I posted my first five rounds yesterday and you can check those out here. I was going to post my first nine rounds, but I was minutes away from my 10th pick so I decided to break it up into two 5s.
Round 6, Pick 62: Marcell Ozuna | OF, STL (ADP: 69… nice)
While I was ahead of the ADP on Ozuna, this still felt like a bargain to me. He labored through much of the first half as his shoulder was clearly bothering him, but he’s looked like his 2017 self in the second half with a .303/.353/.527 line and 12 homers in 218 PA. He hit just 10 HR in 377 first half PA and had just a .645 OPS through May. A healthy Ozuna is a top 50 pick.
Round 7, Pick 83: Aaron Hicks | OF, NYY (ADP: 83… I’m the only one to take him so far)
I guess I could’ve waited on Hicks as I’m the only one in all eight leagues to take him and at least 6 of the 8 leagues are 100 picks deep. I know he’s hitting a meager .244, but he’s one of just 21 players to go 20+ HR/10+ SB this year with 24 and 11. And that’s in just 129 games. Of course, health has been a career-long issue so I don’t want to lean too heavily on the fact that he didn’t play a full season and expect 150+ games in ’19. If he does get that lucky health season, though, a 30/15 in coming.
Round 8, Pick 86: Scooter Gennett | 2B, CIN (ADP: 79.8)
Gennett completely backed up his 2017 breakout with an excellent follow up: .315/.365/.495 with 22 HR, 88 RBI, and 84 R. The Reds offense was once again formidable even with Joey Votto’s power outage. Even if there’s a little dip in the power, I like that he’s hit .307 in the last two years.
Round 9, Pick 107: Matt Olson | 1B, OAK (ADP: 93.3)
I definitely like the Gennett pick on its own, but it’s even more useful in the context of sandwiching a pair of sub-.250 hitters around him in Hicks and Olson. Obviously, more was expected of Olson after he popped 24 HRs in just 59 games last year, but if his 41% HR/FB rate from last year was the absolute high end, I think his 16% this year is pretty close to the low end of what these skills should deliver.
His batted ball profile didn’t change nearly enough to foster a 25-point drop in HR/FB rate so I think there was some bad luck there. His pull percentage did dip eight points, but his flyball rate was essentially neutral (-3 pts to 43%) and he’s hit the ball harder (+7 to 47%). First base just isn’t super-deep, either. I was really surprised looking at the pool as this pick was coming up and felt I had to go with Olson’s 30+ HR upside here.
Round 10, Pick 110: Luis Castillo | SP, CIN (ADP: 97)
Hey, looks who’s back!!!! Dr. Tanner mentioned to me that he was surprised to see me take Castillo after hearing me say on the podcast that I wouldn’t make the same mistake in 2019, but I was meaning that I wouldn’t make the same mistake with a Castillo type… in other words, overdrafting a small sample god who wasn’t a finished product (maybe Jack Flaherty next year… although his 143 IP are quite a bit more than Castillo’s 89 from last year). Castillo was an obvious disappointment this year, carrying a 5.85 ERA through June, but he’s rallied in the second half with a 2.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with a 20% K-BB rate in 74 innings of work. Home runs remain his biggest issue, but he’s improved from 1.9 HR/9 in the first three months to 1.2 since July 1st.
While I was undoubtedly all in on Castillo this year, the one reservation I had was that the Luis Severino comp that many were fond of simply overlooked the sophomore campaign of Sevvy and just hoped/expected that Castillo would jump to the 2017 version. In the end, I overlooked it, too, citing his age and developed changeup as reasons he could skip the trajectory of Sevvy that included the bumpy second season. Castillo is still a budding stud as far as I’m concerned and I’ll be happy to dive back in for 2019, especially at a lower price.
The team through 10:
1B: Olson (9)
2B: Gennett (8)
3B: Machado (2)
SS: Bogaerts (3)
CI: Rendon (5)
OF: Harper (1)
OF: Ozuna (6)
OF: Hicks (7)
P: Cole (4)
P: Castillo (10)
Whattya think? Here’s the #2EarlyMock ADP board again, who has been over- and under-drafted in your estimation?