The Top 30 for 2019
Every year around this time, I like to look at how the top of the draft is shaping up for the following season and today is that day! Today I also guested with Van Lee and our own Jeff Zimmerman on their podcast, Launch Angle, so give that a listen! I’m not exactly trying to predict the Top 30 in the exact order they will go, but rather giving an early look at how my board is shaping up right now.
1. Mike Trout, OF, LAA
Let’s all point and laugh at those who tried to get cute and take someone else #1 this year. I can give a slight pass to those who took an ace first because of how impactful elite starters are, but the hitters taken over Trout at 1 didn’t make sense then and look especially misguided now
2. Mookie Betts, OF, BOS
Betts wasn’t his best self last year thanks in large part to a .264 AVG, but he also hit 24 HR… the same total he has right now in 70 fewer games! If you’ve listened to the podcast or read my work regularly, you know I push back on using BABIP as a luck-o-meter as if the player has zero control over it, but Betts’ 2017 was a case of BABIP bad luck that showed no signs of sticking around. Not only has he reversed course on the .264 AVG from last year, but he’s now leading baseball at .351!
3. Jose Ramirez, 3B/2B, CLE
I think some still overlook or don’t realize that Ramirez is 25. His keystone partner is seen as the baby-faced foundational piece for Cleveland, but he’s just a year younger than Ramirez (more on him later). Ramirez has backed up all of his excellence from last year and already eclipsed his 29 HR/17 SB totals from last year at 30 HR/20 SB. Oh yeah, and he’s done it in 99 games. He played 152 last year
4. Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL
Ho-hum, just quietly obliterating the league again. He has improved his OPS every single year: .706, .828, .898, .932, .959, and an NL-best .983 mark right now.
5. Francisco Lindor, SS, CLE
Lindor’s season is panning out perfectly. The hope coming into the season was that he could hold his power gains while also regaining his batting average and that’s exactly what he’s done. He already has 25 homers and has set another career-high in ISO at .268 while also jumping up to .291 after last year’s solid-but-unspectacular .273 mark.
6. Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU
He’s been a disappointment against expectations and yet he’s still 18th on the Auction Calculator and 23rd on ESPN’s Player Rater. The ISO has actually dipped below even his 2015 mark (.146) when he hit 15 homers. It’s at .133 this year.
7. J.D. Martinez, OF, BOS
Since the start of last year, Martinez is third in homers with 76 and he has 220 fewer plate appearances than both guys ahead of him (Giancarlo Stanton 82, Aaron Judge 78). His health had to drop him a few spots as he’s topped 123 games just once and turns 31 next year, but the production is just absurd.
8. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL
Yes, he absolutely is Joey Votto now. Right down to the sneak-tip speed at first base. Freeman has six this year after swiping 14 in 2016-17 combined.
9. Aaron Judge, OF, NYY
“He can’t maintain a .357 BABIP so his AVG has to come down!”
:posts a .375 BABIP and drops his average a whole .001 to .283:
10. Manny Machado, SS, Pending FA
Machado could add 3B eligibility back into the mix for next year if he plays 18 more games there. His first two have been at the hot corner with the Dodgers. Regardless of his eligibility, he’s a monster hitter to put in your infield.
11.-13. Chris Sale, SP, BOS; Max Scherzer, SP, WAS; Luis Severino, SP, NYY
My top three starters going into next year are probably on the table as easy as Freeman for many, but I’m probably waiting until a double-digit pick. I know Scherzer will be 34 next year, but he’s just so incredible that it’s hard to see why he’d slow down. Severino’s follow up to last year’s breakout is almost an exact replica.
14. Bryce Harper, OF, WAS
But he’s hitting .215! If you watch Bryce Harper play baseball and think he does anything that deserves a .215 AVG and not a mark at least 60 points higher, you’re watching it wrong.
15. Trea Turner, SS, WAS
The .263 AVG is disappointing and while the 22 SBs might also feel disappointing, he’s tied for the fourth most in the league. He’s not winning you the category outright, but you shouldn’t be lagging with him. Steals are just incredibly rare so being in the low-to-mid 20s has you near the top of the leaderboard.
16. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, NYY
As I mentioned earlier, he leads the league in homers since the start of last year with 82. Since his bumpy April, he has a .304 AVG and 18 HR (42 full season pace).
17. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI
You can’t even tell that he had that wretched May (.531 OPS) when looking at his line. He did stop running though with just three in five attempts after going 71-for-86 the last three years.
18. Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL
Not just leaning on Coors with an .807 OPS and 13 HR on the road.
19. Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU
He’ll need 12 more games at SS to retain that eligibility. I wonder if he’s just always going to start slowly:
2016: .169 AVG, .469 OPS in first 20 games as a big leaguer; .319, .976 after
2017: .250, .650 in April; .290, .858 after
2018: .259, .741 in April; .294, .997 since
20. Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS
Sometimes the prospect growth is linear! Benintendi has built on his strong rookie season (20 HR/20 SB in 658 PA) with across the board improvements. He’s got a .302/.386/.520 line with 14 HR and 17 SB in 425 PA.
The Next 10:
21. Starling Marte, OF, PIT: His power surge has legitimacy throughout his batted ball profile and when paired with the speed, makes him a fantasy superstar.
22. Javier Baez, 2B/SS, CHC: It feels like we’ve been waiting on him forever, but he’s just 25 and this is a perfectly reasonable trajectory into his first superstar season. It’s a scary profile to buy because the plate approach breeds volatility, but a 25% K rate just doesn’t bother me these days.
23. Jacob deGrom, SP, NYM: Hopefully he’s no longer a Met.
24. Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL: How is he only 21?
25. Justin Verlander, SP, HOU: Age is the only real concern, but he hasn’t shown any age deterioration this year.
26. Kris Bryant, 3B, CHC: Admittedly, it hasn’t been a great season, but I still see a profile to buy.
27. Gerrit Cole, SP, HOU: No, he likely won’t lead baseball with a 5.7 H/9 again next year (assuming he even holds onto the lead this year), but I believe this surge. His stuff is incredible and it’s the Cole we’ve been waiting for since he entered the league. I can see this season being a jump off into a Scherzering of Cole.
28. Aaron Nola, SP, PHI: The hype will soar when he has a strong playoff in October.
29. Corey Kluber, SP, CLE: I know he’s still got a fantastic 2.88 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, but I just worry a bit about his mid-30s with a terrible fastball. Of this whole group, he’s the one I could see dropping several rounds with a clunky finish to this season.
30. Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD: He’s still just so good on a per inning basis that I think I could get behind taking him at the 2-3 turn after picking first.
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Who would you include that I didn’t and which draft spot is looking best to you for 2019 at this point?
I think the #2 or #3 spots look pretty amazing. Getting to start with Mookie Betts or Jose Ramirez and then follow that up with Alex Bregman or Andrew Benintendi would be an amazing start for a team.
If you did that they guy who picked first would have Trout and perhaps Blackmon or Goldschmidt. I would be fine with that.
But having to settle for Altuve and Harper, or Judge and Machado, would be terrible.
You actually had the opportunity to get a few of the elite players in the game this year in a draft – on the whole, rankings were absurd (turner #3 lol). I have a feeling they will be a lot better next year, like the top of this list. I feel like the sickness creeps in during the early teens here – that point where upside begins to cloud judgement, but you have to chase it! That top 10 is damn solid – lets see how many of them end up out of the top 10 for draft season.
Based on this I would want an 11 or 12 spot pick. Choose your starter and then grab one of the next 3 OFers.
I would also say Eugenio Suarez is a fringe top-30 investment. Missed some time due to freak HBP injury but if you project his numbers out to a full season he’s on pace for 40 HRs and 140+ RBI. Not to mention he’s lowered his K% and maintained a BB% over 10%. .304 average and .962 OPS to boot
Suarez was on my board of 50 that I whittled down!
suarez is always underrated
He may be a top 30 player, but you don’t have to draft him there. To that end, might want to not point it out!
Correa outside the Top 30? You’re seven-ish months early on your Bold Predictions column, Paul!
He was first cut at 31 and I really debated him v. the SPs. Big Correa fan for sure.
Correa went number one overall in one of my drafts this year, ahead of Trout, and in none of my drafts was he outside the top five. Has the injury fear really dropped his stock that drastically?
I’m a Pepper You’re a Pepper. Wouldn’t you like to be a Pepper, too?
Correa went top5 in many drafts this year but I think this was a bit premature. He has shown glimpses but he was also injured in most of his years. I see the upside for 30+ homers witha 300 average but he also was injured a few times and never actually showed it.
of course he could break out any day but I don’t see why some people have picked him over bryant, lindor or ramirez who actually did that.
I don’t think this is that bold. SS is amazingly deep right now. The idea that a SS who hits well is necessarily a more valuable asset than a good hitter at some other position is simply not true. With the exception of Catcher, you really can just line guys up based on their projected bat, and almost totally ignore where on the field they play.
