It’s rankings time so the comments are open for everyone to go batshit crazy about how a computer program and I are wrong. We are both ready for everyone’s best shot as neither one of us gives a flying f***.
As part of my soon to be released e-book, The Process, the Standing Gain Points formulas will be included for several league types. I took the one for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, merge it with Steamer projections, and created some overall rankings.
Today, I’ll start with hitters. The 13, 15-team leagues used 14 hitters, standard 5×5 scoring (AVG), 1 catcher, and 2 utility players per team. I’ll post the top 52 here (I want to talk about #52 is the reason for the oddish number) but anyone with at least one projected plate appearance can be found here. I’ll add some unsolicited comments at the end along with these 52 hitters in a head-to-head ranking poll.
|7||Ronald Acuna Jr.||665||.278||93||28||80||25||23.2|
|45||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||550||.306||75||22||77||6||17.9|
- I need to find and scold the FanGraphs playtime projection monkey. Or at least get it off its meds. Stanton at only 575 PA? Miggy at 649 PA? Ohtani at 589? Not everyone is perfect.
- A common thread most owners will need to come to grips with over the offseason is young, unproven players high in the rankings. Acuna and Mondesi in the top-10. Soto in the top-25. Robles top-40. Vlad in the top-50.
- After the first two points sink in, diving back into the list brings out some interesting players. I’ll start with Starling Marte ranked as #8. Going back to the first bullet, 653 PA would be a career high so the number should be brought down. Otherwise, nothing else really looks out of place. In the #2EarlyMocks, he went 33rd overall or the 26th hitter. Owners should be elated to find possible first-round value in the 3rd round or later.
- I did not expect to see Story over Arenado. Steals are just becoming so valuable that even a handful can make a huge difference in the rankings.
- Hitters from #14 to #18 (Altuve, Harper, Blackmon, Stanton, and Rizzo) are the old guard moving down. They are still great 2nd to 3rd round values.
- Down at #22 and #23 are two accumulating first baseman, Goldschmidt and Freeman. Everything is middling here. I could see both pushing themselves 10 spots higher in other rankings
- Bregman at #24. Oh, the humanity. What evil force has Kevin way down here? I’m sure his ranking will spawn off a half dozen comment threads.
- Judge drops to #26. The main reason for his drop is the sub-40 HR total and just the second hitter projected for a sub-.260 batting average.
I could go on and on but for now, it just a nice list to soak in and find those spots of personal contention. Or just completely freakout.
Additionally, I’ve put all 52 names into a polling service with spits out two names and a person can pick the one they prefer. Feel free to vote once or a few hundred times. It’s never-ending.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.