Early Barrels Per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE) Laggards

Yesterday, I shared with you the top 15 hitters in the Statcast metric Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE). Today, I’ll tackle the bottom of that list, the laggards. These are the batters who have displayed no punch behind their batted balls. Since this list is far more boring and less interesting than the leaders, I will only pluck the fantasy relevant names, and those that are a bit of a surprise. There’s no need to list guys like Billy Hamilton as we know they will sit at the bottom.

Xander Bogaerts continues to confuse us all, as he’s changing again. In 2014, he owned the type of batted ball profile of a future power hitter. Then he totally changed things up and stopped hitting fly balls in favor of ground balls. He also stopped pulling it and went with an all-fields approach. This was a boon for his BABIP, but killed his power. Then last year he settled in the middle and he enjoyed his best offensive season of his career.

Now he’s back to a new trick! He’s hitting ground balls galore, at an even higher rate than in 2015, but is swinging and missing and striking out less frequently than ever before. That additional contact is costing him power, as he has yet to barrel up a ball or homer. It’s anyone’s guess what the rest of the season brings, but whatever he does, he’s unlikely to break even for the owners that overpaid for his services this season.

Not only is Alex Bregman hitting fewer fly balls than during his debut last year, but he’s hitting with absolutely no power. A .057 ISO is quite the disappointment a month into the season. And that’s supported by zero barrels! A lot looks good though like his excellent SwStk%, strong walk rate, solid batted ball profile, aside from all the pop-ups. I’m seriously not sure what I would recommend here. While his lack of barrels supports the lack of power, that doesn’t mean he’ll keep failing to barrel the ball up. It is his first full season, so an adjustment and breakout could come at any time.

Dustin Pedroia represents an interesting discrepancy between Brls/BBE and Hard%. If you look at the former, you come away thinking he’s displayed limited power this season. And yet, his Hard% sits at a robust 40%, well above the league average, and a mark higher than in any previous season. Perhaps the majority of his Hard% is composed of ground balls or line drives without the necessary launch angle to be classified as a barrel. Because he’s still hitting the ball hard, this seems less worrisome.

Kevin Kiermaier looked like a nice under the radar sleeper to go 15/30, but he has just one homer, has seen his fly ball rate slip, and has just one barrel all season. He’s swinging and missing more often, though not to the degree that would suggest this significant a jump in strikeout rate. I’d be open to buying here, especially in OBP leagues, as he shouldn’t cost a whole lot.

Boy oh boy, what happened to Yulieski Gurriel’s power? He posted a career .245 ISO in Cuba and knocked 250 homers (a homer every 18.9 at-bats), but owns an ISO about half that in MLB, with just five homers (one every 46.4 at-bats). Though 232 at-bats still remains a relatively small sample size, I feel like it’s large enough to get some idea of how well his power translates. And since he’s already 32, this may just be who he is. Aside from the lack of power, he has walked just twice. I’m really not sure he ends the season as the Astros starting first baseman.

Lorenzo Cain is stealing bases, doubled his walk rate, and cut his strikeout rate to a career low. But his power has been non-existent. Since his power has been up and down, it’s been hard to get a good read on expectations.

You wouldn’t have realized it, but Zack Cozart’s power has disappeared. He has doubled his walk rate too and his offensive production has been propped by a ridiculous .425 BABIP, but just one barrel suggests that his current .245 ISO is in for some serious regression. That’s been boosted by four triples, which I’m guessing were down the lines, perhaps some poor defense, that he was able to just leg out. If you’re an owner, don’t feel like you’re set at shortstop.

You have to assume that Adrian Gonzalez’s back has played a role in his lack of power. And at age 35, it would be silly to assume that even when he returns, he’ll be all better. I wouldn’t want him as my starter.

Speaking of injuries, there should be little doubt that Gregory Polanco’s power has been hampered by the shoulder issues he dealt with in the spring. Perhaps he’s still not at 100%. At least he’s swiping bases and his walk and strikeout rates are at career bests. He may make for a nice buy if only because hitters usually suddenly become healthy with little warning and his perceived value can’t get much lower.