If Hoskins or Ohtani have a monster final month and carry teams to championships I can see the market pulling the trigger before Marte, Baez, or Albies in 2019. Same with Votto or Rizzo.
Blackmon looks like a huge landmine to me. Going on 33, big ISO and WRC+ decline, steals have evaporated. No thanks.
I’d prefer the end of the round in 14-16 team leagues. Grab Harper or one of the remaining 2019 “big three” aces and then a Stanton, Goldie, Blackmon or Bregman on the turn. Any of those “second-rounders” could easily revert to high first-round status again.
Not buying Bauer’s breakout? It’s hard to know what to expect from him since he’s such an aggressive tinkerer, but the massive SwStrk% increase supports the jump in K% (although he won’t keep the 0.38 HR/9 going).
He actually has potential to get even better in the 2nd half or next season if he can bring down his walk rate.
What in his history gives you the idea his walk rate will come down?
No Scherzer???
11, 12 and 13 are in the same row.
My bad if that was confusing putting those 3 together. I just know I’ll have so much to say about SPs and will probably do a thorough Top 30 for 2019 in the coming weeks so I didn’t go in depth on those 3.
I actually like that move… not because of the coming analysis, but those are the big 3 – choose one. You are grabbing a SP in round 1 – not for me and I kind of like the idea that it is what it is at that point, which is a risky use of the pick with a potential massive payout.
Trea Turner shouldn’t be that high.
Tim Anderson with almost the same production.
I’m open to this convo bc I’m not sure he’s *unquestionably* belongs Top 15, so I’m curious where you’d have him.
Somewhere in the “next 10”. Where is Story though?
Don’t think he’s there yet either way, but especially if I’m in a H2H league, I want nothing to do with Story. He’s pretty useless any time he’s outside COL.
Not sure how a guy who is slashing .291/.355/.545 with 20 bombs and 13 bags is useless – regardless of format. Home/road splits isn’t anything to get scared of IMO, but I realize Coors can dissuade people.
Ya the home/road thing only matters if you think the Coors player is being moved out of Coors, otherwise I don’t understand why people harp on that when going against a Rockie
I think he’s good up there. People really still seem to underrate steals and it’s only been a year since he stole 46 in <450 PA… Any time you can get serious speed with decent contributions in other categories, that's huge.
Personally I feel like the notion of guys who pile up steals but kill you in every other category gets overstated. The only 2 guys in the top 20 (so more than 14 steals) who are killing you are Hamilton and the Dentist. Granted Mallex, Peraza. Merrifield and Dee it’s pretty much only steals and BA, but all 4 are hitting over .284 and providing at least solid R totals (Mallex is a bit lower d/t less playing time). But literally everyone else in the top 20 provides a lot more than steals; Inciarte is having an off year for BA but projects to finish with 141 R+RBI (& a much higher BA the rest of the way), Tim Anderson has 14 HR and also projects for solid R+RBI totals, Cesar Hernandez has 8 HR and projects for 145 R+RBI. And I assume I don’t need to sell anyone on the rest of the top 20: Marte, Ramirez, Turner, Trout, Baez, Betts, Cain, Benintendi, Lindor, Segura, and Altuve. Heck, even if you expand to the top 30 you’re really only looking at Jose Iglesias as a total zero besides SB.
To me it kind of feels like teams have shifted away from the empty SB players. There just really aren’t that many.
So, a lot of the guys you’re listing are either surprising performers (Peraza, Mallex, Anderson) or players that go in the top 30-50 picks *because they get steals and other stats*. I don’t really think you’ve built a convincing argument here.
The last point you made – teams have shifted away from empty SB guys… that’s why steals are scarce and therefore very valuable.
Turner’s only solidly above average in one category. He doesn’t kill you in RBI or HR, but he’s not a positive contributor there, and if he’s going to hit .270ish instead of .290, he’s not a major asset in average either. I’m not spending a top-15 pick on a one-trick pony (even if it’s a good trick). I would much rather have most of the guys listed after him.
Turner should be about equal to Tim Anderson and Dee Gordon, wherever you’d have them. 45ish?
Turner is a 15-20 HR hitter who could hit 30 in a perfect year and while I don’t think he is a 290+ hitter he at least won’t kill you there.
