The AL SP FB% Risers

With all the talk about hitters increasing their launch angles, and therefore they fly ball rates, that would mean pitcher fly ball percentages are rising as well. Remember though that unlike for hitters, it’s less black and white as to whether an increased fly ball rate is a good or bad thing. It’s heavily dependent on context, such as the pitcher’s outfield defense and home park. So let’s take a look at which AL starting pitchers have seen their FB% jump most versus last year and determine whether it’s a positive change or not.

It’s been a mighty strange season for Matt Shoemaker. The strikeouts have been there, but his strike percentage has dropped to a career low, which has more than doubled his walk rate into the double digits. Then there’s that batted ball distribution. Sure, his FB% is up significantly, but his GB% is up too. Why? Because he has allowed the lowest line drive rate in baseball! So all those previous line drives have become mostly fly balls and some grounders. All those numbers should normalize and you would have to imagine his control returns, so he should be fine. He also does play in a good park for a fly ball tendency.

Boy, oh boy, what has happened to Jordan Zimmermann?! His ERAs since 2014 have gone 2.66, 3.66, 4.87, and now it stands at 6.18! Since his strikeout rate continues to decline, he simply cannot afford to allow more fly balls. More flies = more homers. And he isn’t even getting the benefit of a low BABIP from those flies as he has allowed a ridiculous 28% line drive rate! I don’t think you need any more reasons to jettison him from your roster (wait, you own him?!?!), but let this be it. Do not let him ever sniff your fantasy team.

Seems like every year we think that all Trevor Bauer needs is improved control and the breakout is his for the taking. Well, he posted a career low walk rate last year and still finished with an ERA over 4.00. Now he’s gone back to his fly ball ways after inducing fare more grounders than ever before last season. Last year now looks like the outlier in fly ball rate as he had always been around 40%. I still feel like one of these years, he’s going to have a season where he puts it all together with no warning. Impossible to guess when, or even if, this is actually going to happen.

If there’s one quibble with James Paxton’s season, it’s that his ground balls have disappeared. One of the reasons I was a huge fan in the past was because of his strikeout stuff and ground ball ability. It seems quite nitpicky now of course to care about his ground ball rate when he’s striking out 30% of the batters he has faced, but it’s something to keep in mind when that strikeout rate drops, as it surely will.

Did you know that Miguel Gonzalez has posted sub-4.00 ERAs in four of his five seasons and sits at a tidy 3.27 mark so far this year? Did you also know that his SIERA marks have been at least 4.34 every year of his career? He owns a 3.78 ERA and 4.47 SIERA. Someone analyze him as the least talked about SIERA beater!

Ervin Santana owners must be feeling pretty, given his five wins and microscopic 0.66 ERA. Of course, you knew some semblance of luck had to be involved, but you were wrong. A huge semblance of luck has actually been involved, not just some. His BABIP sits at .141, and he has stranded a crazy 99.2% of the batters that have reached base. His 4.14 SIERA is right where it always is. And all these extra fly balls are no good, especially when balls start falling in for hits, leading to more baserunners, and potential multi-run homers. He makes for an obvious sell high, but since Santana is such an established veteran, is anyone really buying high?

Ricky Nolasco is having his typical season, but his fly ball rate is above 40% for the first time since 2010, and this would represent a career high. That’s bad for a guy who sits in the teens in strikeout rate, as that’s a bunch of extra fly balls. Luckily, he plays in the same home park as the biggest FB% gainer discussed above, which will cap some of the potential damage.

So the good news is that Danny Salazar’s strikeout rate has pushed above 30% as he has finally stopped throwing a ton of fastballs and has swapped out some of them for his devastating changeup. See how easy that is? Reduce the frequency of your fastball for your best secondary pitch, and voila, more strikeouts! His walk rate still remains too high though, but his strike percentage actually sits right at his career average. The extra fly balls are less concerning for a pitcher who allows so few balls in play. His health remains the biggest question mark for me, but so far, so good.