It’s rankings time so the comments are open for everyone to go batshit crazy about how a computer program and I are wrong.  We are both ready for everyone’s best shot as neither one of us gives a flying  f***.

As part of my soon to be released e-book, The Process, the Standing Gain Points formulas will be included for several league types. I took the one for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, merge it with Steamer projections, and created some overall rankings.

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For the last four years I have run an industry mock draft during the month of September/October. It has been a fun exercise that suits multiple purposes.

1. It is an early look at what the industry feels about the next season, especially because most people don’t have ranks or projections prepared to rely on.
2. September can be a hard month to come up with things to talk/write about.
3. I am a masochist.

This year I decided to turn it up a notch. I started nine separate mock drafts including over 100 different people including industry analysts and a few regular Joes that are fantasy baseball crazy. The mock drafts were all 12-team leagues with one catcher spots. Unfortunately, we were unaware that the software would lock us out when the season ended and that prevented all of them from finishing. However, Leagues 1 and 2 were almost completed and every mock got through at least 155 picks. Thanks to Smada for compiling the ADP and marking all the auto picks (for shame!)

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10/10/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host

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• Playoff talk (2:00)

Notable Picks Outside the Top 100

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In most drafts, I hit a point where I look at my queue and the remaining player pool, and I’m not excited about any of my options. I am currently participating in one of Justin Mason’s 2EarlyMock drafts, and as we enter the final rounds, I have yet to have that feeling. A number of players went in the middle rounds whom I had stashed in my queue several rounds before they were taken. The ones that I drafted felt like tremendous bargains, and the ones that I missed left me envious.
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9/21/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

#2EarlyMock Review

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I posted my first five rounds yesterday and you can check those out here. I was going to post my first nine rounds, but I was minutes away from my 10th pick so I decided to break it up into two 5s.

Round 6, Pick 62: Marcell Ozuna | OF, STL (ADP: 69… nice)

While I was ahead of the ADP on Ozuna, this still felt like a bargain to me. He labored through much of the first half as his shoulder was clearly bothering him, but he’s looked like his 2017 self in the second half with a .303/.353/.527 line and 12 homers in 218 PA. He hit just 10 HR in 377 first half PA and had just a .645 OPS through May. A healthy Ozuna is a top 50 pick.

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If you listen to the podcast, you know Justin Mason started up his Too Early Mock series and we’re off and running with eight leagues hosted by Fantrax. The always-excellent Smada is also running an ADP tracker for all eight drafts. Make sure to follow him on Twitter for plenty of baseball goodness. I’m in league 2, by the way.

So many of these leagues are shark tanks which makes them even more fun because you’re unlikely to really see anyone slip too far. If anything, you’ll have to pop your gems early if you want to land them here. Our very own Al Melchior is in my league as well as personal friends Doug Thorburn and Chris Welsh! Again, the whole group is strong.

Here is the rundown in order of picks:

1. Chuck Anderson
2. Frank Aquila
3. Chris Welsh
4. Brandon Bruckman
5. @batflipcrazy
6. Matt Thompson
7. Al Melchior
8. Doug Thorburn
9. Kyle Bishop
10. Brian Slack
11. Me
12. Mike Tanner

Here are my first 5 rounds and I should have made my 10th pick by tomorrow so I’ll write up those 5 as well.

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Yesterday I posted my first run of a Top 30 for 2019. The comments have been lively discussing players y’all would’ve included or asking about certain players so I figured I’d show you the rest of the pool I was choosing. I had a list of about 70 guys that I whittled down to 30 and there were some tough cuts.

My toughest was Carlos Correa and I think that push-come-to-shove, I’d take him over at least Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw and maybe even Gerrit Cole and Aaron Nola, too. Those four made up the final four of my Top 30. Here are my next 10 in order and then a positional look at the others who were considered:

31. Carlos Correa, SS, HOU: He’s never been bad (lowest wRC+ was 123 in 2016), but he’s also topped 109 games just once (153 in that same 2016 season). He’s already missed a month with his current injury (back stiffness) and isn’t due back for another couple of weeks.

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Every year around this time, I like to look at how the top of the draft is shaping up for the following season and today is that day! Today I also guested with Van Lee and our own Jeff Zimmerman on their podcast, Launch Angle, so give that a listen! I’m not exactly trying to predict the Top 30 in the exact order they will go, but rather giving an early look at how my board is shaping up right now.

1. Mike Trout, OF, LAA

Let’s all point and laugh at those who tried to get cute and take someone else #1 this year. I can give a slight pass to those who took an ace first because of how impactful elite starters are, but the hitters taken over Trout at 1 didn’t make sense then and look especially misguided now

2. Mookie Betts, OF, BOS

Betts wasn’t his best self last year thanks in large part to a .264 AVG, but he also hit 24 HR… the same total he has right now in 70 fewer games! If you’ve listened to the podcast or read my work regularly, you know I push back on using BABIP as a luck-o-meter as if the player has zero control over it, but Betts’ 2017 was a case of BABIP bad luck that showed no signs of sticking around. Not only has he reversed course on the .264 AVG from last year, but he’s now leading baseball at .351!

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… they need Production. That’s it. If anyone says differently, they’re wrong. I’m tired of hearing owners say they want 35+ home runs from first base. It doesn’t matter where the production comes from. Owners don’t get extra points because the home run was from first base or from their shortstop. Home runs are just one category. Other hits, besides home runs, keep the AVG high and can also generate Runs, RBIs, and stolen base opportunities. Home runs don’t have monopoly on run scoring. Owners need to stop tying home runs (or any other stat) to a position and just pick the most productive players.

Today’s rant is being brought to everyone by my Twitter followers. Yesterday I asked them why Eric Hosmer was getting no love with his low NFBC ADP.

I have Eric Hosmer valued as the 28th or 32nd best hitter (z-score and SGP methods). His NFBC ADP is the 46th hitter off the board. Here are my theories for the difference. Which one do you believe is correct?

I have no idea.

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) January 23, 2018

The big winner is power from first base. I’ve never gotten this philosophy of targeting a single stat, like stolen bases or home runs, from a set position. This is especially true early in a draft. In the first 100 picks or so, all the players are average or better. Accumulate as many of these above average talents as possible and then fill in the voids. If the team needs stolen bases, find them now later. Or batting average. Or heaven forbid, home runs.

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