A guy who is average (for fantasy) in power and AVG and ++ in steals IMO should be above one trick ponies or even a two trick guy like gordon.
anderson he a nice speed/power combo but with his k-BB rate he could easily turn into a batting average black hole.
having a 270/20 HR floor for turner helps.
but I do think he was overranked the last years, he missed a lot of games every year and people just assumed he would be a 300 hitter after one half season.
Based on an unbiased 5-category z-score rating, I had him at 39 pre-season — and that was with 45 projected steals. If he’s more like a 30-35 steal guy, I can’t see him in the top 50.
I am a Turner-truther. I thought his 2017 draft position was absurd, then he disappointed and rocketed up for 2018? That said, I don’t know where I would rank him – probably around 20 if you like him. Personally I would put him late 20s just to pacify people. Wherever Dee Gordon is makes sense. Drafting a speed first player high used to be a known mistake – but this is the one guy that gets off on that count. Its amazing how far his call up carried the perception of his bat. He has an ugly swing – volatility is part of his game. There will be big stretches, but in the end he isn’t a great hitter unless he makes changes. It is cool to see people coming around, but not as cool as watching people waste 1st rounders on him. Scratch all of that – he has to be in the top 5!
Meh, you’re comparing him to Dee Gordon??? You mean .300 OBP .350 slug Dee Gordon? Nah.
Steamers has Turner finishing this year around .280 BA 20 HRs 40 SBs with 90 runs and 70 RBIs. They have his OBP around .340 and slug around .430. His plate discipline and power have both kicked up this year oh and he’s 25, and not yet in prime years for a hitter.
And this year has been down for the entire Nationals team.
Sure, Dee compares in average, runs, SBs but those HRs, OBP, Slug % and RBIs are incredibly valuable when you’re talking about a SS and someone with tremendous upside across the board.
As for his swing, check out this link and tell me those are bad swings…
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=24204360
IMO this is a swing that is being further tailored for power (notice the downward attack, the one-handed high follow through, the fact that he is addressing the bottom half of the baseball). I anticipate his power kicking up as he learns to cut his GB rate further (something he’s actually improved upon from last year). This is the kind of upside you pay for in the top 20 picks.
To conclude, he’s a no doubt top 20 pick in dynasty and the argument for him being top 20 in redraft is rather easy to make IMO.
At the very least, he’s miles more interesting than Dee Gordon if you want the upside that will help you win your league.
Eddie Rosario?
Good call. If he has a big 2nd half, then he is in the conversation but that isn’t exactly a given. Personally, I am hoping that Sano can get back and provide a bit more thump which will provide him some protection and increased run production. Buxton always has a huge September as well. Any help in that offense will benefit Rosario. He has been awfully consistent without much help this year.
Was Soto being seriously considered for a top 30 spot?
No, way too soon. Could see something like top 100 perhaps, but not top 30 on the power of like 400 PA (which is about where he’ll be by season’s end)
Fair for next year, but he is consensus top 15 overall on all the dynasty lists I’ve seen (the dynasty guru, rotowire)
Ya I can see that for dynasty
I feel like it will be very hard to own Soto next year, as he will be drafted top 50 most likely.
For sure! Wait for that rough patch which should happen at some point…
Acuna went top 100 this year, didn’t he?
Soto might have 400 PAs of solid production and supporting stats (ie. plate discipline, batted ball, etc). His forecast alone supports his inclusion in the top 50, alongside other OFs like Hoskins and Springer.
And how’d Acuna work out for people? Love what Soto is doing but if he’s top 50 next year, I think I’m getting shutout
Acuna, through less than 50 games, is performing at a rate on par with hitters ranked near him pre-season. The 100th ranked players we were deciding between at 100 included Adam Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, Chris Taylor, Justin Smoak, Ian Desmond, Matt Olsen. They all have question marks at that spot. 13 combined steals/HRs, acceptable rate stats, good spot in batting order, etc is fair performance through 48 games.
The injury limited his games, but I’m guessing you would agree that a healthy 20 year old has a lower injury risk than other hitters, so it wouldnt be proof that the ranking of a young player was inflated.
I’m not trying to convince you to rank him higher, but I’m letting you know that there are reasons for people to rank these guys highly among the OF crop. Muncy will be an interesting case, too, since he doesn’t have the history of hitting for power, but he has always had the plate discipline.
Hey Paul, do Harper’s contact numbers worry you at all? There seems to be a bit there that would lead to the lower AVG.
If Max Munchy ever gets that 2B eligibility…
I have a feeling that I’m going to be low man on Kershaw. The four-seamer numbers scare the heck out of me.
