The Cutting Room Floor from the Top 30
Yesterday I posted my first run of a Top 30 for 2019. The comments have been lively discussing players y’all would’ve included or asking about certain players so I figured I’d show you the rest of the pool I was choosing. I had a list of about 70 guys that I whittled down to 30 and there were some tough cuts.
My toughest was Carlos Correa and I think that push-come-to-shove, I’d take him over at least Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw and maybe even Gerrit Cole and Aaron Nola, too. Those four made up the final four of my Top 30. Here are my next 10 in order and then a positional look at the others who were considered:
31. Carlos Correa, SS, HOU: He’s never been bad (lowest wRC+ was 123 in 2016), but he’s also topped 109 games just once (153 in that same 2016 season). He’s already missed a month with his current injury (back stiffness) and isn’t due back for another couple of weeks.
32. Anthony Rendon, 3B, WAS: I think he’s a bit underrated because he doesn’t do any one thing exceptionally well and his best categories are generally overlooked: AVG and R (.285, 93 full season averages since ’16).
33. Christian Yelich, OF, MIL: The hope was that he’d gain power and speed in Milwaukee with a friendlier park and a team prone to running and while neither category is soaring over previous highs, it is panning out as planned: 24 HR/24 SB pace would be career-highs in both.
34. Trevor Story, SS, COL: Coors Field is a helluva drug. A .322 home AVG has buoyed Story, though his .263 on the road isn’t bad, either, especially after a .256 at home last year. His power unsurprisingly dips on the road, but he runs to make up for it (16 HR, 4 SB at home; 4 HR, 9 SB on the road).
35. Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN: Quietly put together two solid, full seasons in 2016-17 before this year’s surge into a premium bat. Full season average since ’16: .265, 28 HR, 93 RBI, 89 R, 7 SB and while I’m not sure this year’s .305 AVG is his new level, I think he’ll hold some of the gains and be better than the .265.
36. Rhys Hoskins, OF, PHI: Feels like a 30-100 lock with the upside for more. Since returning from the DL, he’s hitting .280 with 12 HR (49 full season pace) after .233, 6 in 52 games before.
37. Xander Bogaerts, SS, BOS: I still see a superstar talent here. I know this is his fifth full season and it’s good-not-great production to this point, but he’s having a fantastic this year and I think it’s scratching the surface of how great he can be going forward.
38. George Springer, OF, HOU: Is he the Adam Jones of his era? That’s not a dig, by the way, Jones had several really good seasons and was even a fringe 1st rounder at one point.
39. Scooter Gennett, 2B, CIN: His R+RBI contributions are overlooked because of Cincy, but their poor record isn’t because of offense. His 123 R+RBI is better than Manny Machado (116) and Rhys Hoskins (121) to name a couple and very close to Aaron Judge (130).
40. Eddie Rosario, OF, MIN: He’s completely backed up his 2017 breakout and could reasonably finish .300-100-30-100 this year.
Other Candidates By Position (ranked by preference)
*added after chat suggestion
CATCHERS:
- Gary Sanchez, NYY
- J.T. Realmuto, MIA
FIRST BASEMEN/DH:
- Joey Votto, CIN
- Max Muncy, LAD (He and Votto were right after Springer, btw)
- Anthony Rizzo, CHC
- Matt Carpenter, STL
- Jose Abreu, CWS
- Jesus Aguilar, MIL
- Nelson Cruz, SEA
- Cody Bellinger, LAD*
SECOND BASEMEN:
- Brian Dozier, MIN
- Whit Merrifield, KC
THIRD BASEMEN:
- Josh Donaldson, FA
- Travis Shaw, MIL
SHORTSTOP:
- Tim Anderson, CWS
- Didi Gregorius, NYY
- Corey Seager, LAD*
- Gleyber Torres, NYY*
OUTFIELDERS:
- A.J. Pollock, ARI
- Tommy Pham, STL
- Lorenzo Cain, MIL
- Wil Myers, SD
- Khris Davis, OAK
- Aaron Hicks, NYY
- Yasiel Puig, LAD
- Justin Upton, LAA
- Michael Brantley, CLE
- Juan Soto, WAS*
- Ronald Acuna, ATL
STARTING PITCHERS:
- Jose Berrios, MIN
- Trevor Bauer, CLE
- Zack Greinke, ARI
- Stephen Strasburg, WAS
- James Paxton, SEA
- Blake Snell, TB
- Noah Syndergaard, NYM
- Carlos Carrasco, CLE
- Charlie Morton, HOU
—
Is there anyone not listed who you’re definitely taking in the top 70 or so?
