Rounds 6-10 of My #2EarlyMock Draft
I posted my first five rounds yesterday and you can check those out here. I was going to post my first nine rounds, but I was minutes away from my 10th pick so I decided to break it up into two 5s.
Round 6, Pick 62: Marcell Ozuna | OF, STL (ADP: 69… nice)
While I was ahead of the ADP on Ozuna, this still felt like a bargain to me. He labored through much of the first half as his shoulder was clearly bothering him, but he’s looked like his 2017 self in the second half with a .303/.353/.527 line and 12 homers in 218 PA. He hit just 10 HR in 377 first half PA and had just a .645 OPS through May. A healthy Ozuna is a top 50 pick.
Round 7, Pick 83: Aaron Hicks | OF, NYY (ADP: 83… I’m the only one to take him so far)
I guess I could’ve waited on Hicks as I’m the only one in all eight leagues to take him and at least 6 of the 8 leagues are 100 picks deep. I know he’s hitting a meager .244, but he’s one of just 21 players to go 20+ HR/10+ SB this year with 24 and 11. And that’s in just 129 games. Of course, health has been a career-long issue so I don’t want to lean too heavily on the fact that he didn’t play a full season and expect 150+ games in ’19. If he does get that lucky health season, though, a 30/15 in coming.
Round 8, Pick 86: Scooter Gennett | 2B, CIN (ADP: 79.8)
Gennett completely backed up his 2017 breakout with an excellent follow up: .315/.365/.495 with 22 HR, 88 RBI, and 84 R. The Reds offense was once again formidable even with Joey Votto’s power outage. Even if there’s a little dip in the power, I like that he’s hit .307 in the last two years.
Round 9, Pick 107: Matt Olson | 1B, OAK (ADP: 93.3)
I definitely like the Gennett pick on its own, but it’s even more useful in the context of sandwiching a pair of sub-.250 hitters around him in Hicks and Olson. Obviously, more was expected of Olson after he popped 24 HRs in just 59 games last year, but if his 41% HR/FB rate from last year was the absolute high end, I think his 16% this year is pretty close to the low end of what these skills should deliver.
His batted ball profile didn’t change nearly enough to foster a 25-point drop in HR/FB rate so I think there was some bad luck there. His pull percentage did dip eight points, but his flyball rate was essentially neutral (-3 pts to 43%) and he’s hit the ball harder (+7 to 47%). First base just isn’t super-deep, either. I was really surprised looking at the pool as this pick was coming up and felt I had to go with Olson’s 30+ HR upside here.
Round 10, Pick 110: Luis Castillo | SP, CIN (ADP: 97)
Hey, looks who’s back!!!! Dr. Tanner mentioned to me that he was surprised to see me take Castillo after hearing me say on the podcast that I wouldn’t make the same mistake in 2019, but I was meaning that I wouldn’t make the same mistake with a Castillo type… in other words, overdrafting a small sample god who wasn’t a finished product (maybe Jack Flaherty next year… although his 143 IP are quite a bit more than Castillo’s 89 from last year). Castillo was an obvious disappointment this year, carrying a 5.85 ERA through June, but he’s rallied in the second half with a 2.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with a 20% K-BB rate in 74 innings of work. Home runs remain his biggest issue, but he’s improved from 1.9 HR/9 in the first three months to 1.2 since July 1st.
While I was undoubtedly all in on Castillo this year, the one reservation I had was that the Luis Severino comp that many were fond of simply overlooked the sophomore campaign of Sevvy and just hoped/expected that Castillo would jump to the 2017 version. In the end, I overlooked it, too, citing his age and developed changeup as reasons he could skip the trajectory of Sevvy that included the bumpy second season. Castillo is still a budding stud as far as I’m concerned and I’ll be happy to dive back in for 2019, especially at a lower price.
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The team through 10:
C:
1B: Olson (9)
2B: Gennett (8)
3B: Machado (2)
SS: Bogaerts (3)
CI: Rendon (5)
MI:
OF: Harper (1)
OF: Ozuna (6)
OF: Hicks (7)
OF4-5:
UT:
P: Cole (4)
P: Castillo (10)
P3-9:
Whattya think? Here’s the #2EarlyMock ADP board again, who has been over- and under-drafted in your estimation?
The big question mark with Hicks is playing time, no?
On a team with Judge, Stanton, Clint Frazier, and potentially bidding on Harper, where is he supposed to play?
I like Frazier, but I’m very leery of how big a factor he’ll be anytime soon. I also see them much more likely to go for Machado over Harper. Harper just doesn’t make sense w/Judge & Stanton unless they plan on having one at DH. Hicks is an elite fielder, too, so I don’t worry about his PT when healthy (but the *when healthy* is the always the tricky part)
Hicks has a 123 WRC+ and is a good defender. Clint Frazier’s upside is probably Aaron Hicks right now. Seems like a safe job for Hicks if he’s healthy.