I aint touching him going forward. Didn’t want to this year either really
Ya as I’ve marinated on it more, I think I’d my #31 guy – Carlos Correa – over him if I was in a draft today
What about Corey Seager? Not saying he should be in the top 30, but where do you see his value after the lost season?
He is the guy I am drafting at SS next year. What a great opportunity. I bet he isn’t ranked super high, but there will be at least one owner like me in your league to over-draft the under-valued player.
No more Rizzo FeelsBadMan
I mean this is a “way too early” list. Riz could still put up 10-12 more donks a steal or 2 and drive in/score a ton of runs on that offense. He slumped first half, and if he keeps slumping he’s not top 30, but the thing with “top players” is that the usually even out over a season’s work
But Mike Trout has never finished #1 overall in fantasy…..
Mike Trout: perpetual disappointment 🙂
It will be interesting to see how significantly this changes in the next 50-60 games.
Answer: Drastically
Top shouldn’t change much. This is how it largely should have been coming into the year. The top doesn’t really have many surprises. Beyond the top dozen, I think it changes a lot but that is pretty subjective territory.
Jose loses 2B next year, at least in Yahoo. 0 appearances there this year. Not that this changes my opinion on the guy and I agree with where you have him slotted.
Muncy at shallow 2B get consideration for the Next 10?
Bauer has to be knocking on that door, too.
I know it’s too soon but based on where Acuna ended up going this year you’re likely to hear this question a lot: where does Vlad Jr. go?
Where’s Tebow?
deGrom will still be a Met after season is over, winter who knows?
I wonder where Story should fit here? Great numbers, Colorado, and a SS. Is Turner really that much better?
Harper should also be listed as pending free agent?
Mostly nitpicking, but I’d certainly take JD over Altuve, and wouldn’t touch Bryant unless major changes are made. He has the background to start hitting the ball hard, but as of right now (when I looked a couple days ago) 198th in average EV of 238 qualified hitters. 125th in max ev out of 238 qualified hitters. 139th in in 95+, , 104th out of 238 qualified in max distance… Basically he is one of the least powerful everyday players in the entire MLB this year.
He’s had shoulder problems all year, might be related..
I thought that as well, but he he “only” hit 29 hrs last year, and only 3 combined in September and October in 2016. Therefore, over his last 1138PA he has 43 hrs. Very, very pedestrian.
So lets go back to last year; 187th out of 334 in Av EV, and in the 60 to 90 range for most power related numbers. The ones he grades out higher in is due to quantity, not average. Basically, he is a better player than he is power hitter, and most his fantasy production is based on playing time and the line up that surrounds him as he really doesn’t grade out far above average on any rate basis.
harper isn’t a .220 hitter of course but he might be a .270 hitter. How valuable is 275 with 30 homers from an OF corner in fantasy? in OBP leagues of course the hit tool plays up due to the walks but in classic leagues his profile doesn’t look that great.
Of course there is upside for 45 homers and also 20 steals and if he does that of course he is a top player even with a 270 but there is also a very good chance that he misses 30 games and gives you a 260 average with 28 homers and 7 steals.
I see harper more as a second rounder.
20 SB is in the rear view mirror. There is really no reason to think he couldn’t completely fall apart – what does this year look like without April? I would bet on early physical decline – that is often the case for man-children. I agree that he is a 2nd – very boom or bust at that, but it is also a matter of value. Someone will be happy to get him in rd 1. Wherever he signs, the press will be insane and the fanboyism should float his value up above where it belongs.
A strong finish could vault Acuna up here given the high ceiling and 5 category skill set, I don’t think it would blow anyone’s mind if he is a first rounder in 2020
I think him making this list is 0%. The SB are not looking like a huge asset. Sure, he might be a 1st rounder in 2020, but there ain’t no reason to pay for that in 2019.
“Hopefully he’s no longer a Met” – My heart aches for deGrom too. I hope he’s not taken away from me and instead the Wilpons disappear from this earth.
As a cubs fan, I can only say that eventually all teams change owners/management, and I hope it happens quickly for the mets
Seems that Bryant’s down year is wholly due to a lingering shoulder problem
Does the ranking for Judge change with his injury? Still a first rounder?
Given that it’s just a three-week recovery timeframe, I can’t see it affecting next year’s ranking. I know it’s a wrist injury, but even if it affects his power the rest of this year, I expect the off-season would remedy that.
Yelich, Rosario, Rizzo had to have been in the just missed section.