Last week, I discussed the early Brls/BBE (barrels per batted ball event) leaders and laggards from the Statcast leaderboard. Let’s continue our look at the metric, this time using my new Statcast fueled xHR/FB rate equation to identify the hitters whose xHR/FB rates are significantly higher than their actual HR/FB rates. The gap suggests these hitters could enjoy an imminent surge in home run power.
Finally. I’ve always wondered why home-to-first times weren’t publicly available. It seems like every other stat is tracked but not the information every scout is tracking. Now I’ve got my hands on the data to analyze. It’s still not publicly available yet but after quite a bit of nagging, I was able to convince MLBAM to let me have the 2016 season data. Here’s my initial breakdown.
I needed to get the data in a useable format with an idea of the hitter’s top speed. Every hitter doesn’t go all out to first base on every play. I wanted just the top times. The problem with just using the best times was many were bunts. Historically, home-to-first times are calculated from contact on a normal swing to when the batter touches first base. Here is an example with Mike Trout.
Last week, I identified and discussed eight American League starting pitchers that have seen their fly ball rate increase most versus last year. Let’s flip the coin this time and check in on those starters that have seen their fly ball rate decline.
Yesterday, I shared with you the top 15 hitters in the Statcast metric Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE). Today, I’ll tackle the bottom of that list, the laggards. These are the batters who have displayed no punch behind their batted balls. Since this list is far more boring and less interesting than the leaders, I will only pluck the fantasy relevant names, and those that are a bit of a surprise. There’s no need to list guys like Billy Hamilton as we know they will sit at the bottom.
Late last season, the wonderful people at MLBAM graced us with a gift from the heavens — a new stat called Barrels. While there’s specific criterion that must be met to be considered a “barrel”, essentially, it’s a ball that a batter hits the crap out of. The stat is available on the Statcast leaderboard, which also includes the total number of batted ball events recorded for the batter. That allows for the calculation of an easy ratio, dubbed Barrles per Batted Ball Event, or Brls/BBE. I used this metric as the primary component of my Statcast-fueled xHR/FB rate. So now that the fine folks over at MLBAM have updated the numbers for the season, it’s time to dive in. Let’s begin by simply checking in on the leaders.
Major League Baseball Advanced Media collects and distributes the hit and pitch tracking data. This data gives the general public some additional information previously unavailable like pitch spin and batted ball angle. The system has almost removed the need for stringers (people who collect batted ball and game data) except for plays wich get immediately described for the Gameday feed. Each batted ball get the designation of a bunt, ground ball, fly ball, line drive, or popup. Sometimes, it’s tough to designate each batted ball type. Today, I am going to look at the triple point for line drives, pop ups, and fly balls.
With all the talk about hitters increasing their launch angles, and therefore they fly ball rates, that would mean pitcher fly ball percentages are rising as well. Remember though that unlike for hitters, it’s less black and white as to whether an increased fly ball rate is a good or bad thing. It’s heavily dependent on context, such as the pitcher’s outfield defense and home park. So let’s take a look at which AL starting pitchers have seen their FB% jump most versus last year and determine whether it’s a positive change or not.
It’s time to understand how ownership trends are playing out this year. I will start by breaking down one of the most common fantasy sites, ESPN. I will go over the batter ownership rates for different league sizes so owners know which players are applicable to them. Additionally, I will find the current replacement level player for each position.
With fantasy experts using ownership rates to help find potential waiver targets, it is important to know each league’s ownership level. Historically, I know I should only worry about players owned in 10% of leagues or less but not everyone plays in 15-team or deeper leagues.
Yesterday, I discussed 10 hitters whose FB% has increased the most compared to last year. So now let’s check in on the other end of the list — the hitters whose FB% has declined the most versus last season. These hitters may be in danger of disappointing in the home run department.
With the availability of Statcast data from the past couple of years, all we hear about now is exit velocities and launch angles. Armed with new data, players are adjusting and learning to become the best versions of themselves. We keep hearing about hitters that are increasing their launch angles, which is just a fancy way of saying they are hitting more fly balls. More fly balls usually results is more home runs. And home runs are good. The league fly ball rate currently sits at its highest mark since 2011, but since the HR/FB rate is at a historical high tied with last year, home runs are flying out like never before.