How are you feeling about Ohtani?
Love the talent, worried about the arm so didn’t consider him here until we get a clearer picture
You literally wrote this entire thing and didn’t mention one Corey Seager
Who?
(an oversight by me… adding now)
Bogaerts over Seager because…
Seager won’t be as good?
Bogie will improve?
Seager won’t play?, or
Other (Including, but not limited to, Bogaerts is already better and I should go check the stats)(Also including “This is a list of who you think WILL be the top 30ish draft picks”, as opposed to “This is a list of who you think SHOULD be the top 30ish draft picks”)?
I can’t quite tell the tone of this comment. Are you preferring Bogaerts? Are you mad about something? I’m genuinely curious bc I don’t want to misread intentions
I am with Sporer on this. I do agree he should of been mentioned, but he is one of those guys whose massively overrated.
I only play auction leagues, but Gleyber Torres should probably be listed- his ISO is better than any mark in the minors (with a meaningful sample size) and the K rate is a little high, but his hard hit % is 43. Plus, even if the power and average drop a bit, the opportunity for R and RBI in that lineup is very high. Meanwhile the potential for the power and average to be real is pretty high given his age and prospect pedigree.
I like Juan Soto more than half the cutting room floor OF … how is he just 19?
Well, it involves something his parents did 20 years ago
No closers for Paul in the top 70?
Nah, I probably won’t get in until rd 6 or later
All depends on your league as we all know. It points leagues the top closers can bring as much value as some of the early round starting pitchers.
Love seeing Muncy and Anderson there. Two guys I have high hopes for in 2019…
Bellinger better than a bunch of the 1B guys you listed
Which ones? I read razzball, but that was clearly the most obvious no way he keeps it up of anyone. I honestly expect more from Olson.
A few guys that I like better than some of the names up there are Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Edwin Encarnacion, Cody Bellinger, and possibly even Mike moustakas depending on what team (offense/park boosts) he’s with
I agree on Segura. He’s plus in BA and runs, decent in steals, and doesn’t hurt in HR and RBIs for a middle infielder. He has less power than Anderson (this season) or Didi, but is generally more consistent than either of them.
Yeah he finished as the #1 SS in 2016 and beat out Anderson last year and just behind Didi and ahead of both this year too… And I actually consider him very high end for R, BA, and SB… He’s top 10 in AL in steals this year plus his RBI production has been great this year (maybe somewhat fluky) and HR is at least not hurting you like you said
No doubt. I didn’t want to overstate his value, but if anything, I undersold it. Since the start of 2016, Segura is tied with Votto for 5th best batting average in MLB, and has the 10th most stolen bases and 15th most runs scored in that period. I think he gets dinged a bit because his numbers have dropped some going from Chase field (pre-humidor) to Safeco, and because he doesn’t walk much, but he’s still producing pretty well in those 3 categories in particular, and his RBIs are up this year too. If folks wanna let me have him after pick 70, I’ll gladly take him yet again.
Acuna?
OK, after seeing Soto was left off, I was like “hmm, ok, whatever… oversight by me, but I could’ve sworn he was on the sheet” and then you mention Acuna and I’m like “OK I KNOW he was on the list, how did these not get in the copy-paste” and I figured it out. My dropboxed filed never loaded on the other computer. So I opened it on my work computer thinking I was picking up where I left off when it was an old version. That explains Soto, Acuna, Seager, and Belly. Everyone else y’all can make fun of me for.
