The AL SP FB% Decliners

Last week, I identified and discussed eight American League starting pitchers that have seen their fly ball rate increase most versus last year. Let’s flip the coin this time and check in on those starters that have seen their fly ball rate decline.

As often happens when comparing one year to the next, Yovani Gallardo’s FB% difference is inflated because he posted his highest rate since 2008 last year. So this is simply reverting back to his previous levels. What’s interesting about Gallardo is that his average fastball velocity dropped below 90 mph for the first time last year, and it’s gained back about two miles per hour so far. That’s a significant jump for a 31-year-old. It has led to his highest SwStk% since 2011, but all those whiffs are somewhat offset by a career low in called strike rate. So his strikeout rate has barely improved. While he remains nothing more than an AL-Only option at best, his prospects look a bit better now than they did during draft season.

Things were going swimmingly for Ariel Miranda until he imploded during his last outing by allowed eight runs in just 3.1 innings. That took his ERA up from 3.55 to its current 5.20. He has posted essentially the same underlying skills as last year, but with a sharp reduction in fly ball rate. That’s not automatically good since the Mariners boast an excellent outfield defense, but since he doesn’t strike out a lot of guys, it certainly helps to reduce his homer rate (though it hasn’t yet due to an elevated HR/FB mark). His slider is pretty good, getting whiffs and grounders, but nothing else stands out. It’s doubtful he makes it all season in the Mariners rotation.

Except for his SwStk%, which sits close to his career high mark last year, all of Danny Duffy‘ other peripherals look similar to his pre-2016 years. It makes 2016 look like the obvious outlier, rather than the new Duffy we should come to expect now. I was concerned last year about Duffy’s velocity ticking down as the season wore on, and now his fastball is averaging its slowest speed in his career. Still, I’m hesitant to recommend giving up on him simply because he’s still inducing whiffs. The things is, his ERA stands at a solid 3.50, nearly identical to his mark last year. If someone isn’t paying attention, they may not realize the skills don’t support the ERA like they did last year and perhaps a sell high opportunity will come your way. In that case, I’d take advantage and run. Before you ask, my preemptive answer for a pitcher to target off the top of my head is Jeff Samardzija, who you could probably acquire easily and even perhaps get another piece added for Duffy.

It’s not totally fair to include Yu Darvish here because the real reason his FB% is down is due to a crazy high 29.5% line drive rate. That’s going to come down significantly, and many of those liners will become flies. When that happens, Darvish will be back in the high 30% to 40% range like he’s always been. His velocity has been good, but he hasn’t generated quite the swings and misses that we’re used to. I still worry about pitchers coming back from TJ surgery, even though he enjoyed a successful return last year. With a sub-3.00 ERA, he’s another guy you might want to consider moving if you could get top value for him.

Gosh, do solid starting pitchers get more boring than Matt Andriese? Here, the reduced fly ball rate might not be all that attractive as he has one of the best, if not the best, fielder in baseball running down his fly balls, while Tropicana Field suppresses homers. He’s managed to avoid an inflated ERA despite a 19.4% HR/FB rate thanks to a low BABIP and above 80% LOB%. When the LOB% normalizes, he’ll return to being just a deep mixed and AL-Only option, rather than the shallow mixed asset he appears to be now.

Daniel Norris is in the same situation as Darvish in that his FB% is down simply because they’ve become liners. And sure enough, the high LD% has resulted in a .356 BABIP. And check out that 40%+ Hard%! The weird thing is that with all those apparent hard contact against, his HR/FB rate sits at just 5.7%. Explain that one to me! His velocity spike enjoyed last year has been sustained for the most part, which is a good sign, but his fastball hasn’t induced nearly the swings and misses for some reason. Leave him for AL-Only leagues.