The First 5 Rounds of My #2EarlyMock

If you listen to the podcast, you know Justin Mason started up his Too Early Mock series and we’re off and running with eight leagues hosted by Fantrax. The always-excellent Smada is also running an ADP tracker for all eight drafts. Make sure to follow him on Twitter for plenty of baseball goodness. I’m in league 2, by the way.

So many of these leagues are shark tanks which makes them even more fun because you’re unlikely to really see anyone slip too far. If anything, you’ll have to pop your gems early if you want to land them here. Our very own Al Melchior is in my league as well as personal friends Doug Thorburn and Chris Welsh! Again, the whole group is strong.

Here is the rundown in order of picks:

  1. Chuck Anderson
  2. Frank Aquila
  3. Chris Welsh
  4. Brandon Bruckman
  5. @batflipcrazy
  6. Matt Thompson
  7. Al Melchior
  8. Doug Thorburn
  9. Kyle Bishop
  10. Brian Slack
  11. Me
  12. Mike Tanner

Here are my first 5 rounds and I should have made my 10th pick by tomorrow so I’ll write up those 5 as well.

Round 1, Pick 11: Bryce Harper | OF, FA (ADP: 9.3)

I kinda knew I was going to get Harper here at 11. I’ve just generally been higher on him than most and thinking about his .247 AVG and the richness of the first round had me confident that he’d be there. Yes, he’s hit sub-.250 in two of the last three seasons, but I just don’t believe he’s a true talent .240s guy. I’d be perfectly fine with his career .279 mark and I know that an upside over .300 is still there for him (.304 in the 2H this year). I might’ve taken Trea Turner had he been available, but Slack wisely took him at pick 10.

Round 2, Pick 14: Manny Machado | 3B/SS, FA (ADP: 11.4)

I seriously considered Ronald Acuña here, but Machado was too tough to pass up, especially given that I considered Machado for a moment over Harper with that first pick. Slack actually ended up with Acuña right after my pick. The two players Tanner took would’ve also been major considerations: Alex Bregman and Christian Yelich, but in the end I’m very pleased with a Harper-Machado 1-2 punch.

Machado has popped 30+ homers for the fourth straight season, three of which have been good for 35+, including this year’s 35 on the dot so far. The one thing I don’t love about this combo is that both could be in new homes for 2019 and I’m super keen on guys in year 1 of their mega deals, though that’s admittedly more with pitchers.

Round 3, Pick 35: Xander Bogaerts | SS, BOS (ADP: 44.7)

I was one of two people to take Bogy at 35 and we did take him eight picks higher than anyone else and the lowest he’s gone so far is 55. However, league 8 hasn’t taken him yet and they have 56 picks loaded so he’ll reset his floor in that league. After just 10 HR last year, Bogaerts has surged up to 21 this year in 20 fewer games (128 this year). In fact, this output matches his career high, but he popped 21 in 157 games back in 2016. I still think there’s a .300-30-100-100-10 season in Bogy’s future.

Round 4 Pick 38: Gerrit Cole | P, HOU (ADP: 36.9)

I wanted one of the Astros aces for my ace and I thought it was rather unlikely to Tanner would double up on them so I went with Bogaerts in the third thinking that Cole or Justin Verlander would be available. He did in fact take Verlander and matched him with Khris Davis leaving Cole for me. I was very excited to see Cole under the tutelage of the Astros, but he’s even exceeded my expectations with a 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP combo in 187.3 innings.

His 35% K rate is easily a career-best and 12 points better than last year. The home run issue we saw last year (1.4 HR/9) has been curbed with a solid 0.86 mark. He might not repeat a sub-3.00 mark, but he’s easily a fantasy ace.

Round 5, Pick 59: Anthony Rendon | 3B, WAS (ADP: 54)

I actually had Rendon highlighted for my fifth pick right after taking Cole despite so many picks before my next one and he made it! There were definitely some guys I was considering taken before it got back to me including Whit Merrifield (45th), Ozzie Albies (46th), Eugenio Suarez (47th), Cody Bellinger (49th), and Rhys Hoskins (54th), but I just love Rendon’s solid, bankable skillset. His numbers are down a bit this year thanks to some missed time (126 games played), but the .305/.369/.519 line really isn’t that far off his breakout .301/.403/.533 effort from last year.

Tomorrow: my next 5 rounds.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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rhdx
5 years ago

I know he got hurt last year but if you had drafted Bryce Harper at his ADP each of the last 6 years you have probably wound up disappointed in 5 of those years. I certainly won’t argue with the pick, but I’d feel a little sick to my stomach while taking him.

Anon
5 years ago
Reply to  rhdx

I get what you’re saying and I can’t completely say I disagree but I would point out that even in this year that is considered a major disappointment Harper is going to go for 35 HR, 100 R and 100 RBI (34/97/97 as of today with series left against the Mets, Marlins and at Coors to finish the year).

stever20member
5 years ago
Reply to  Anon

not to mention a pretty quiet 12 SB- in a tie for 47th so far this season.

So-
.247 avg t101
34 hr t10
97 rbi 11th
97 runs 11th
12 sb t47

and could wind up 38 hr/110 r/ 110 rbi. In Yahoo Fantasy baseball, he’s the #16 batter for the season so far…. He gets that average up some last 10 days he’ll go up quickly.

rhdx
5 years ago
Reply to  stever20

You both make good points and in some years it isn’t as if he was a bad fantasy player, but I think you really have to believe this is going to be the high upside year to take him in the 1st round. I don’t know why people wouldn’t prefer Machado at that spot, though if you can get him a few picks later that’s great.