team data, today we turn our attention to player data. This is, arguably, the more interesting data. It has an immediate impact, since it tells us something about player valuations as we get ready for trade season. It also is an interesting signal outside the Ottoneu universe for the same reason – it’s a signal early in the off-season about how players are being valued. Arbitration data has, historically, influenced my rankings, keeper plans, and more. The wisdom of the crowds can be a powerful thing.
Arbitration wrapped up Monday and before we move onto trade season (though some of you already have), it’s worth looking back at what happened in arbitration and what we can learn from it.
Ottoneu arbitration is wrapping up soon (all allocations and votes need to be in by November 14, at 11:59 pm ET), so now is your last chance to make sure you got it right. For some of you, it means being annoyed your league-mates haven’t finished arbitration yet, and posting messages on your league message board begging them to finish up (note: this is me). For some of you, that likely means panicking, realizing you haven’t done it, rushing to your league site, and getting something in. For some it is just one last chance to make some edits and decide if you are happy.
Which group you fall in determines what you should do this weekend or early next week.
“But wait, Chad,” you say. “You have told us so many times that allocation arbitration dollars to prospects doesn’t make sense! Why even write this article?”
“You’re right,” I reply. “I probably shouldn’t. But I am going to do it anyway. Let me tell you why.”