Mitch Haniger?
As a Haniger owner it pains me to point this out, but:
3/29/18 – 4/29/18: 309/384/701, 112 PA, 10 HR, 17 R, 27 RBI, 1 SB
5/1/18 – 7/25/18: 251/352/392, 307 PA, 8 HR, 33 R, 40 RBI, 5 SB
That’s almost half a season with numbers more like the now-punchless Buster Posey or Brett Gardner or Kevin Pillar or Josh Bell. That’s a lower SLG than Mallex Smith and Starlin Castro or Denard Span.
I mean, the strong plate discipline and the primo lineup spot hitting 3rd has helped keep the RBI and the OBP numbers up and I’m in an OBP league so that’s great, but the enthusiasm I had earlier this year has been waning for awhile now.
Yeah, Haniger has basically been cruising on the strength of a ridiculous first month. He does just enough to stay relevant & not cuttable, but I think he’s going to fool a lot of people next year who just look at full season stats.
As a Dbacks fan, I call this a “Kata”. Matt Kata was called up in June 2003 and just killed it for like a month. Something like an 1.110 OPS. He immediately reverted to the no-hit middle infielder he was, but his season-long numbers still looked good as late as late August and even his year-end numbers (.736 OPS) didn’t look too bad for a middle infielder.
Over the next 5 years and 400 PA Kata put up somthing like a .600 OPS
This could also be called the Didi. He’s been very mediocre since the first month.
I love and hate that you have brought this to my attention. Do we give Haniger another year to properly evaluate him? If he was 30 I’d be selling, but I’m cautiously optimistic. I’ll definitely be paying closer attention to him in my dynasty league.
One of these names seems like it really doesn’t belong:
Yasiel Puig, LAD
Not a bad player, very overrated in the context of the rest of the guys on the list
Puig stands out the most. Brantley, Didi, Donaldson are other guys whose placement on this list rely on them having a very good final 2 months.
So you’d put more faith in half a season of Muncy than 3 years of Rizzo? Does this ranking include muncy’s versatility? It seems way to high for an out of nowhere breakout like Muncy’s even if it is backed by the numbers
This is a perfectly fair question and yes I am putting stock into the positional flexibility which pushes him over Rizzo for me. I probably value eligibility as high as anyone in the market because as the injuries pile up, having a guy who can move around and afford you the chance at the week’s best hitter on the wire is a big factor for me.
As I’ve been focused on NFBC a lot more the last 2 years, this has come into play QUITE a bit. They have no DL and just 7 reserve spots so it’s very valuable to have guys who can move around.
Back of the napkin, I’m thinking .275/100/30/100 for Rizzo and .260/95/35/80 for Muncy w/1B, 3B on lock and the potential to add 2B by season’s end or add it in-season next year.
that is an insanely high projection for muncy
Good to hear someone who sees great value in position flexibility. As someone who plays in a daily league I have always valued position flexibility and a strong bench.
Now you know Vlad isn’t going to be around at pick 70.
Acuña averaged 101 ADP without playing in the majors in ’17 and I can’t really see Vlad Jr. pushing much past that. He’ll certainly go in the top 70 in some leagues, just as Acuña peaked at 49, but it won’t be the norm.
I only play in only one roto league and it’s a very deep (ten teams) NL-only 5×5, which colours my opinion. Maybe I’m just a fanboi, but I put great faith in Walker Buehler’s future and I’m grabbing him.
I count myself among the bigger Buehler fans in the fantasy community, but I still think Top 70 would be too high.
What about Castellanos? Getting better every year and soon won’t be in DET
What is the point of this article in late July? Nobody is drafting, so what is the point of making a top 70 players list?
Because a lot people like to look ahead and discuss this kind of stuff. Hell, even you cared enough to make this silly comment! lol