Archive for Keeper Strategy

Be Patient When Taking Over A Roster

So you’ve joined a new, established keeper league. Or maybe it’s a dynasty, ottoneu, or some other deep format. The team that was abandoned has a couple good guys on it. Or maybe it doesn’t. Clearly, it’s not ready to contend. You have some rebuilding to do.

I bet I know the very first thing you’re going to do – shop your best veterans. In fact, if my experience is any guide, you’re going to really rush into the trade market. Both feet in, taking the best offer on the first day without getting to know your leaguemates, shopping offers, or researching past trades. You’ll swing deals with the zest of A.J. Preller, except instead an ill-fated attempt to contend, you’ll probably acquire a bunch of prospects who are one to five years from any fantasy contributions. And we all know how heartbreaking prospects can be (oh, hello there Fernando Martinez).

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Improved Playing Times Estimates

Fantasy baseball season is upon us and interest will probably spike once Super Bowl L is over. Since I may be considered an expert in fantasy baseball, I get asked questions about this or that player. Who is a sleeper? And tons of keeper questions. With these questions, I follow three rules.

  1. Take the younger player.
  2. Take the more talented player.
  3. Take the hitter.

Sometimes the questions are a little harder to answer and the answer can be a little fuzzy with so many possible inputs and outcomes. Quite a bit of the analysis I see and hear are people just making up values. I have found I can’t go with my gut and some semblance of an intelligent answer should be constructed.

I know I have a few more resources than the average fantasy owner and I would like to put those resources to work. I have taken various questions I have seen discussed and have come up with what I hope are some more intelligently constructed answers.

The two items I will use for most of the analysis is public opinion (from Twitter polls) and historical data. With the polls, I can use the information from the crowds to at least get a consensus of public opinion. The public could be wrong, but at least I have a reasonable anchoring point to start the discussion. With the historic data, the average and range of values can be known.

Here are some questions I have pondered this pre-season and my current answers.

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More Keeper Questions Answered

Hard to believe, but it’s almost February.  Almost all the top free agents have signed.  It’s almost prospect season, and it’s almost time for pitchers and catchers to report.  All these things add up to a baseball season that is almost here.

Patience.

But patience is a luxury we don’t have these days in fantasy leagues like Ottoneu that have a keeper deadline (January 31st) fast approaching.  Auction formats make player valuation even more complex, and now that it’s crunch time, tough decisions need to be made.  How comfortable are you hanging onto that $20 Corey Dickerson while the risk of a possible trade out of COL remains a real possibility in February or March? Despite the power and the incoming fences, how does Giancarlo Stanton’s unavoidable injury history influence your decision to keep at $56? How much value, if any, has Zack Greinke really lost moving to Arizona? Is he a $35 starting pitcher? Everybody loves Kyle Schwarber as the next best thing (C and OF!), but where’s the line? $20? $25? $30?

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Redrafting Potential Keepers

Earlier in the month, I spent a week focused on your keeper dilemmas. One of the most popular formats is the Keep X league (if you recall your algebra lessons, X equals some number). There’s usually a cost associated with keepers. In a keep five league, either you lose your first five picks in the draft, or your keepers have an unique value assigned to them.

Both scenarios can leave you with head scratching trade offs. It’s common for two or more players to be on the keeper bubble. Based on current information, there could be more than one “correct” pick for your final keeper. This is when owners usually talk about which player they can reacquire in the draft.

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You’re Keeping Too Many Players!

Am I keeping too many players?  This is a question I am constantly asking myself as the Ottoneu keeper deadline approaches. Typically, Ottoneu leagues keep over 200 players (around 230-240) but what is the optimal amount?  Certainly it’s extremely league dependent, but is there a general way we can get an idea of how many players actually should be kept? First, we need to answer a couple questions.

Why does it matter if I keep too many players?

 Ottoneu championships can be difficult to win. If you want to increase your odds in the offseason, the main way to do so is to acquire players who are underpaid via offseason trades. These surplus assets allow you to enter the auction with more flexibility, often allowing you to purchase more talent at market value than your rivals. However, trading for surplus assets is only half the battle. Throughout my 4 years playing Ottoneu, I have witnessed many teams trade for surplus talent only to “waste” the benefit they receive from these players by keeping overpaid or marginal players.  The two often negate each other.  We want to trade for underpaid players, but we also want to be conscious of the impact of keeping overpaid players.

Let’s say that you currently own Francisco Lindor at a $10 salary and you believe he is worth $15 (a $5 underpay).  On the same team, you also own Salvador Perez at $8 and Brandon Phillips at $6 (both of whom you think are worth $3). Perez and Phillips combine to be overpaid by $8. This a simple example for convenience, but the net impact of owning these 3 players is to overpay the group by $3.  Each non-surplus asset owned counteracts the surplus assets you have worked hard all offseason to acquire. Owning a $10 Lindor is fun, removing the benefit you receive from a $10 Lindor before the annual auction even occurs is far less fun.

How many players should be kept?

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What is Ottoneu?

So, what is Ottoneu?

Ottoneu is a smarter, better brand of fantasy baseball.  By design, it’s a fantasy platform engineered for the hardcore baseball fan that doesn’t enjoy the term “off season”.  Ottoneu is the perfect fit for FanGraphs readers looking to join a competitive fantasy baseball league with a lot of cool features, a sabermetric-economy, and a massive community of raving fans.

You can read first-year feedback from Ottoneu players here.  You can also learn a lot more about the game from the FAQ, but here are the top 10 reasons you should consider joining or moving your fantasy baseball league to Ottoneu this year:

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When Plan A Fails

There’s a saying – nobody cares about your fantasy team. Generally speaking, it’s true. When people in the real world find out I’m a fantasy baseball writer, they’ll start telling me about their team. Usually, they play in a hopelessly shallow format. My eyes glaze over. I nod in the right places. I think about the chores I need to finish in the next few days.

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Does Everybody Own Kyle Schwarber?

I’d like to thank everybody who participated in Monday’s Your Keeper Questions, Answered. As of now, the post has received 422 comments, about 150 of which are me responding to questions. After a jet lag fueled marathon session from 1 to 7 am on Tuesday morning, I’m about tapped out on keeper advice. Feel free to ping me on Twitter (@BaseballATeam) if I didn’t get to your keeper conundrum.

Today, let’s chat about a common keeper option. On the whole, FanGraphs readers appear to have been very likely to acquire certain fresh breakout stars like Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant, Jacob deGrom, and Jake Arrieta. One player who seemed to appear in every question was Kyle Schwarber.

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Your Keeper Questions, Answered

Not long ago, I wrote about Carlos Carrasco as a potential (but probably not) top five pitcher. The comments section of that article unexpectedly turned into a keepers quiz. Should I keep Luis Severino or Steven Matz? Which two of Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Cole Hamels should I hang onto? If an article about Carrasco bubbled over into keeper questions, then surely there is demand for third party input.

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Strategic Spite

My ottoneu rivals are conspiring against me. Not really, it just feels that way because several have reached a conclusion that is not beneficial to me. Luckily, I have some options. And if those don’t work, I have one final spiteful course of action available.

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