Any ADPs that have surprised you at a glance early on? For keeper potential I was hyped to see Mallex Smith at 87.
Need more power
Hmm, care to expound? 30-35 from Harper, Machado, Ozuna, Olson with 20-25 from the rest has me feeling pretty good about my pop, but I’m open to your thoughts.
Plus, after 41 hitters w/30+ HRs last year, we’re looking at a number like 25, maybe 30 this year so HRs have dipped again.
Ozuna is about to turn 28 and has hit more than 23 home runs once in his career. He also doesn’t hit a lot of doubles that might turn into home runs. Penciling him in for 30-35 seems quite ambitious. Overall, I think your team has fine power, but while Ozuna could hit 30-35 it seems clear the under is the better bet there.
Not unfair, but health is the only impediment. He was tracking before a ’16 wrist injury, got in ’17, and was stifled by shoulder injury in ’18. I understand if you question his ability to stay healthy, but he’s essentially a lock for 30 when healthy, IMO
I agree that Ozuna has great power potential when healthy but “a lock” for 30 seems like a wild overstatement. To me “a lock” is something like a 25th percentile outcome, and there’s no way a dude who has exceeded 30 home runs only once–in his career-best year–can be considered a lock. If anyone was a lock for 30 home runs this season it was Matt Olson, and he might not even make it. Maybe this is nitpicking over your wording, but it seems really easy to imagine that even a healthy Ozuna hits just 25-28 home runs.
Thanks for posting theses, Paul. Appreciate your work on this!
Are you hoping to get a steals guy later in the draft? I can see 10-15 from Boggy, Hicks and maybe Machado/Harper, but it seems you may be a bit light in that category.
Ya with steals so sparse, I just don’t feel a need to overdraft them. I’ll get my nickel and dime contributions from the more well rounded studs and then pop a speedster or two later.
looking- Harper tied for 47th and Machado tied for 39th this year. Boggy only had 8, and Hicks with 11…. so between those 4 45 stolen bases.
Except both Harper and Machado are in contract years. Neither of them has run as much in the past, except Harper tends to do it when he is not hitting
Harper has hit double digit sb in 4/7 years and 2 of last 3 years….
Machado double digit in 2 of last 4 years and then a 3rd year with 9.
So both are pretty sleeper guys for a sb.
I’m already excited for the value I’m going to be getting drafting Leclerc and he hasn’t be selected in any of the drafts
thanks paul! i was thinking bogaerts was an overdraft, but then looked at his stats, projections, and xstats.
You’re going to have to get awfully lucky with that pitching staff. I would be happy with Castillo as a #3 but as a #2 you’ll need him to reach upside.
Ya but when isn’t that the case? Pretty much only when you spend 2-3 of your first 5-6 picks on pitching… and even then it’s hardly locked in. Bumgarner, Ray, Darvish, Martinez, Archer, Quintana, Keuchel, and Castillo were all top 100 picks this year and that didn’t exactly work out. I still think chasing early SP is mostly a fool’s errand. I got my ace in Cole and I’m happy to work in the middle rounds with highly-skilled-but-flawed arms from there, incluing Castillo and like 3 of my next 5 or so picks.
I won a nfbc league this year where I hit on all 3 starting pitchers late w ith my first 3 pitchers Snell, Morton, Folty, and closer Treinen. I also got last in an NFBC league where I drafted Castillo and Godley as my first pitchers. It usually takes a lot of luck.
My thoughts exactly. I really like the individual picks (I even like Hicks, but not at that price), but only ending up with one pitcher out of these five rounds seems light. That said, looking at the GDoc, there aren’t that many that you “missed.”
The only one that really stands out to me is taking Ozuna with Strasburg on the table. Your reasoning for Ozuna is very solid, but Strasburg looks like the last “ace” before there’s a big dropoff.
Is going pitching light a strategy for you? Or is it just how the picks played out?
EDIT: I missed that you had already responded to the first pitching post when I posted my first comment. I still would take Strasburg over Ozuna in your round 6, though…
Is Hader being selected as a non-closer RP, or are people assuming he’s going to be a SP next year?
Does it matter? Unlikely to duplicate, but he was a top 5 pitcher
I think it matters a great deal. If he’s throwing so few innings it literally only takes a small handful of home runs to go from a top 5 pitcher to a guy who contributes zero value. There’s Chris Sale upside if he’s going to the rotation and the potential reward would justify the high selection. If he’s a 3-cat contributor (non-closer) then he belongs 50 picks later with the 2nd tier of closers and after all the SP3’s have gone off the board. Right now he’s going with the SP2’s and the elite closers which seems nuts to me.
I follow the brew crew pretty closely and I really really doubt they are going to put him in the rotation. Most likely he’ll be in the same role again.
Gennett went in the 5th round of my #2EarlyMock, so awesome value there!!
These ADPs seem really solid. Not saying he’s underdrafted but Taillon looks like a nice get at 89th overall with his new pitch mix.